Looking Forward to the 2019 AFC North

Well, I will say I agree he needs to get WRs in the mix more. I won't agree with the implication that it has to be big targets because he and Marquise Brown had a good thing going before Brown got hurt, and of course Brown is one of the smallest guys we've ever had at WR. But I do agree he needs to get other WRs more involved than they have been.

 

lmaooooo -- Jackson has padded his stats against *checks notes*, the worst, second-worst, third-worst, and fifth-worst defenses (Miami, Cincinnati, Arizona, and Kansas City).

In the only challenges defensively thus far (Pittsburgh - 15th, Seattle - 16th... so still average), he's:

28 of 48 (58.3%) for 304 yards (152.0 YPG), 1 TD (2.1 rate), 3 INT (6.3 rate), 6.3 YPA, 5.8 AYPA, 10.9 YPC, for a 57.9 QB rating (and only 81 yards on 28 scrambles - 2.8 YPA for no touchdowns)

 

Wait, so when he's a few numbers below the average, you're calling it below average. When he's a few numbers above the average, you're just calling it average? Seems rather inconsistent doesn't it?

What is the obsession some posters have with taking out games for opposing team's fans? I don't comment often, but I read the Browns (and Steelers) boards often and I don't think I've ever seen you say "look at how great Baker is, now look when we take out one or more of his better games".

Okay, so if you rate Lamar as flat out not good this year as a passer, I'm curious as how you rate Baker in 2019?

 

The toilet bowl has played better

 

Hmm. So you're looking at total defensive stats while discussing a QBs passing stats? Seems legit

Now, if you were accurately looking at pass defense, you'd have them rated as 22nd (Miami), 16th (Cincinatti), 25th (Arizona), 9th (Kansas City), while also including 6th (Cleveland), 18th (Pittsburgh), and 19th (Seattle).

That's an average ranking of 16th in the league. Of course if you want to intentionally continue to rate a QBs pass production by total defense as opposed to pass defense, feel free. For shits and giggles, let's see the competition Baker has had. He's had much better weapons around him, but much worse play than Lamar, so surely it's all top 10 pass defenses for him.

10th (Titans), 11th (rams) 19th (Rams), 24th (Jets), 26th (Ravens), #1 (49ers).

That's an average ranking of 15th in the league. So the overall PASS DEFENSES our two QBs have faced have been similar. Yet your QB has performed MUUUUUCH worse while having MUUUUCH better offensive weapons. Amazing.

 

Only to those that half ass stats in their benefit. The toilet bowl, as you put it, has been just that.

 

Two words: hot and garbage.

I never once raved about him being an "MVP candidate" and have been pretty adamant that he needs to play better before they start winning some games. I do forget... how did they fare head-to-head this season?

Just think it's weird to crow about a below-average passer as an "MVP candidate" when he's trashed nobodies and struggled mightily against average to above-average defenses.

 

Not really. We have consistently called him a below average QB for two years.

In 2019 he is redefining the term "sucks".

 

If it makes you feel better, R_R_3,

Here's where I was wrong. I've gone on record multiple times stating I didn't think he could, given his style of play, survive as an NFL QB. To his credit, he's still upright and playing.

 

I don't know where you're pulling those stats from.

To wit... "Miami 22nd":

Total Points Against: 32nd
Total Yards: 30th
First Downs: 28th
Passing TDs: 31st
Passing INTs: 31st
Net Yards per Attempt: 32nd
Yards: 22nd

Ahhh... you just picked the most favorable stat for Lamar. Got it.

Passing ratings (more encompassing stat) allowed, by team (and rank):

Miami: 127.1 (32nd)
Arizona: 113.0 (29th)
Kansas City: 82.5 (8th)
Cleveland: 99.9 (24th) - LOSS
Pittsburgh: 86.7 (12th)
Cincinnati: 100.8 (25th)
Seattle: 83.8 (10th)

"Weighted average" of 20th.

Using the same filter for Bake...

Tennessee: 87.6 (15th)
New York: 83.6 (9th)
Los Angeles: 87.8 (16th)
Baltimore: 81.7 (7th)
San Francisco: 60.7 (2nd)
Seattle: 83.8 (10th)

"Weighted average" of 10th.

So Baker's facing - on average - the 10th best pass defense in the NFL. Nice try.

