The 2020 Offseason | Team Needs

Agreed. He's never getting to #10 anyway.

 

Post-Combine IIRTB (If I Ran the Browns)

Free Agency (Ours)
The Browns enter free agency with an estimated $58.3 million in cap space. That's after cuts of T.J. Carrie, Eric Kush, Adarius Taylor, and Demetrius Harris. Add Olivier Vernon as my first cut - due $15.5 million (with no dead money). Second cut is Chris Hubbard, due $7.3 million with $2.4 dead for net of almost $5.0 million.

We'd hit the market with an estimated $78.8 million in cap, fifth-best in the NFL.

Makes the next part more heart-breaking, as the Browns have decided not to engage in contract extension discussions with Joe Schobert, arguably our second-best defense-man and playing a position where his contract demands ($10 million per year) are right in line with the top half of players at the position. Especially brutal, considering we also just lost Isaiah Simmons due to a freakish Combine (to pair with phenomenal tape). Also being allowed to test free agency is Rashard Higgins. That may be to see who's bidding, but I'm counting both lost this cycle.

Franchise Tag: Damarious Randall (projected $12.7 million)
RFA Tender: Kareem Hunt: second-round tender (projected $3.3 million)

Releases/non-retentions: Joe Schobert, Rashard Higgins, Olivier Vernon (cut), Chris Hubbard (cut), Drew Stanton, Eric Murray, Juston Burris, Justin McCray, Ricky Seals-Jones, Bryan Cox. Jr., Kha-Darel Hodge, Dontrell Hilliard, Pharaoh Brown (all contracts expired)

Letting go of the bottom part of the roster that just so happened to all be "Dorsey Dudes". None of those guys are worth a look and can be replaced easily in post-Draft free agency.

Free Agency (Others)
Priority Free Agents: Yannick Ngakoue, EDGE and Brian Bulaga, RT.

Arguably, the defensive line in 2020 was our worst overall unit, despite an absolutely stud in Garrett. Ngakoue can change that. Jacksonville isn't expected to retain him, so he'll hit free agency off his rookie deal after posting 37.5 sacks, 85 QB hits, and 42 TFLs in four seasons. Ngakoue would get a five year, $90 million deal, on par with the deals Trey Flowers and Dee Ford recently signed.

Secondly, without a starting-caliber tackle on the roster, thanks to Chris Hubbard's ineptitude and Greg Robinson's ignorance, the Browns will need to invest heavily in the position and Bulaga is one of the top tackles on the market. The left tackle spot is pretty weak in free agency. Andrew Whitworth (LAR) is 38 and a bit long in the tooth. Anthony Castonzo (IND) would be nice, but the Colts have the cap to keep him and would be foolish not to. Bulaga, on the other hand, could cost $10-12 million a season and Green Bay doesn't have that room. He'd lock down the right side and make a noticable improvement to the line by his addition alone.

Likely somewhere in the neighborhood of $12-14 million a season... four year, $50 million deal.

Other Pick-Ups: Dakota Dozier, LT. A much less-heralded name who has familiarity with Stefanski's system.

And that's about it... I would use free agency to grab two premium players, one on each side of the line. If Bulaga dosen't work out, Gilbert, Williams, Dotson (all RT), or Castonzo or Beachum (LT) could be the look. At edge, if losing Ngakoue, Clowney, Griffen, Asnah, or Quinn would be nice gets.

Draft
Ahh... the draft. LFG!

 

BROWNS DRAFTED
pick player position
10 Mekhi Becton OT
41 Kenneth Murray LB
74 Isaiah Wilson OT
90 Ashtyn Davis S
105 Antonio Gandy-Golden WR
168 J.R. Reed S
222 Josiah Scott CB


My mock was kinda similar.....

 

I think, regardless of the pick at #10, they need to address inside linebacker in the second round... even if it means moving up for Murray. It's an incredibly ignorant and short-sighted approach to the draft to allow a Top 5 (at least Top 15) player at his position walk in free agency only to need to replace that.

It's not like we have an abundance of linebackers who can play, either. Mack Wilson looks like a guy worth developing -- he plays the weak side. Chris Kirksey is coming back from injury, but has major injury concerns, his play was slipping big time over the past few seasons when he was healthy, and oh by the way... he plays the weak side. Sione Takitaki is raw and right now, at best a special teams player. We needed a strong side linebacker to be added anyway and we cut Adarius Taylor -- not that I mourn his departure but now that's another need to fill there.

