NFL - Random Opinions

At the rate Goober's going, it could very well end up being in Cleveland.

 

The Bucs secondary is failing to recognize the opportunity that Kyle Allen’s style of passing is presenting.

 

I’d like to get into some Browns talk after the game today.

There’s a whole lot to breakdown regarding Cleveland.

 

It would probably be more interesting than the game itself.

 

Buccaneers give up the open underneath stuff and Moore and McCaffrey are taking advantage. Too soft, in my opinion.

 

Holy Cow!

Jameis is being Jameis… again.

 

More horrible officiating underway.

zebras with an awful blindside block call against Jarvis Landry that snuffed out a possible Browns drive.

 

Just some brutal officiating in this Browns/Seahawks game

 

Hard to argue. It's been a rough year for the stripes so far.

 

Game is over. I'll start . . .

Here's my way too early Post-Mortem on the Browns' 2019 season.

The Browns' season actually started to unravel on March 13th, 2019. That's the day that John Dorsey traded Kevin Zeitler for Olivier Vernon. If the basic tenet of winning football is "run the ball and stop the run", then he only got half of it right. In the Browns' two lopsided blowout losses to the Titans and 49ers, Henry and Brieda ran at will against the Browns. (Carson for the Seahawks ran for well over 100 yards today, as well.)

Then consider that on the very next day (3/14/19), he signed free agent DT Sheldon Richardson. He had to know when he traded for Vernon that Richardson would be signing with the Browns. Vernon, so far, has been allmost invisible. Vernon hasn't been awful, but not a significant upgrade over his predecessor, Emanuel Ogbah, who became expendable and was subsequently traded for Safety, Morgan Burnett. Why Burnett? Because Dorsey traded his starting Safety, Jabrill Peppers, to the Giants as part of the Odell Beckham, Jr trade. Say what you want about Peppers, he's still a better Strong Safety than Morgan Burnett.

So, basically, he traded an integral piece of his O-line (required to run the ball - AND - protect his shiney new franchise QB), for a lateral move on the D-line and a step backwards at Safety (plus a 1st round pick) all for a wide receiver with a lot of talent combined with a perceived "me first" attitude. For a guy who walked on water around the Cleveland fan base 6 weeks ago, I would suggest he take his wallet out of his pocket if he wants to keep his folding money dry.

I'll get into OBJ, Baker Mayfield and Freddie Kitchens later.

 

I think your spot on with the personnel moves and how they were supposed to be addition by subtraction, but ultimately is just shaping up to be a double negative.

Something that I still can't understand is why they play away from Baker's power for stretches at a time. Someone in that building has to know that his strengths are in the short/intermediate and between the hashes. Odell Beckham has been one of the best receivers in the league at running the quick slant since he entered it, so why are the Browns not hammering that quick pass on early downs to switch up the distance on second and third? How are they going away from jumping that in play-action with consistency? They hit on it today and it was clean and effective, so just go back to the well more often. It's not like they have to limit that just to Odell, because Jarvis is more than capable of making that play as well.

Now, as for Baker, he needs to learn to develop some damn touch. You simply cannot rifle everything at 1,000 miles an hour and expect your receivers to be able to corral it. That last pick of the day was an unnecessary hot pass to the back shoulder. The receiver gifted it up to the defense because it just came in smoking to the wrong side of his body. The first pick is hard to fault him on because it involves timing and the trust that the receiver will be there (this goes back to the conversation that @BearsWillWin and I had earlier about the goal line play with SEA/NE). However, there is a trend developing here and it's something that I mentioned predraft with Mayfield. You cannot make every pass in the same manner a softball shortstop rockets it to first. You have to be able to develop some feel for when to bring the heat and when to just complete the damn pass. I'm getting a little concerned that it has to do with a lack of quick reaction to openings and trying to compensate by speeding up the release to completion time, but right now I still think it's more that his accuracy may depend on putting everything he has into every pass. That would correlate with being more accurate towards the center of the field.

Looking at the secondary, until they are healthy with Ward and Williams it's tough to gauge where they really are, but Peppers is playing really well taking over for Collins. It has the feel like they might have given up on him one season too soon.

