MONDAY MORNING QUARTERBACK

I disagree.. The top three teams are set to go QB, as soon as the Jets called the Panthers they knew that. Otherwise the call would have been to ask if the Panthers were interested in moving up to #2. When they asked if they were interested in Darnold, to me, it signified that Lawrence, Fields and Watson will all be gone. At that point, I would take Darnold over the other two also.

I think the talking heads are putting thoughts into everyone's head that Mac Jones and Trey Lance are in the same caliber as Fields so they can get clicks to their website leading up to the draft. In my humble opinion, it isn't close. I actually like Wilson, but I don't think he is nearly as good as Fields either.

Trey Lance is the small school kid everyone wants to see succeed.
If I'm being honest, Zach Wilson may have had an easier road, schedule wise, than Trey Lance.
Mac Jones is Andy Dalton, he just played at Alabama instead of Texas Christian. He can have a starters career, but never live up to a caliber worthy of carrying an NFL franchise.

There are two QBs, that I think a struggling franchise has a chance to climb out of the gutter drafting, Lawrence and Fields. Everyone else is just fooling themselves because they need a QB so bad.

 

I gotta say, i appreciate these big trades that have been happening, this is the worst time of the NFL year and they're really helping to fill in the time.

Putting aside the fact it was a huge mistake for the Jets to take Darnold at #3, and to move UP to do it...... when viewing this current trade in isolation i think they've done very well out of it, like A grade well. This feels like a bit of an overpay from the Panthers to me. I know a 6th this year & 4th next might not look like much, but this deal amounts to 3 players, one of em a day 2 pick. 3 players is 3 players. For a guy who has looked, well, bad. And who you've probably also just committed to paying the 5th year option. That option isnt big starter money, but its not nothing and it'll feel a hell of a lot more if Darnold looks like crap.


Similarly to the 9ers trade(tho less pronounced), the timing of this move looks questionable to me. In both of these trades the negotiating position of the buyer would only get stronger as the draft drew closer. But the fear of missing out has probably made overpaying more palatable. Such is the life of a team without a settled QB position i guess, well done to the sellers for leveraging this. In the 9ers case i think you can forgive them to an extent, way more than the Panthers certainly. The 9ers had to be very worried about a top10 team moving up to #3, the Panthers themselves most probably which would be a valid concern for them.

But were the Panthers really that desperate for Darnold that they had to make this move over 3weeks before the draft? JMO, but sorry i really dont see him as being good/important enough to have to do that. Darnold is a guy you grind a team down for, not someone you just roll over and pay whatever is asked. The whole league knew the Jets were moving on from Darnold(prob for Wilson), they were actually in a very weak position re this. So just wait them out. Take it right up to draft day if you have to. At the very least that 4th rounder comes off the table, probably more. And if you do miss out on Darnold, is it really the end of the world?? Sitting at #8 with still a good chance of a QB falling to you, and with a not horrible QB already on the roster i say absolutely not.

If its not already clear let me just state that obvious my evaluation of Darnold must be very different to the Jets, those are just my thoughts.

The 9ers - Panthers dynamic is pretty interesting tho. Whether or not they were a true threat, it wouldn't surprise me at all if the fear of a Panthers move was a motivating factor in both the timing and price of the 9ers move up to #3. Maybe the Panthers, fearful of 4 QBs going in the first 4 picks would've considered a move up but their only real option now looks like #4 and that aint happening, so they felt compelled to make sure they got Darnold? Panthers affect 49ers which in turn leads to 49ers affect Panthers? Just a thought.

 

Another thing i wanted to add, i've seen it reported a couple of places that the Panthers were the only serious suitors for Darnold. Lets just assume for a second that is true, it would tell us a lot of things.

First, even more respect to the Jets to drive the price up that high for that player given there was no one else to create a bidding war. Second, the Panthers most certainly did not maximise their bargaining position.

Having it confirmed that the Jets were trying to trade Darnold also confirms that they always intended to start over and draft a QB at #2. This in turn confirms what i was saying to jeanquev about #2 never being on the table for the 49ers and they got up as high as they were ever gonna, and that the Bears also never had a shot of moving up to #2. Note: Thats not to be confused with idiot Bears GM not wanting to move up to #2 which i took to be more of jeanquev's point at the time heh.

