Joe Burrow LSU 934 Justin Herbert Oregon 914 Tua Tagovailoa Alabama 904 Jordan Love Utah State 883 Anthony Gordon Washington State 850 Jacob Eason Washington 846 Tyler Huntley Utah 817 Jake Fromm Georgia 812 Jalen Hurts Oklahoma 800 Steven Montez Colorado 782 James Morgan FIU 755 Khalil Tate Auburn 713 Jake Luton Oregon State 690 Nate Stanley Iowa 664 Bryce Perkins Virginai 649 Shea Patterson Michigan 547 Kevin Davidson Princeton 519 Mason Fine North Texas 465
Ok, after appeasing a follower with a couple of rankings that went away from my standard practice I'm back to doing things my way... I already had some of the baseline info/scores done for this group of passers so it feels a lot better to be handling things within my normal routine, lol. If I had to take a long guess at how many of these arms actually end up with a draftable grade, I'm thinking 14 is going to be close to the total. A couple notes - Joe Burrow is on his way to one of the highest scores I've had here. He posted an opening total that would compare to the top 4 names on my overall list (2012 to present) so unless something really sticks out to bring him down he's pretty much a lock to have a top 5 all time total. Herbert and Tua have a pretty close opening total and these early scores become a little less meaningful in ranking when the points are similar. In other words, these guys could switch places easily as of right now. However, both are a little lower than what I would have thought going into this so it will be interesting to see if one ends up pulling away. If Love, Eason and Fromm were all within the same range I don't think it would surprise many. But having Love, Eason, Neal and Luton with a step before it gets to Hurts and Fromm is something interesting in the early going. The 11 to 14 block are all likely draftable off of differing traits, but there's some unique talent and potential ability to have a longer NFL career than what may be believed currently. The rest of the group looks like some extremely longer shots (Montez may fit into the block of players likely drafted on traits) but, again, it's still only in the first phase of scoring so this may change.
So, my comp for Tua is going to be Bruce Gradkowski. Similar build, similar throwing style, both have/had the ability to break the pocket for yardage and they both had issues coming out with anticipation. There's an obvious ceiling difference here as Tua has a better arm in every phase, but they're probably closer to each other than what a lot of people would be comfortable with admitting. Really similar throwing motion, with the ball coming out of Tua's hands quicker, but this is one of my funner comps on the year.
Couple quick notes - The only passer that has really separated himself from another tier is Burrow. Herbert, Tua and Love actually got closer in score for the second round. That's really more of a positive for Love than it is a negative for Tua or Herbert. Gordon jumped up and now sits in an odd block that includes Hurts and Huntley. Morgan, Eason, Tate and Luton make up the next tier. Eason is likely to rise in the last round and Tate is the likely faller. Fromm kind of sits alone in a weird spot. He just keeps leveling flat on too many scores so I can't see him making any real jump up in the last round. Fine and Montez represent the last block that is guaranteed a draftable score. Perkins, David, Stanley and Patterson are right on the edge and I'd say that all 4 likely catch enough points in the last round to get one. Everything after that feel like it is going to be too much of a difference to get a bump up in the final round.
Appreciate the update. Safe to say I’m the furthest apart from you on Eason. I’m quite a bit higher on him. I personally expect him to be #5 off the board. He has an easy projection to be that classic pocket NFL passer. Having said that, I’ve heard a rumour that he’s a bit of a “Me” guy and has rubbed teammates the wrong way occasionally. I can’t investigate that on tape. But if true, it has the potential to render my fifth guy gone guess awful and drop him down a ways in the draft. Have you come across anything to support or dispute that claim?
I typically try to avoid reading character stuff on guys because I don't want it to mix in with what I'm trying to score from the video, but it's impossible not to get it in your view. Eason is a guy that does have a lot of people questioning his demeanor.. The polar opposite is James Morgan. Everything I've bumped into that has a tidbit about his character has been extremely positive. Same with each of their interviews. Morgan is rumored to have aced them and Eason is rumored to have rubbed a lot of interviewers the wrong way. What's interesting is the similarity in their profiles. They are basically the same QB from a scoring stand point (currently). Their calling cards are prototype size paired with cannon arms. They both struggle dealing with pressure, have limited athletic ability and their throwing platform can get wonky causing errant passes. It's like someone standing on wet ice trying to level a heavy rifle. The shot is still going to come in smoking hot but to where? Neither has great touch but Morgan is slightly better anticipating open windows, and he tends to display a bit better ball placement in traffic. Those are the main reasons he has an edge on Eason right now. Both are going to struggle to become very good NFL quarterbacks, IMO. Ceilings of Jeff George and floors of Brock Osweiler.
Tim your tiering is similar enough to mine. Although my list goes one more on draftable and it just so happens to be the next name on the list in McDonald. Now the name after that, Lewerke, is a weird one. He is just garbage but someone may love what he has to "offer". I'll be a bit shocked if anyone you have ranked after him gets drafted.
I ended up with 18 names with a draftable score - Joe Burrow LSU 934 Justin Herbert Oregon 914 Tua Tagovailoa Alabama 904 Jordan Love Utah State 883 Anthony Gordon Washington State 850 Jacob Eason Washington 846 Tyler Huntley Utah 817 Jake Fromm Georgia 812 Jalen Hurts Oklahoma 800 Steven Montez Colorado 782 James Morgan FIU 755 Khalil Tate Auburn 713 Jake Luton Oregon State 690 Nate Stanley Nate Stanley, Iowa 664 Bryce Perkins Virginai 649 Shea Patterson Michigan 547 Kevin Davidson Princeton 519 Mason Fine North Texas 465
I feel like Tyler Huntley and Anthony Gordon are not getting enough coverage. Both players fit different ways of staying in the league beyond the career average.
Especially, Gordon in my eyes... He put up lofty numbers. Could be the diamond in the rough that gets a bit over-looked.
Not to mention he didn't get a bunch of playing time prior to his Red Shirt Senior year, but when he was handed the reins he tore it up.
Quick release, good anticipation and has solid ball placement. Needs to go through his progressions a little quicker in order to mitigate some low velocity throws (think Pennington or Bridgewater). It would be interesting to see if he could add 8 to 15 pounds of good body weight. It would likely help him with both torque and the ability to stand more solid in the pocket.
Intriguing list. After our previous conversations I find it interesting that you have Eason ahead of Hurts. Even I flip-flopped on that one after going through their tape a second time. One guy I’m a bit higher on than you and I think most is Shea Patterson. I think he has the potential to be a very quality back up in the NFL. If he could cut down one mental error per game I think he could be a pretty decent back up.
Without going back and taking a closer look at the individual numbers, my guess would be that Hurts had too little in the way of nuanced passing traits and Eason's natural arm ability pushed him up the board. That combined with an athletic profile that didn't do enough to buoy Jalen's overall score. The Hurts at the back end of the first, early portion of the second conversation really grinds my gears, lol. The two that stood out to me as more of a surprise were Gordon and Tate. I think Khalil is getting a bit of a bad media break with all of the focus being on the negative. Tate can wrist flick rip it from bad body angles and make defenses pay for lazy coverage in some smaller windows. If I'm running the Ravens, I draft Tate in the later rounds and let him beat out Griffin/McSorley for the primary back-up spot. With Gordon, he needs to add good weight to actually become a starting signal caller in the NFL, IMO. Just a little more zip on some of his passes with a quicker move through his progressions would give him a chance to get with a team that needs a passer. He will need opportunity to meet with improved overall body strength to make it happen, but I do believe the possibility is there.
