Looking Forward to the 2021 AFC North

Couldn't find a way to combine them. And you are correct it was regular season plus playoffs. I can't screen shot the whole page because it's too big so did a screenshot of the top so you can see:



Lamar 2019



Baker 2019

 

Lamar 2018



Baker 2018

 

Don't have a lot of time but will come back to this. The reason I subscribe to PFF is for the data. I could care less about their grades. I think you can take a lot away from the data. Did anyone notice how much of Baker's 2020 production came on throws around the LOS?

The Lamar data fits in pretty well with what I see from him on film. If you allow him to throw the ball in the middle of the field he can be very productive. If you force him to throw it outside he is inconsistent. It's pretty much the only way to beat him but it only happens if you can first stop the run. The blueprint to beat the Ravens isn't so hard to diagnosis. Executing it is very hard. Very few teams have been able to do it.

 

P.S. There are plenty of other reports with "grades" if you want to see them. I don't pay much attention to those. I like the reports that show all the raw data. The Pressure report is an interesting one. If I get time later I'll throw it up.

 

Lamar faced pressure on about 37% of his dropbacks. Only 7 QBs faced more pressure. Darnold, D. Jones, Cousins, Wilson, Mullen, Wentz, Allen.

Baker faced pressure on about 26% of his dropbacks. Only four QBs faced less pressure. Brady, Rodgers, Rivers and Roethlisberger.

The best passing grades against pressure...?

Herbert 75.4 (Wow!!!)
Mahomes 72.1
Wilson 67.1
Rodgers 65.4
Rivers 64.8
Watson 63.3
Jackson 62.7
Allen 62.7
Brady 62.5
Murray 56.8

The bottom five...?

Lock 26.5
Goff 37.2
Wentz 37.2
Mullens 38.2
Mayfield 41.0

But again. That's grades. Take it as you will.

 

I appreciate the info, beach. Whereas I did ask to see the grades, I agree that the data is the most interesting. Here's how the two look when it's all combined

Baker Career
Deep - 90 of 209, 43.1%, 2780 yards, 13.3 ypa, 24 TDs, 14 INTs, 100.42 passer rating
Medium - 204 of 373, 54.7%, 3324 yards, 8.9 ypa, 20 TDs, 14 INTs , 87.03 rating
Short - 473 of 637, 74.3%, 4073 yards, 6.4 ypa,, 32 TDs, 15 INTs, 97.54 rating
Behind LOS - 209 of 230, 90.9%, 1405 yards, 6.1 ypa, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 94.66 rating

Lamar Career
Deep - 54 of 142, 38%, 1742 yards, 12.3 ypa, 21 TDs, 7 INTs, 104.02 passer rating
Medium - 130 of 239, 54.4%, 2256 yards, 9.4 ypa, 23 TDs, 8 INTs, 104.87 rating
Short - 390 of 506, 77.1%, 3381 yards, 6.7 ypa, 24 TDs, 8 INTs, 103.38 rating
Behind LOS - 108 of 121, 89.3%, 603 yards, 5.0 ypa, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, 95.7 rating

I'm not computer savvy enough to be able to put this in a chart, so it may be hard to read. This all pretty much falls in line with what I've been saying. Baker definitely wins the volume categories, no question there. But as the ratings indicate, Lamar has been better as a passer on most levels when it comes to actual passing performance/efficiency. Baker has been pretty damn good at the deep pass though, but then again I've never said he was a bad QB or a bad passer.

 

Thanks beach!


Whewwwww!! It’s a good thing the Browns have the best offensive line in the NFL!

 

I appreciate all the PFF stats. Good stuff.

Question for @beachbum

Just curious...Do you think the Steelers have the heir apparent to Ben on the Roster now? if not, is there a future prospect or trades you have in mind? We can probably both agree that Ben doesn't have a whole lot left in the tank.

I've read several recent articles suggesting the Steelers are on the edge of a complete rebuild.... Just wondering your thoughts?