Here's a look at your free agency inside linebackers:



Find a guy who's on par with Schobert who'll come cheaper. I'll wait.

Free agency at outside 'backer is a little murkier since a lot of EDGE guys are put in this bucket:

 

He has a certain nastiness about his style of play. The kind of guy you want on your side but you despise if he's playing against you. Very physical....I'm really hoping Takitaki can take that next step and be that intimidating force in the middle of our defense in 2020.

Nothing wrong with Kenneth Murray in round two, regardless...Dude is a football player. Great instincts. It's hard to imagine him not transitioning very well to the NFL.

 

BROWNS DRAFTED
pick player position
10 Tristan Wirfs OT
41 Jalen Reagor WR
74 Anfernee Jennings LB
90 Calvin Throckmorton OT
105 Davon Hamilton DL
168 Jabari Zuniga EDGE
222 Tanner Muse S

Mock season is in full throttle. Could've had Becton and Murray on this one as well, but I switched up my top two just to see how it would turn out...

I like the first one because of Becton. That guy just makes me think of Jonathan Ogden. He is a massive human being.

Wirfs looks great too, but I think I'm leaning toward Becton as my favorite OT prospect in this draft.

 

https://www.cleveland.com/browns/20...l-combine-thoughts-concerning-the-browns.html

I was impressed with this group as well. If we want a solid OT prospect, we are sitting pretty.

 

Ezra Cleveland, OT - Boise State....I haven't heard him mentioned much, but he was super impressive at the Combine IMO....A name to keep in mind, and one the Browns should have no problem remembering. His performance in Indy might have put him in the first round, but if the Browns traded down or went a different direction at #10, I could certainly see him being a potential target.

 

Two things that are tough to reconcile, for me: the implicit notion that analytics doesn't support drafting an offensive lineman that early, and whether or not any QB -- besides Joe Burrow -- are worth Top 25 selections.

By my count, four of the teams picking in the top 10 selections should be looking to go QB. That demand doesn't quite reconcile with supply where (again, for me personally) you've got Joe Burrow. A tremendous drop-off. Then some combination of Jacob Eason and Jordan Love, and Tua Tagovailoa... with only Burrow being the guy I'd pick to define my franchise.

So what if those teams fill their holes elsewhere? Those teams, for the record, are Cincinnati, Miami, Los Angeles, and Jacksonville. (You could also probably argue Detroit and Carolina would be tangentially interested.) So what if Miami does the smart thing and signs Teddy Bridgewater? Or if Cincinnati gets an offer they can't refuse and moves down with Las Vegas, Indianapolis, or Tampa Bay? The Chargers could sign Tom Brady, but that's a stop-gap solution at best, and Jacksonville may be forced to play Foles since they're paying him.

Let's throw away trades for now, as well as Bridgewater landing in Miami, as those are too perfect.

1.1 Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow, QB
1.2 Washington Redskins: Chase Young, EDGE
1.3 Detroit Lions: Jeff Okudah, CB
1.4 New York Giants: Isaiah Simmons, S/LB
1.5 Miami Dolphins: Jordan Love, QB
1.6 Los Angeles Chargers: Tua Tagovailoa, QB
1.7 Carolina Panthers: Mekhai Becton, OT
1.8 Arizona Cardinals: CeeDee Lamb, WR
1.9 Jacksonville Jaguars: Derrick Brown, DT

As a non-QB needy franchise picking in the Top 10, conventional wisdom is to go with best player available. In some years, that may be DE2 on teams' boards... it would have to be either a very special class (or a very weak one) to go with OT2. Add on top of that the very real fact that analytics doesn't want to take a tackle early and analytics is probably "running the show" again... the move is clear as day: trade down.

Browns could void themselves of #10 overall to a team that needs to jump that next tier (Raiders, Colts, Buccaneers) but the requirement would be having to fall in love with a Justin Herbert (or swap Herbert for Love in my mock and fall in love with... Love).

 

Honest question that just can't seem to ask any other way . . .

In your opinion (which I value) - does analytics take into account the fact that, at the moment, we have zero Left Tackles on the roster?

 

I think it has to, right? They can't just grab some journeyman in free agency at the position and hope for the best.

As I mentioned, if I'm running the Browns, my first move is to make Brian Bulaga a Top 3 paid right tackle and then use #10 on Tristian Wirfs... assuming Isaiah Simmons is off the board (seems very likely now).

I think analytics tends to evaluate and make decisions based on perceived value.

