The 2020 Offseason | Team Needs

What Schobert move ???

 

The laissez faire approach him in free agency. He's arguably the top free agent linebacker available, a top five player at his position, and his reported contract demands ($10 million a year) are in line with the twelfth-best paid guy at the position.

We've actually seen this dance play out before when analytics took the helm and it has been costly since. In one of Sashi Browns' largest mis-calculations, they had a number they put on Mitch Schwartz but still let him test free agency. When he came back with the contract offers he was getting, the Browns had already decided to move on and in fact, he took less overall money from Kansas City.

At the time, we all were more than ready to show him the door but it turns out that the grass was not greener on our pasture. I would hate to see the same thing happen with a guy like Schobert who's easily one of the best ILBs in the game. He can go to Carolina, step into Luke Kuechly's shoes and be a Pro Bowler for the next decade while we're constantly cycling through free agents at the position trying to fill the void.

 

^^^^^
Because of the relentless turnover in Cleveland, letting our own guys walk has become a traditional unlike any other, unfortunately.

 

Meanwhile... in election news:

 

Schobert is nowhere near one of the best ILBs in the game but at the same time he is easily on of the best defenders on a Browns team that is sorely lacking in defenders.

This is a lose/lose for Cleveland. Free agency can rectify this but analytics suggest they won't be aggressive. Only time will tell but the Browns have clearly transitioned from a team on the move to a team faced with the same challenges as everyone else.

Welcome to the NFL.

 

Among off-ball linebackers (not just inside)...

Total tackles: 133 (7th)
Solo tackles: 89 (4th)
Tackles for loss: 7 (t-3rd)
QB Hits: 4 (t-4th)
Passes Defensed: 9 (t-2nd)
Interceptions: 4 (1st)

Ranking wise.. Bobby Wagner is #1. Luke Kuechly is (was) #2. Joe Schobert is (was) #3. Given Kuechly's retirement, he's moved up to #2.

Yes... he can improve areas of his game. He needs to limit missed tackles. On the flip side, he's the best coverage ILB in a league that is moving further and further into a pass-dominant league.

So say he's "nowhere near" is simply wrong.

 

Three years ago, the Analytics Department of the Cleveland Browns orchestrated one of the more unique trades in NFL history, sending a compensatory fourth round pick to Houston for a QB they weren't going to use, a $18.0 million cap hit, and a second and sixth round pick in return. With Analytics back in the building... why not double-down?

Not cheap... Jeffery has two years left on his four year, $52 million deal with $24 million in cash due to him, but the trick is $39 million in cap hit with a whopping $41 million in dead cap (due to re-structure). Would push the Browns into a rarefied spot with a cap hit of $47.2 million in cap space for their wide receivers (21.3% of the total cap).

BUT... unlike Osweiler, Jeffery can actually play and help the team (not to mention, would be a deadly third-option). His hefty contract dead cap is done after 2021, precisely when they have to start re-signing Myles Garrett, David Njoku, and anyone else from the 2017 class they plan on keeping.

It gets Andre Dillard in town, a sixth lineman for the Eagles who can play either tackle spot, and who was a first round pick just a season ago (2019). Youthful, athletic, and talented... this would obviously correct one of the two glaring tackle issues facing the team currently. With Philly reportedly open to bringing Peters back, the move makes sense, although it seems short-sighted.

For that kind of deal, I would even be willing to send picks to Philadelphia. Personally, IIRTB, I would send both thirds to Philly for the hefty contract of Alshon Jeffery and the potential of former-first round pick Dillard.

 

He was 78th among LBs in opponent passer rating (101.2). And while I"m admittedly not the biggest PFF fan he was their 97th ranked linebacker (38th in coverage).

 

The last paragraph says it all...

Free Agency - "opportunistic" - they aren't making a free agent splash
Contracts - being aggressive with pre-market extensions for our home-grown core. And yet they didn't even make an offer to Schobert (probably because they don't think he's as good as their fan base does).

 

Jeffery would only cost the Browns:

2020 9.9M
2021 13M (not guaranteed)

All the dead money remains in Philly. Your 3rd /3rd is a no-brainer if the Eagles would take it.

 

Friendly heads-up, I will frequently quote Pro Football Focus (PFF.com). Seems you're quoting Pittsburghese Football Fallacies (PFF.net).

 

A bit on the nose, don't you think?

 

Code:

                                                                                                                               
                        Game                                                        Pass                    Pass            Tack
Year   Age  Tm Pos No.  G GS Int Tgt Cmp  Cmp% Yds Yds/Cmp Yds/Tgt TD  Rat DADOT Air YAC Bltz Hrry QBKD  Sk Prss Comb MTkl MTkl%
2019    26 CLE  LB  53 16 16   4  55  38 69.1% 357     9.4     6.5  3 74.6   7.1 208 149   74    1    2 2.0    5  133   16 10.7%

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/12/2020.

I would like to point out... the 58.6 was as of December 15, looks like he finished at 74.6. Hard to believe games against Baltimore and Cincinnati set him back that far (only four touchdowns thrown in those two)... but still a far cry from 101.2.

Couple other notables...

Lavonte David - 73.0 rating allowed
Luke Kuechly - 75.3 rating allowed
C.J. Mosley (2018) - 88.8 rating allowed **highest paid ILB**
Devin Bush - 97.4 rating allowed
Bobby Wagner - 108.2 rating allowed
Vince Williams - 121.4 rating allowed

Not sure who those 77 guys who rated higher.

 

I have a subscription (even though I'm not a fan). I didn't make it up. I'll post.

 

I screenshot 1st page to see headers. And then Schobert's page. I can screenshot all the way down if you like but didn't want to waste time or Tim's server space.

 

Total LB Grades

 

All that being said. I think he's much better than 97th - which is why I really don't like PFF grading. But for some reason damn near every team has a relationship with them so they have to have some value. I think the Browns will miss him but if he truly thinks he's worth 10-12M per season I think they are better off going younger. And for the record any LB conversation should start with Darius Leonard.

 

His numbers there don't seem at all in line with Pro Football Reference -- even the targets (64 PFF, 55 PFR) are off. Beyond that, we're not limiting this in any way for snaps, huh? MFs on there with 2 targets to Joe's 518 with 1 pass target and 1 pass allowed against Joe's 64 and somehow they're "better in pass coverage"?

Schobert took 1,059 snaps last season for Cleveland... they've got him in coverage for almost half (518) of those.

Maybe they are going to run a 5-1-5 alignment in 2020 since they clearly need more "in-the-box" safeties than they do classic middle linebackers.