 

Another interesting subject!

Keep em coming with 3 1/2 months to go to kickoff

 

He's never been the same since Kitchen's 2019.

 

Freddie Kitchens could very well be Adam Gase 2.0

 

No I don't think his heir apparent is on the roster. But I don't think that is as devastating as people make it out to be. Tomlin is over .500 in games Ben hasn't played and those are situations where they have poured every resource, financial and otherwise into having him back there. Imagine how well he could do if they actually prepared to play with someone else and didn't have the financial burden that Ben has been for 15+ years? The guy went 3-3 with Duck fucking Hodges. Ben has been a good QB and his game was really special when he had the athleticism he had in his 20s. But over the past 5-7 years he's not been the same guy.

Not really. I'd like to see what a more mature Haskins might do but I think the game has evolved in a way that getting a QB is not as hard as it used to be. The Steelers moved up to #10 to get a linebacker. They can do it for a QB.

I assume he doesn't but I don't know the status of his elbow. He was playing pretty well until about Week 12 last year. Did he throw too much on a newly rehabbed elbow? Sure looked like it. Would a more balanced offense allow him to keep his arm strength? Has another off-season allowed him to strengthen it? Lot of info I'm not privy to. I just wish they could rehab his brain in a way that would make him understand moving the chains on 3rd and 3 is better than throwing it 50 yards down the field.

I find that shit hilarious. This is a team with a lot of really good young talent. And they draft really well. Kevin Dotson will be one of the best guards in the division this year and few people outside of Pittsburgh has ever heard of him. You would think after the last 20 years people would just stop trying to predict their downfall but it continues to happen. They will compete and challenge for the division. It's what they do.

 

Actually, all I got out of all that is... BLITZ THE SHIT OUT OF LAMAR!! Gameplan begin and gameplan end...

 

Hmmm. Against, according to the grades, the 7th best QB against pressure.....leaving less defenders to cover or tackle him should he escape the pocket. I like this strategy

 

Pressure or no pressure, his numbers are their worst against the blitz, which tells me he can't adjust from his pre-read as well. Blitzing doesn't have anything to do with pressure. Some teams get more pressure from their base, or stunts and don't use the blitz schemes as much. But, if you can rattle a QB using the blitz and causing him to react too quickly because of what he conceives as a mis-read of the defense, then that is just as good as pressure.

For Baker, the key is getting him under pressure. Teams have only been successful in doing that 20% of the time in 2020. If teams can figure out how to beat the best offensive line in the NFL, then they have a good chance of making Baker make a mistake.

For Lamar, it isn't pressure, he simply reacts to pressure and adjusts, as long as his pre-read was right. Stunting disguises is the way to his kryptonite. Teams have only blitzed him 25% of his snaps. You need to learn to exploit if you want to confuse and win against Lamar. If he is confused, his numbers drop, that is the key. Blitzing from stunts will either cause him to throw prematurely, even without pressure, or change to a run play. Regardless of that decision, when blitzed, it is his lowest percentage of "win" on adjustment... according to the numbers. It's funny how Berry went out and got players like John Johnson III who is capable of holding the defensive back half of the field, so that players can move from all directions in a blitz scheme.. Or JOK who has already built a college career being able to play 3 different positions all at the same time, he can drop into a deep 3rd zone safety position, he can move up into a slot corner and play traditional/coverage linebacker. You can have 3 different schemes in play while he is on the field. Players like Myles Garrett who is disruptive, while getting someone like Clowney who can concentrate on stopping the run, basically shutting down one side if you are going to scheme a running attack against them.

Baker on the other hand adjusts very well to a blitz, his numbers actually go up because he is very good at reading a defense. He gets a good pre-read, but also sees blitz packages very well. It tells me he is very good in the class room. He understands his opponents before they ever hit the field. His down fall is getting comfortable when they don't scheme, stay in their normal defense and just say, beat us. He gets cocky when it is too "easy" of a defense to read and he makes mistakes.

