The Browns are much improved and will be a formidable opponent this week. Actually I believe that they might be a better offense with Hunt getting the bulk of the carries. Hunt is a leathal weapon in the passing game and him and Chubb are top five backs in the league. Chubb is out but that doesn’t make stopping the run any easier. They have a pair of WRs that on paper are better than our top two (whoever you feel are our top two) very debatable, I personally would take Claypool and JuJu over the Browns WR pair. Our defense has been playing way lower than expected and could cause us problems with the game. The pass rush has to get Baker on the ground. Our offense has to keep Garrett away from Ben. We can torch their secondary if Ben stays upright. The hard part about this game is that the winner will be in first place. When was the last time you could say that about the Browns and it wasn’t week one? This is a game that we have to win if we are really a serious SB contender.
Both O-lines are a little dinged up. Both D-lines have a good pass rush. That adds up to an interesting day for the QB's. Steelers have a huge advantage at LB and Safety. Browns have (IMHO) a better group of TE's. WR is a push (statistically). I think the Browns are better at the slot WR. Wouldn't surprise me if this game is somewhat decided by the intermediate passing game in the middle of the field. Steelers have an experience advantage at CB, Browns have a raw talent advantage. Browns have an experience advantage at WR. WR talent is probably a push. The running game (less Chubb) is a push. As I already mentioned, both O-lines are dinged up but the Steelers have a huge advantage in the defensive front seven. Still, I don't see a FedEx Ground player of the week coming out of this game. I think the result will come down to who ever wins the time of possession -and- commits the fewest mistakes (turnovers/penalties). I think we're about to find out how good of a coach Stefanski is. Both teams will probably find some success going down field but, - IF - either Mayfield or Roethlisberger is allowed to dink and dunk down the field, they'll go home a winner.
I think this will be a good one. One area that I feel the Steelers have the biggest advantage is at the QB position. I know that sounds obvious but, the reason I bring it up is that, if this is close down the stretch than Ben is of the "been here done that" class. Mayfield can be flighty at times and I think the Steelers can rattle him. Still, while the Steeler''s run D is formidable, the Browns run O is the same. That could help keep Mayfield out of obvious pass downs. We'll see but I think it's going to be a good one.
No doubt Ben has a huge experience advantage. However, in Ben's 222 game career - he's been credited with 43 fourth quarter/game winning drives (~19%). In Mayfield's 35 games (34 starts) - he's been credited with six (6) 4th quarter/game winning drives (~18%). Not a significant difference in percentage. But, keep in mind, Ben has been blessed with some pretty good teams over his career and, as such, hasn't had to come from behind that often.
“Mayfield...gets worse as the game goes on. His passer rating in the first half of games this season is 110.4. In the second half, it falls to 45.5, including a putrid 27.8 in the fourth quarter. If a quarterback simply took the snap and spiked the ball, his passer rating would be 39.6. While not as pronounced as this season, the fourth quarter has been an issue for Mayfield throughout his career. He has a career passer rating of 74.8 in the final 15 minutes of games, having thrown 14 touchdown passes and 15 interceptions in the final quarter in 34 career starts.” - Dale Lolley @Lyman I think the point @dirk275 is making is that Mayfield isn’t that experienced in winning big games in big moments. The quoted statistics above (from a respected Steelers beat writer) certainly bare that out. The kid just plain struggles in the fourth quarter and has throughout his career. I expect this to be a heck of a game. The Browns, in my opinion, are for real. If it comes down to a QB battle in the 4th quarter, though, I think it favours the Steelers. The Browns need to jump out to a lead and eat the clock with that running game. That’s their most likely path to victory imo. However, Mayfield leading a late game winning drive in Pittsburgh might be exactly what the Browns need to truly believe they belong. Should be fun on Sunday!
Mano, you and I BOTH know that statistics can be hammered to support any discussion. You, in fact, were very adept at that in the "Debate Threads" back in the CBS days. This can be especially effective when one deflects from the base topic - come from behind wins - to a different (albeit somewhat related) data set - passer rating. And, OBTW, "Respected Steelers beat writer" is an oxymoron. Can't wait.
Yeah, that last part is true without a doubt. You know, if Mayfield would've had one more comeback, say, vs the Ravens in the last week of the 2018 season, that would've been great.