Finally and most importantly from a Bears perspective, if the Panthers really were the only team in for Darnold then it means the Seahawks weren't in for him. As the guy half the media were desperate to link the Seahawks to that tells me that the Seahawks were never seriously interested in trading Russell Wilson, as i always suspected. Maybe if some kind of swap could've been arranged for Deshaun Watson before his troubles, a guy who you would view as being on Wilson's level and therefore not a dropoff. But really i bet the Seahawks were happy to just sit tight and let everyone else do the talking; the agent, the media, yes even the Bears, but with no intention whatsoever of letting it happen.

With that in mind id just like to take a moment to say fuck you Ryan Pace for leaking your "offer" all over Chicago media so you could cry to anyone who'd listen "See?! I tried! I tried soooo hard!!!". Get to fuck. Also fuck the NFL media with their 24hour news network model that means every stupid tweet or whiny QB statement has to lead to literally DAYS of constant jaw flapping, "analysis" and what ifs. You Fox & Friends fucks. You mouse click whores.

 

This is just an honest question, because i dont get to research college players the way many on here do and i also have seen more than one Ohio State fan talk this way in different places.

Do you feel you are being objective when it comes to Justin Fields? Because i cant help noticing that a lot of college/draft prep media seem to hold Fields in much lower esteem than you and others in that fanbase.

I know the media likes to have almost their "player of the week" type thing that they all circle jerk over while shitting on some of the other guys. Fields was a given at #2 a while back, then magically he became out of fashion. For a week it felt like Trey Lance was the guy, now people have stopped talking about him. Simms hilariously tried to tell us Wilson might go #1. This plays into the constant having something to talk about thing i just mentioned in media circles so im trying to cut thru some of that bullshit by asking you this. Cos Fields seems like a hard guy to get a read on.

 

Irish the point is that many people think the #2 pick is Wilson and the #3 pick is Jones. Some think it's Fields and some think it's Lance. Panthers don't know anything except for possibly the #1 and maybe #2 overall pick. If they really wanted Fields they aren't doing this trade.

 

That’s a fair question Everton. The honest answer is, I don’t know. I’ve seen a lot more film on Fields because I have watched every game in real time. I’ve watched what I can of the others, but frankly it’s becoming harder to find complete games like I used to watch. Now it seems all I can find are highlight reels. I used to use a sight called Draft Breakdown where you could see every snap of the majority of prospects that were scheduled to go in the top 3-4 rounds. I watched a lot more film back then and you could see trends and issues with any prospect if you watched enough. Now it’s the highlight film, so it’s harder to get those negatives to make a more fair comparison.

Like I said, I’ve seen pretty much every snap of Fields, so I THINK I have a grasp of what he can be in the NFL, but if I’m being honest that’s part of the reason I’m more confident in him than the others probably. I know his bad games, I’ve seen some bad mistakes. Those mistakes were few and far between against some of the best defenses in the NCAA. These others, except for Mac, came against far lessor defenses. Every player that plays at that level can get a highlight reel. Breaking down film to see tendencies are what is missing nowadays for me from the other players.

 

My point was, the names are a revolving door because if it stayed the same from December to now, it would become stale and no one would be visiting sites to see the “latest projections”. Truth is, most years the ones that were originally slated to go, do. Originally everyone had Fields.. personally I don’t think that has changed.

 

Yes i agree highlight reels are a terrible way to go about basing opinions on players/draft prep. Its never been something ive been able to get deep into and in years gone by i've always paid close attention to the great draft work done by big college football watchers on the Bears board like patg and dline among others.

I mean as far as how Fields pans out, i highly doubt your opinion is any less valid than one of these supposed "draft experts". So much depends on the situation he goes into imo. I hope he doesnt wind up on the Lions, that really would be going up against a historically stacked deck.

Dunno if you pull for Ohio State players much once they join non Browns teams. My best friend in the US is a huge Gamecocks(and, God forgive him, Packers) fan. To his credit, after the Bears draft Alshon Jeffrey in the 2nd round, he said he would always be pulling for Jeffrey to make it and believed he would. Alshon Jeffrey's best days are long behind him now its fair to say, but he did make it. Anyway i digress. Happens when your drinking 12year old Bushmills and have Blade Runner Blues Rain running in the background on youtube heh.

 

I had a 20 year old Bushmills once (they don’t sell it anymore; WTF! It was limited edition & numbered bottle. I still have the bottle.)

Anyway, there’s really no purpose for this message other than to encourage everyone to enjoy fine aged Irish whiskey.

Ev, next time you’re in Portugal let’s have one or eight!

 

He's a turnover prone QB, not unlike Jamies Winston....Nothing has been surprising about Darnold's career so far IMO.

Good luck to the Panthers... idk.

 

This is so true! It’s rare that a top 5 QB gets into a good situation. Which is why there are so many QB busts.

