NFL - Random Opinions

Anything above 70 Proof

 

Honestly, I like the way OT is now played. Other than the occasional tie, it doesn’t leave most outcomes to the coin toss. Getting a FG because you won the toss and gaining overall advantage in the W column to me was a bad rule. I like that you either need to score the TD, or the other team gets a chance as well. To me that’s more fair than sudden death.

 

I still hate it's 10 minutes. Normally the team getting it 2nd can't get a meaningful 2nd drive. If I had a good defense I would totally consider kicking the ball off in OT for a short field (has been done too) but with only 10 minutes it usually becomes the 1st team trying to milk the clock so they can't do worse than tie it. And the Ravens proposition is on crack.

 

not 70 proof, but it's what I'm havin...

Weekend is finally here....

Cheers my friends

 

Here is my second question: Does either QB, Watson or Wilson get traded?

 

Since I only got a couple questions this time around, I'll expand on my answers a little more than I might normally do...

If you grew up in Western PA like I did, you'd understand that overreacting is what Steelers fans do.

However, the quick answer off tops would be... maybe?

I think the front office in Pittsburgh is playing a bit of a numbers game that goes far beyond dealing with Ben and his contract in 2021. They could just as easily have let him walk and save the cash while seeing what they have in Mason Rudolph, but everything I read suggests that internally, the coaching staff, management and ownership are already comfortable with Mason taking over as the starter once Ben retires. If that truly is the case, then it does make some sense to bring back Ben for a final season while reworking the offense under Matt Canada to a more complimentary style for both quarterback and players. You can let Roethlisberger play out the last of his contract on an extreme discount and be comfortable with the fact that you already have your next passer in place, and you are tailoring the offense for him to takeover as the full time starter in 2022.

This also makes it so that the first deal Rudolph would receive at the end of his rookie contract will be significantly less than if he started a full season before inking that second deal. Pittsburgh will be able to lock him up for 5 years at a rate that is simply average for a starting quarterback and by year 4 (when they begin to negotiate a new deal) it will look like an extreme bargain compared to the rest of the starting passers in the league.

Everything I have posted up till this point is what I believe the front office in Pittsburgh has in mind for transitioning away from Ben and setting themselves up for continued success. I'm basing that opinion on two things -

1. All available evidence points to this being the current course
2. I can easily see the value in approaching it this way and it surprises me a bit that I hadn't viewed some of it like this earlier

Now, there are several things that could shake this up. The most obvious would be - What if they are wrong about Rudolph? That particular draft class of quarterbacks is one of the most intriguing to me and I continue to follow every quarterback in it with a great deal of interest. One of the bigger reasons is that I had Mason as a first round passer, and at the top of the list for arms in that class. It was interesting to read that Pittsburgh had also viewed him as a first round prospect, so that obviously kept my attention. If they end up being wrong on Mason, I will be as well, so it really is fascinating to watch this exact thing unfold.

Another way to disrupt what appears to be a possible attempt to create a cushioned cap hit on the new starters deal is if Ben goes down to injury, Mason steps in and never looks back. That would swing the pendulum way back and bring the cost way up. However, that would probably be a welcome problem as it would justify the front office's belief that he is the quarterback of the future for Pittsburgh.

Having a plan in place to move on from Ben is probably the most glaring issue they consider within the walls of Heinz stadium, but there are other problems that need to be addressed in this draft before they will be on the road to reclaiming the AFC North title.

The offensive line is going to need rebuilt to a degree and it's imperative that the ground game get remedied. I like James Conner's story, I liked the prospect coming out of college more than most and the earliest parts of his career looked promising. But the injury history has taken a toll and his ability to become a high level back in the NFL no longer exists, IMO. Anthony McFarland, Benny Snell, Trey Edmunds and Jaylen Samuels are complimentary backs that should only be viewed as depth. Pittsburgh should be looking for a low cost option to come in and compete for a starting role (Malcolm Brown?) and attempt to draft a back that they can rely on for the foreseeable future, preferably a back with hands that can extend Matt Canada's offense further into the skill positions.

