LAOJoe & RTTRUTH's 12th Annual Collaborative Mock Draft

I’ll send an email in case he doesn’t have his notifications on.

 

Eh...agree to disagree.

Even at his actual size, in today's game, if he'd played 22/24 college games and lost two or less to an ankle sprain or something, I think his tape locks him in between 20-32.

The Colts took Dorsett at 23, and his tape was half as good. Not 5'7" I know, but he played like it. GM's don't want to keep their jobs.

 

Ryan Pace is a prime example, yet he still has his.

 

That’s fine.

I think we may just have a different definition of ‘first round lock’.

 

There are only like 20 "Locks" this year.

 

does that include his locks?

 

There aren't enough draft slots through the entire draft if it does.

 

Remember you can be sacked by your hair.

 

I haven't really thought about how many players I would consider guaranteed to be in the first round this draft, but I think you're probably tiptoeing somewhere near what the yearly average would be. Without researching back through my own lists, it feels like up to 2/3rds (roughly) of the consensus projected first round picks would end up being considered locks, but I tend to be a bit conservative sometimes with my guesses so it may end up closer to half.

However, all it takes is for one GM/HC combo (or wildcard owner) to fall in love with a guy and take him early, because then we will never know whether or not he would have been in consideration by the other 31 teams for a first round value. All we can prove is the negative, but even that isn't proof positive because a team picking in the top half of the draft may have a first round grade on someone like Moore but never get another chance to take him after selecting a higher rated player.

Just because a guy slides out of the first doesn't mean that no one has him with that kind of grade, and just because a guy does get taken in the first round doesn't mean the rest of the teams in the league would agree with that value.

 

Thats why you see teams in the back third of the first round trade out. Teams trading out have no 1st rounders. Teams trading up have 1 or 2 first rounders. 20 for me is a good draft for 1st round grades.

 

Agreed. But how many teams actually have 32 1st rd grades? I'd say most teams probably toe that same line in general.

 

Complicating that further, maybe a team has an early 2nd round grade on a guy, but values the idea of potentially exercising a fifth-year option, only available with a 1st round selection.

 

BTW: Happy 420 my friends!

 

I think it widely varies. I read something just a couple days ago (I'll dig up the link) where a former NFL exec was quoted as having just over 40 first round grades for this draft class. There was another article I read that said a former exec had a 4th round grade on Justin Fields (I'll dig that up to).

IMO, from year to year, talent pool to talent pool, there is going to be a lot of change in that number, and when you combine that with different approaches from different evaluators I'm sure that we would probably be surprised with how wild that number actually is.

 

I wonder how much teams care for that anymore? All it seems to do lately is piss off a struggling player when you don't offer it before his 4th season. The tender is a decent amount that just sets the bar on a player. Might just be better to pay him a new contract after 4.

 

My mind is blown on both...wth?

 

It was Gil Brandt that said about Fields receiving a 4th round grade -
https://247sports.com/Article/Justi...ers-Trey-Lance-Ohio-State-Buckeyes-163203741/

 

Gil and Charley need to retire...my opinion.

 

Charley thinks Fields slips to Steelers in mid 20's....I seriously doubt that.

 

As of right now I think Lance is the 49ers' pick but I would not be surprised if they wanted Fields for a good while before workouts. I understand Mac Jones is safe but is he the QB you trade up like that for?