I think traditional football guys tend to evaluate and make decisions based on player potential.

Both camps seem to think themselves the smartest folks in the room. In our situation now, the smartest move is going to be plugging the massive gap in the roster (LT). My musings above are more hoping that all parties -- football and analytics -- are willing to make the right choices.

 

There is another option . . . Because the CBA is scheduled to expire at the end of this season, teams are allowed to use both a Franchise Tag and a Transition Tag.

We could exercise both tags on Randall -and- Schobert. Either way you flip flop them , the total is in the altitude of $27M for both.

 

Isn't there also some concern that since the rules haven't been agreed upon (yet), that could change?

Ultimately... I don't see more than one player (Randall) worth tagging. And that's only because the free agent safety class is so weak. Give him a year -- with some money fully-guaranteed -- to warm up to Joe Woods. If he can play like 2018 Randall, extend him. If not, we're drafting safety with our first pick next season.

 

One thing to keep in mind: it depends on who you ask (where you look) but the tackle class is routinely graded with anywhere from four-to-six guys being "first round talents", most of them within the Top 25 picks. There's also little to no consensus on who the top guys are. About five weeks ago, Jedrick Wills (Alabama) and Andrew Thomas (Georgia) were the top of the class -- now, it's Mekhi Becton (Louisville) and Tristian Wirfs (Iowa). I think the biggest take-away in all this is: take the one that's the best fit for the team.

With a qualified offensive line coach, finally (Bill Callahan), they do have the ability to get a guy who perhaps is more raw but offers a higher ceiling (Josh Jones, Houston; or Tristian Wirfs for example). With Stefanski and a new offensive system coming to town, a guy from a zone blocking scheme makes more sense (which is pretty much everyone but Jones -- Iowa and Alabama are probably the most prominent zone run schemes of the group.

So ultimately, I think the Browns will trade down from #10 and select their guy that best fits their system in the mid-teens. This could be Wirfs... it could just as easily be Andrew Thomas (who's slid a bit as of late) or Josh Jones (who's stock seems pointed up). I believe a trade-back-and-tackle choice, despite being the least-sexy approach to a draft, is the right way to go.

• Gets the guy the Browns want and best fits their offense, while also picking up additional picks to maneuver around the board
  
  
• By the team's own admission, they want to be "aggressive"... trade backs don't tend to be seen that way, but when they're done with the intent to add draft capital to move back up, they do. I expect that a trade down from #10 would also inform a trade up from #41... perhaps all the way to the end of Round 1, even.
  
  
• It let's them be nimble enough to draft in a hybrid-manner: that is, selecting best available while also addressing positions of need

Free agency will obviously change the outcome a bit, but assuming left tackle is left unaddressed with an impact signing (lack of options, really), I would expect the R1 pick -- regardless of actual number -- to address that spot. Signing a position-holder like Dakota Dozier (Minnesota) makes sense to allow a rookie time to mature and give Callahan a chance to coach some of the bad habits out before inserting them into the starting lineup.

Likewise, unless Schobert gets no love in free agency and comes back with his tail between his legs for less money, the Browns need to add both a MIKE and SAM linebacker in their front seven. They can hope that Chris Kirksey can play and stay healthy (big if)... but at best he can play inside (truly a weak-side guy). Mack Wilson shouldn't have a problem holding down the weak-side. That makes a guy like Kenneth Murray (Oklahoma) such a prize because he has the potential to play MIKE or SAM in a 43 front, offers the requisite range for today's linebacker, but has a solid track record as a player:



He looks like a potential DeMeco Ryans, who won defensive rookie of the year and had a nice NFL career.

Safety is the other wildcard here. A slide by either Grant Delpit or Xavier McKinney could change plans, too.

 

Add another linebacker to the to-do list...

At this point, the 2020 draft is just tackles, linebackers, and safeties.

 

beat me to it...

Only played in 9 games the last two years...He'll likely wind up in New England and be an All Pro for the next 5 years. smh...

I hate to see guys like him leave. Dude gave Cleveland his all. Class act.

 

The Kirksey move doesn't surprise me... it was the Schobert move that did.

Now imagine this group also doesn't franchise Randall and they cut Vernon, as they've been rumored to be considering?

Defense could have a *LOT* of new faces come September...

 

Hard not to see Hubbard ($7.3 cap, $2.4 dead) and Vernon ($15.5 cap, $0 dead) close behind...

 

I have a feeling Olivier Vernon gets the axe next.

 

...beat me again! wth?