The line needs to find help for both depth and potential starters at C, G and T. Not a short order to try and cook up in a hot minute, but they can cut into it with this draft and buy/draft their way the rest of the way out of it in 2022 when the cap expands.

Considering the changes that are going to come on offense, both of these problems could be a bit of a blessing in disguise as they will be able to refill the toolshed with players that are tailored towards what they are looking to build. But, in the immediate, they are going to have at least two seasons of reworking the system that are likely going to lead to mixed results.

What they do have going for them is a defense that can be relied on, along with the ability to continue to improve it at a low cost this off-season through the draft and with discounted players (the market is going to be cold for a lot of talented bit players that could morph into starters on defense for several teams). Pittsburgh has a strong track record of finding defensive talent that others miss so the confidence on that side of the ball should remain high.

Obviously, there is a lot of speculation happening here on my part, but I see a longer term plan in place than what a lot of people are suggesting.

So, to bring it back to the top of the question...

Yes, I do think Steelers fans are overreacting a bit, but there is going to be a transition period for the offense that is likely going to last through 2023 before we all know whether or not Pittsburgh is in for a strong rebound or a lengthened slide.

 

The Wilson one will be interesting to monitor because I believe the Seahawks have more impetus to move him than what the Texans have to move Watson.

The Saints feel like the most obvious choice for Russell to want to go to, but how would that trade work when the Saints don't have the cap space or the draft capital to pull the trigger?

The way Russell's contract is crafted may actually lend towards the Bears having a real shot at making the kind of offer that would be acceptable, but only after June 1. So how would Seattle work around not having a passer going into the latter part of summer?

Las Vegas told the Colts they would not be taking calls for Derek Carr. So, Russ to the Raiders is out...

That leaves Dallas. Theoretically, Dallas could package the kind of offer that would likely be acceptable for the Seahawks and they are rounded enough to deal with limited draft picks for the next two classes to weather it out until they can get back into the first round.

So, is Wilson good enough to make that kind of deal? I think he is, but then you are going away from Dak and giving up all of those picks, so you better be damn sure that you have the right coaching staff in place to maximize your return on that trade. I don't think McCarthy is, so even though the trade could be worked out it feels like an immediate flub for Wilson in a situation where the talent at receiver and running back is so ridiculous that he should be able to run the Cowboys all over the East.

Ultimately, I think all of the trade talk from both Wilson and the 'Hawks is about the internal power struggle between Pete and Russ, and Seattle is not going to move off of their franchise passer without exhausting every possible avenue first.

So, bye bye Pete... The clock is ticking.

The Texans have no reason to trade Watson. The ink on his most recent deal isn't even dry yet and they owe him nothing when it comes to hiring a head coach. Just because he asked to be a part of the process doesn't mean he is going to be included. If he has a Super bowl ring like Russell does, than the 'ask' carries a helluva lot more weight. Right now, he's the shiny object the media is focused on (and in the case of Rich Eisen, trying to manipulate for his own team) so the noise is a way bigger deal than the reality.

Watson has no leverage other than holding out.

He's coming off the first year of his new 6 year deal.

The cap hit on trading him this season is prohibitive while the cap hit on trading him next year lessens significantly enough to make holding onto him one season while you rework the roster smarter financially.

The Texans can simply wait it out, force him not to play if he is dead set on never being a Texan again, and then deal him prior to the 2022 draft.

They already stated they are not taking calls on Watson, so all they have to do is go radio silent on the subject and let Watson do all the talking before ultimately being forced to play or sit.

In the end, I think the both are staying on the rosters they are for at least one more season.

 

My idea for OT is a lot different than what a lot of people will be comfortable with, and it's a bit unconventional.

No coin flip, the team that was on defense when the final whistle blew at the end of regulation gets possession to start OT.

The offense gets the ball at the 50.

Drive and score a TD or kick a field goal and the opposing team gets the ball at the 50.

If the opposing team doesn't score the same amount, they lose - game over.