I do, as well as Irish players. My hatred for the Steelers is obvious, but when the bus played for them I rooted for him to have monster games while rooting against the Steelers win... usually his good games went hand and hand with a win.

Conversely, I hate Michigan with equal fire to Pittsburgh, but when a former player gets drafted or comes to the Browns, all is immediately forgiven for his rather dumb decision to play for such a crap team. He becomes part of the family and all I wish for is success.

 

I never tried the 20 year old, that sounds awesome. I've bought bottles of the 16 year old a couple of times. They have a steamship collection going right now, i have two different types from that, both excellent. We have a holiday home in the town of Bushmills itself. Beautiful part of the world, before covid fucked things up we would go there every summer at least once. I visit the Bushmills Distillery almost every time im there, ive spent an obscene amount of money in that place over the years heh.

As for Portugal, one of the few places in Europe i havent yet made it to. 8 whiskeys in a new country, whats not to like?!



Note: @babyfan the beer klink emoticon thing is great, but it doesnt quite get the job done when us guys are talking whiskey. Maybe you could bring up the idea of a whiskey version to Tim in the morning briefing tomorrow. Thanks much

 

"The morning briefing" ... LOL

Err ... yes I will certainly put that on the agenda, thank you for bringing it to my attention @EvertonBears LOL

 

@Tim is this possible? Whiskey drinking emoticon with dancing fancy ladies?

 

Och! And the Giant’s Causeway is so near. Love the North of Ireland!

I’m in Leiria, about an hour north of Lisboa. You’ll love Portugal; I’m sure of that.

Oh, that 20 year old Bushmills was as smooth as my wife’s bottom.

 

I missed a lot of the conversation so I just clipped these 3 parts because they will likely tie into what I'm about to post. If not, it's still relevant to the conversation, IMO.

First, I think this trade is an immediate (and potentially long) win for both teams. In the short term, the upside for both is easy to glean.

For the Jets - Even if Sam were to take the Panthers to the playoffs in his first year in Carolina, New York can simply point to the fact that they are completely rebuilding with a new staff. It's a rebuild that won't happen in just one season and moving on from Darnold was in the best interest of both parties. It removes any focus on whether or not to give Sam more cash (5th year/long term contract) in what will be another year of question marks for NY.

Also, the situation that Zach Wilson will be stepping into is infinitely better than what Sam did. Not only is the roster currently better, but with a ton of draft capital to spend over the next couple of seasons the Jets should have a stable supporting cast to groom a young passer in. The coaching staff is an obvious upgrade. Hell, I probably could have picked 5 posters from this forum that would have been an obvious upgrade over the outgoing regime.

So, New York gets a chance to clean the slate and begin again while picking up more draft capital for dealing Sam.

For the Panthers - This is a quick win, plain and simple. If Darnold were in this draft class he would likely be regarded as one of the top 3 passers not named Trevor Lawrence (most likely view of majority GMs). That means they gave up virtually nothing to acquire what would be a 23 year old, top 4 rookie passer this season. Throw in the fact that this rookie passer already has NFL experience and the upside for Carolina is pretty obvious.

The Panthers have a supporting cast that can help Darnold get up to speed quickly in Carolina. If Matt Rhule can solve his offensive line riddle to make it so that his ground game has a true identity, the play-action passing attack for the Panthers is going to be very good. They need to upgrade at TE, but the rest of the components are there for the air attack to succeed. I expect the Panthers to look at OL early and add a couple weapons later in the draft, but if Kyle Pitts were to slide to them it would be an outstanding get and an expediting move for the growth of Darnold.

Now, I agree with the direction that @IrishDawg42 is viewing the #2 selection. Personally, I do have a higher score on Lance (I guess I'm one of 'those' people ) but I think a lot of GMs are going to have Fields rated higher, based on him being a safer pick to start early in his career. We know Lawrence is going #1 overall, and it looks like Wilson will be #2, but Fields would probably be the safer pick to go with. I believe he has a higher floor than Wilson. Zach looks like the classic boom/bust prospect. I believe Trey Lance, Mac Jones and Kyle Trask are all safer picks than Zach, but the ceiling for Wilson is definitely higher than both Jones and Trask.

With that being said, GMs tend to replicate what they focus on, and that is always the thing that is most recently successful. That's why the 'Wilson can be Mahomes' fool's gold is going to push Zach way up boards regardless of the risks involved in drafting him, and there are plenty of areas of concern in his game. However, those will get pushed aside in favor of the hope that he can meet his enormous comparison.