 

lol How is it the most favorable stat for Lamar when all I did was look up NFL pass defense rankings? Is the NFL ranking them like that for Lamar's benefit? And considering you used total defense to critique pass performance, the implication that I cherry picked is an interesting one.

I guess if anything, it's good to see you got away from using total team yards allowed as a measuring tool for a QBs passing only performance.

Before I go into this, where are you getting your pass stats from? I'm on NFL.com and pretty much most of these numbers are slightly off from what they have.

Once you let me know your source, I'll use that same source to show you how Baker's 2019 performance and Lamar's 2019 performance has impacted every single one of those rankings AND I'll even take the time to show what those team's opposing passer rating allowed numbers are in the games without the Ravens and/or Browns factoring in. That's something I've never done, but I'm willing to bet Baker has done a much better job of making opposing defenses look good than Lamar has.

Also, explain your "weighted average" for the sake of consistency

 

SAS lives at 2349 PFF Avenue

 

Lamar had 2 more TDs, 1 more INT, a 6 point difference in passer rating, and watched Nick Chubb carry Baker to a win, Lamar played very poor defense in that head to head. He couldn't pick off a single Mayfield pass

"struggled mightily against average to above average defenses"? I thought we were talking about Lamar in this section, not Baker

 

I respect your take, but stats don't tell the whole story beach. IMO he's absolutely worthy of the hype. Just because he doesn't do it like Brady, or in a traditional way, I'm not going to take anything away from Jackson. All I know is, if I'm an opposing defensive coordinator, I'm nervous and probably not getting any sleep the night before the game. In many ways, I'd rather face a Wentz or a Roethlisberger or name whatever "dropback" passer you want.. At least you have a good idea of where they are gonna be. Lamar Jackson is just a different thing. Hype-worthy all day in my book, and dude is just getting started.

 

A. SAS has consistently proven to use bad-faith arguments, outright incorrect and manipulated numbers, and exclusive confirmation bias. It would be wise not to waste your time on him or his given numbers.

B. SAS and several on this board live to cherry pick stats with / without games or instances. And no, they will not receive the same treatment gracefully.

I scouted a game of Mayfield's in his last collegiate year against one of his few legitimate defensive competitors, and he was not good. I shared my concerns, while also saying I was a fano of his. The complaints were that I shouldn't be looking at his worst game... There are those in this board's crowd who don't appreciate truly critical thinking.

C. SAS has for months been calling Mayfield one of the best in the league, one of the best in NFL history, and a future HOF'er, among many other similar things. Please don't let him lie to you and give you a bunch of bullshit.

Stepping away from stats and just looking at the tape - Jackson still needs a lot of improvement as a passer. Frankly, I have always believed that he'll never truly be a decent NFL passer. That said, with his running ability, he may be able to mitigate that. I also haven't watched much Ravens football this year, so I'm looking forward to seeing more of him, and seeing what progress he makes.

 

To back up this sentence that SAS thought was so hilarious, see below. On that list is 14 total teams, almost half the league, including a 5-1 team, a 4-2 current division leader, another 4-2 team, and every AFC North team. It's also 100 offensive yards shy of 3 other teams, including the undefeated 49ers. That's worthy of MVP talks. Whether he wins it or not is another case.

 

I used total defense because it's... total defense? How else would you propose evaluating a running back?

Pro Football Reference. The delta is ESPN doesn't take sack yardage into account in the calculation.

It's your calculation... just adding the overall rankings and dividing by games played.

If I meant Baker, I would have said "elite", not "above average".

 

I'd judge a RB by run defense stats, as pass defense doesn't factor into their rushing performance. Since we're talking about QBs, I figured you'd agree it's nonsensical to use rush defense in judging passing performance. I guess not

As said, I used NFL.com, but I can use PFF going forward.

So knowing all that goes into figuring out a passer rating, you just decided to do this one the easiest way possible? ok, I'll do that

"elite". Now I'm confused because you're definitely not talking Baker

 

If the 2018 draft was redone right now Jackson would be the top QB picked and Rudolph would be the second.
Josh Allen might go before Rudolph. Baker definitely wouldn't be the number one overall pick.

 

Could you imagine Hue Jackson picking Lamar Jackson?

Curious... how would Rudolph by #2?