If the opposing team scores the same amount, the ball goes to the original team at the 50 and play continues.

If the opposing team scores more, they win - game over.

This continues until either one team scores more or 25 total snaps have been played.

There's no clock, just 25 total snaps (penalty with a loss of down counts as a snap).

If no one scores or they match scores, mark it a tie and go home.

 

I've been living the dry life for a few weeks so I don't have anything around the house to sip on at the moment.

If I were to grab a glass, it might be Redemption Bourbon.

 

The avatar would indicate otherwise...I'm just sayin.

 

Which Steelers fans or better yet which situation? We don't all see it the same way I assure you.

 

I believe you to be the exception to the rule in most situations.

 

Not taking calls from the colts is different than the seahawks calling and saying hey we want carr and we will send you wilson now what else can you do to sweaten the pot.

 

True, but I don't believe the Seahawks are actively shopping him.

It appears that they are taking a passive stance in this and I'm reading it more as posturing than negotiating.

 

Ezekiel Elliott sure has a lot to prove this up-coming season... he's basically turned into a bust. Killing me and my L4SN fantasy team.

I wonder what happens to these studs who turn into duds... I cant see putting all the blame on the offensive line, just ask Barry Sanders.

Get it right Zeke!

 

So with the draft starting tonight here are just a few quick opinions.

Every year there is one team that makes a huge mistake that cost them big. I think the argument can be made that two teams habe already made big mistakes related to the draft.

First up the Ravens. Sure they got a big haul for the brown tarde but you broke a big rule when you sent him to KC. You made a team you cant beat stronger. A team you will likely have to get past in order to reach the super bowl. Never mind the fact he makes their line better he also can help give insights to your offense and to your defense (not that KC has needed the help).

Mistake team two the Jets. I know im in the minority here but I think you keep Bradford trade the pick away and surround him with talent and weapons that make even an average qb succesful.

Up to 5 qbs may go in the first round history tells us that at least one is going to be a bust. So which one will it be? My money is on Zach Wilson. Yeah i know a few crazy experts think he should move ahead of trevor but their either on crack or just desprate to try and make a name for themselves (not going to happen). Cant put my finher on it but I feel like wilson will end up being ryan leaf to trevors manning.

We also know 1 qb will fall and end up being bettter than those taken ahead of him. With my bust being Wilson pretty much means anybody taken after him but the big part is the slide. I think fields for whatever crazy reason is the one who slides out of the top 10 and will make some team extremely happy for the next decade+.

 

Great take! They aren’t going to make up for the talent they lost with the picks they received unless they get lucky. Proven vs unknown rarely works.

I think this is true for both of these reasons.. you can and did make the argument for trading down and helping a current QB be a better version of themselves by surrounding him with better talent. The second part is another reason they have made a mistake imho, it also has to do with your last comment ironically. They are choosing the wrong player if they take Wilson. Fields is 1b in this draft to Lawrence 1a. I have Wilson ranked behind quite a few non QB prospects, even though I understand he will get drafted ahead of those players due to QB importance. Choosing wrong will keep them at the bottom for another minimum 3 seasons, until they have yet another opportunity to reset.

The only reason I disagree here is that QB is too important and I don’t see THAT many GMs missing the scouting on Fields. I don’t believe they will all be scared by the epilepsy news and I would be beyond shocked if he drops out of the top ten. I will actually be mildly surprised if the 49ers don’t take him at #3.

 

I see that no one here is jumping on that Aaron Rodgers to the Niners crap. That's just too bizarre.

 

It is.

Rodgers wants out. That everyone believes. Not too far fetched to imagine Shanahan wanting him if he believes they are still SB ready. Seems likely.

The issue would be price and giving another team in your conference strength, then having to get through them.

Don't think it happens. In today's league and at his age though, I could buy a scenario where Rodgers leaves the Pack. Hell, I think most of us called that coming within 18 months the second they selected Love in the first.

 

I mentioned that Lynch mentioned they tried before they picked.