All of this is correctable of course for both players. But until Lamar learns to read a defenses tendencies, I would blitz the shit out of him. The Browns have the personnel to do just that. It will take some time to get everyone on the same page and the NFL did us a HUGE favor scheduling the Ravens in weeks 12 and 14. Injuries are what could be the Browns downfall, otherwise, I expect big things.

I haven't done a schedule check yet this year, so..

IF, and I don't expect it, we could pull out a victory week one AT Arrowhead Stadium..

Week 1 @Chiefs (remember I don't think this will happen, but if it did..) W
Week 2 vs. Texans, this is a victory whether Watkins is playing or not W
Week 3 vs. Bears, I am high on the Bears, but with a new QB at the helm week 3 into the season, I think we take this one at home W
Week 4 @Vikings, This one actually scares me if we win week 1. A team sitting at 3-0 can get cocky and a letdown game can happen. I don't think it does W
Week 5 @Chargers, This is a scary team. I think they will still have some growing pains, but flying out to the West coast to play a team with a hot streak, I think we falter L
Week 6 vs. Cardinals, I don't believe in their defense, I do believe our defense will be coming into their own right around now and I don't think Kyler Murray is the 3rd best QB we will have faced at this point. W
Week 7 vs. Broncos, no mile high altitude to deal with, the Broncos are still searching for a signal caller. This might be the most lopsided win to date unless they get Rodgers. W
Week 8 vs. Steelers, Will Ben still be healthy after playing Seattle, Denver, Green Bay and Buffalo. 4 top shelf sack teams in the NFL. I know Beach, "Same old Steelers" I don't think so. W at home
Week 9 @ Bengals, They just aren't ready yet. They will get Burrow back, and he should help them stay close, but this isn't a team ready to compete in the North yet. I think they go 0-6 division. W
Week 10 @Patriots... dammit, I hate letdown games, but Belichick has got this roster back in check with Brady's absence. I think they will be a tough out in Foxborough. L
Week 11 vs. Lions, Is Goff an upgrade? No, well then this team will struggle in 2021. W
Week 12 @Ravens, the only thing the NFL did that hurt the Browns was scheduling the Ravens AT HOME for the first meeting. After 11 weeks of competition and the Ravens their bye week 8 to be more rested, I don't truly believe we are ready to sweep the AFC North L
Week 13 Bye
Week 14 vs. Ravens, we have a week to prepare for the Ravens, then a dress rehearsal, then another week to fix what went wrong in week 12. If they can't beat them here, I fear we aren't ready to win the AFC North yet. W
Week 15 vs. Raiders, We are building momentum as a home team favorite, and I am beginning to think every team that enters Cleveland will be angry when they leave. W
Week 16 @Packers, Christmas game (I'm trying to get tickets if anyone "knows a guy") A tale of two games, is Rodgers there or not. I think he is, the 2021 crap is in the past and the Pack get a Christmas gift. L
Week 17 @Steelers.. This is a game that I have probably been, pre-season, the most excited for since the return of the Browns in 1999. I think the Steelers have 11 wins at this point and the Browns have 11 wins at this point. This is what the Browns ownership, front office and coaching staff have been building towards for the past few seasons. We all thought it would come together in 2022 (at least I did), but it has been a much better gelling of a team than expected. THIS IS WHY WE ARE ALL FANS! Browns, take the first Steelers sweep since 1988, ironically they went to the AFC Championship game that year, which is exactly what I expect them to do in the 2021 season. W
Week 18 vs. Bengals, we get to celebrate the AFC North Championship at home and get ready for a week one bye, after winning the tie breaker against the Chiefs with the week one win and a 13-4 record.

There you go, we don't even need to watch the season, I've already laid it out for all of you...

 

Guess I'll cancel NFL ticket then

 

Bro... Myles Garret ain't even hit you yet.

 

For reference.

 

That was evident all season in 2020....Dude looks fragile.