I can understand why @LAOJoe believes the Panthers wouldn't make that move if they still wanted Fields, but there is no guarantee that Justin will be available by pick #4, and it looks like the group of picks after #3 down to Carolina may not be for sale. We know that Dolphins moved back into the #6 with an eye on one of the top 3 non-passing players. That leaves the Falcons, Bengals and Lions. Maybe the Falcons or Bengals could be talked into moving back, but now you're giving up higher draft capital than you were in the Darnold trade to move up for one of 4 passers, you're waiting to see what happens at #3 and there is a high chance that Darnold is gone.

I think this move is less about whether or not they could possibly maneuver to get one of the remaining options and more about securing their passer now and getting him support with that top pick. They may have a higher rating on Fields than what they do on Sam, but the price for Darnold and the addition of another high caliber talent in this draft compared to the cost for moving up to snag a potentially sliding Fields may be the determining factor (with the highest price being Sam already traded and their preferred option gone in the first 3 picks).

I think where @EvertonBears and I would begin to differ on this trade would be right from the beginning - the value of Darnold. Only two quarterbacks drafted in his class were put in positions where they could find some early success, based on the rosters (and in one case, coaching staff) they were selected to. Sam was drafted into the worst situation in pro football. < There really is no arguing the previous statement. It was the worst roster, saddled with the worst coaching staff, that any player could have been selected to in 2018. Then, it actually got worse... They hired Gase.

Could Sam really be as bad as what some people believe him to be? Yep, he could be a complete and total bust within the next 3 years of his career. But I don't think he will be, and I'm thinking that this conversation will be one that we all revisit in about 4 years to discuss whether or not the Jets did make the right decision in moving on...

Because that will be the real timeline on the value of this trade and the answer to the 'ifs' -

• If both Darnold and Wilson flop?
• If Wilson succeeds and Darnold fails?
• If Darnold succeeds and Wilson fails?
• If they both have success?

I think this trade has a high chance of ending up what I suggested at the top - The rare win for both teams.

 

Interesting to see what high esteem you seem to hold Darnold in, Tim. Tbh thats prob not what i would've expected. Without either of us having gone into the specifics of Darnold's game, clearly you are pretty far apart from me in your evaluation of Darnold. Pretty far apart from the Jets as well it would seem given there was never any real doubt about them moving on from Darnold despite as you yourself say, the Jets roster now being more supportive for QB success than it was in previous recent seasons. Far apart from the opinions of every other team in the league as well if reports are to be believed that the Panthers faced no serious competition for Darnold...

I didnt actually comment in the post you quoted about whether or not i thought Darnold could make it in Carolina. FWIW I tend to think Darnold has some significant flaws that will make it hard to succeed consistently and those flaws are based around the mental aspect of his game. But that wasn't at all the point i was making in that post. I was talking specifically about Darnold's trade value and the price the Panthers paid and as i see them the facts of the case are this:

- The Jets had decided the were moving off Darnold and that was pretty common knowledge. Instant weakening of negotiating position.
- The Panthers faced no competition for Darnold. Key missing ingredient for forcing up the trade price.
- Putting it kindly Darnold's numbers are...unimpressive inc more INTs than games played(just) and sub standard completion % & YPA.

Those are a negotiators dream if you are the buyer. You take the seller round the back of the woolshed and beat the ever loving crap out of them with those.

While it is a fact of discussion that Darnold was drafted into a horrible situation and def not put in a position to consistently succeed with the Jets, in negotiating terms thats little more than an extenuating circumstance because there is zero way to prove that had Darnold been drafted into an ideal spot in the pros he would've become amazing. So while the buyer, the Panthers, might privately believe this extenuating circumstance, they would be absolute fools to just accept it as a given during negotiations because they would be weakening their own bargaining position. Irishdawg and i were saying just the other day that landing spot matters, and it does of course. But the player is part of this equation as well, and again, the simple fact is this player has put on tape nothing more than flashes to go along with a litany of other errors & weaknesses that often come unforced, away from the protection of the easy "supporting cast" excuse.

Anyway, add it all up and there really is no debate here as i see it, the Panthers paid more than they should've done to get Darnold. 3 draft picks inc a high round pick was needless. I mean he may work out, i hope he does, got nothing against the guy. But no one can seriously tell me the Panthers maximised their negotiating position in this one. They didn't.

 

"Their passer" was Watson. At least as much as anything we can be sure of. Then that got torpedoed when these civil/legal issues against Watson came up. And sorry to labour the point here, but there was no market for Darnold other than the Panthers themselves. That means just as i originally said, time was on the Panthers side re Darnold. They could wait, all the way up to draft day if they wanted.

Its no coincidence imo that this move happened pretty close after the 9ers move up to 3. The Panthers had things go wrong with getting Watson, they missed out on the top 3 QBs, the Falcons are gonna trade with anyone but them for the 4. No offense but you're dressing this up too much. This move by the Panthers was one of desperation, little more.

Last one, but are you seriously suggesting that 2021 Sam Darnold would be a top4 rookie this season? 2021 Darnold, not 2018 Darnold? I totally get this is purely hypothetical, but Tim....HELL NO!

You are basing that on one thing and one thing only. The fact Darnold once went #3 overall. Not really sure how we quantify the relevance of that in this hypothetical new 2021 draft...but regardless, that is easily trumped by the fact we have 3 years of Darnold in the NFL to factor in. This genuinely isnt meant to sound condescending but you seem to be placing so much of whats gone wrong with the Jets QB position on everything but the Jets QB himself that i really think you should check out some tape.

Also, part of the big appeal with 1st round QBs is the unknown quantity element which teams invariably spin into a positive view, one obvious example of which this year would be Trey Lance. That is something every QB in this draft would have going for them except for the largely known quantity that is Sam Darnold.

If we were judging Darnold based on his tape in the NFL, he would do well to go in the 2nd round in this draft. In fact i think im being too kind.



Anyway, if you'll excuse me im going to slip off stage now and quietly sip my scotch in the corner hoping God around here doesnt smite me down for all this blasphemy : ))))

 

This also relies on the assumption that there were no other suitors for Darnold, which reporting on that trade would disagree with. At one point, it was rumored that as many as 8 teams were interested in Darnold. For the Panthers, it could simply have been as I suggested - Paying what appears to be a higher price (to some) was more than reasonable to resolve any question about how they were moving forward with this draft.

Your take also relies on the assumption that the second round pick they gave up next season will be as high as the one they have this season which is, of course, not a given.

Again, reporting would contradict this. If the Panthers wanted to make sure they had a plan in place that didn't involve Bridgewater as their starter the move may have had a clock on it.

We don't know just how much of one because the only way we could know is if someone else made the trade first, which is the reason to get it done now.

Desperation is absolutely a factor, but there is still the consideration of resolving this issue before the opportunity is removed.

Nowhere did I suggest that.

I'm stating that if you put pre-draft Sam into this class he would be in the mix as one of the top 4 rookie arms.

There are always GMs willing to try and get the most out of past first round picks that failed to live up to expectations on their original team. It's easy to consider that Scott Fitterer may have had a high first round grade on Sam prior to him entering the league and believes that he can still be that player.

I am placing a lot of what went on with Sam on the Jets, and checking out tape is kind of what I do, so I'll note your suggestion.

I'm not saying that Darnold would have been all world or playing as well as Josh Allen if he had been drafted to the Bills, but I also don't see the conversation around Sam being anywhere remotely the same if he had been put into that situation. Likewise, if we put Allen in a green jersey from day one then it could very easily be Josh that is being regarded as a wasted pick after spiraling for 3 years with that particular situation.

And considering the high ceiling that Lance and Fields possess, and the idea that Jones is the reported favorite for the 49ers, it should suggest some of what the Panthers front office might actually think about Darnold.

Being able to move up to get one of those passers may have never been an option for Carolina. Snagging up a passer at a price that you and I clearly disagree on may have been the only option, or it may have been the preferred option. That is something that we will obviously never know...

But, like any other conversation that you and I get into, we can always come back to it after enough time has passed to see whether or not either of us were right, or if the answer lies somewhere in the middle.

I'm thinking, what, maybe the end of the 2022 season?

 

Yes that would be great. Its always fun to chat about these things as they evolve over time, i may bring it up again sooner, particularly if it looks like Darnold is making sustained improvements to his game. Although i must say i don't feel i have as much skin in the game on this one. As i said, my point was mostly about the price paid. I know its a common refrain to say give it a few years to see which team won which trade, but my point was largely independent of that. Darnold could become a pro bowler in the next few years and sure the Panthers would be happy, but that still wouldn't change the lay of the land at the time the deal was made.

There are elements of Darnold's game that actually remind me of Trubisky and seeing some of the things he did with the Jets i just know he would frustrate the hell out of me. But now he's not on the Bears(and he would've had no chance with the Bears) thats no longer an issue. I actually kinda like Darnold tbh, he's a try hard type of player. I hope he can make a success of things in Carolina.