They're still searching for their identity as a team, IMO. Are they a running team that focuses on clock control and stout defense? Are they a passing team that can flash up and down the field at will? Are they a balanced team that can do both at will and be strong on both sides of the ball?

Right now, they look like none of the above. They flash individual talents, and play like a collection of individuals rather than a cohesive unit.

The Seahawks are a very good football team so it's hard to really blast them out of the water for dropping this game at home. But it's showing signs of possibly unraveling for Kitchens and company.

 

Odell Beckham, Jr.

No doubt, he's a gifted athlete capable of embarrassing defensive secondaries. He also came to Cleveland with a perceived attitude problem. So far, neither has shown to be true. On the plus side, he does draw (at least) double coverage which should open up opportunities for the other receivers and again, so far, it appears to be exactly the case. The problem, as I see it, is Mayfield hasn't delivered a catchable ball to those other receivers on a consistent basis.

Baker Mayfield

Some of Mayfield's completion percentage problems are exactly as you eluded to in your 1st response above. He relies on velocity to achieve accuracy. However, I firmly believe most of his issues this year stem from a lack of confidence in his O-line. At the very first sign of pressure (real or perceived), he abandons the pocket and, like he has done his entire career, tries to make a silk purse out of a sow's ear. He got away with it in college and last year (against mediocre NFL teams) but it shows it won't work against the level of competition he's facing this year.

 

I think some of the issue with Odell is that they are trying to manufacture situations to get him the ball instead of just lining up and letting it happen naturally. If Baker goes through his reads and only finds Beckham only open once, so be it. There will become a moment throughout the season where the defense can no longer key on him and he will just naturally come open. Until then, keep hitting Landry and the rest.

Some of those issues with the Odell/Baker connection also tie into what you posted about Baker -

Not having Higgins is hurting this offense more than what some people would think. Losing Njoku adds to that issue. Those losses make it easier for the defense to key on Beckham.

As for the confidence issue with the OL, I agree to an extent, but it was also something that some of us discussed predraft as an issue that may be tougher for him to overcome because of his stature and lack of elite athleticism.

Out of curiosity - How much do you think Baker's penchant for scrambling unnecessary comes from feeling pressure as compared to wanting to move to create the big play?

 

We had a brief discussion about this on the Browns board last Thursday. Through week 5, Mayfield had been sacked 16 times for a -128 yards. Of those 16 sacks, only 5 were attributed to a specific O-lineman (3.5 to the LT, 1.5 to the LG). We guessed that 3 more could have been attributed to either a TE or a RB (sacks aren't charged to those positions). That leaves 8 sacks that weren't charged to another person. Based on those numbers, it's my opinion that at least 50% of his sacks are due to his perception that the protection is breaking down.

Add in that of all the sacks that were charged against a specific lineman were on his blind side. That means that, in the 8 sacks that we came up with that were due to Baker's decision to escape, they were probably coming from his right side and therefore the pressure should have been visible to him during the course of the play.

Regarding his desire to make a big play . . . Of course he does. Every skilled position player in the NFL wants to make a big play - every play.

 

The catchable ball point is a really good one. That’s a part of the reason so many of Mayfield’s INTs seem to be ones where his receiver touches the ball first.

Baker is a hard one to figure out right now. Some snaps he looks like the second coming and then others look like an uneducated rookie. All the physical tools are certainly there.

 

I think the issue comes when forcing the big play becomes more important than letting the circumstances dictate what’s necessary.

 

Oh, there's no doubt he forcing plays this year. Most of the time it's because his team is behind and hes trying to get them back in the game. Theres also no doubt hes playing a much higher caliber of opponents so far this year than last year. With the weapons he has at his disposal this year, if given time to stand in the pocket, go through his progressions and set his mechanics, he probably wouldn't be playing as poorly as he is.

 

Baker Mayfield (continued)

Last year he had Landry, Higgins, Calloway and Chubb at his disposal. This year, he has Beckham, Landry, whoever isn't suspended or injured, and Chubb. The difference, so far is Higgins. So, unless Higgins is a better WR than Beckham, I would say his weapons are, at least, as good this year if not better. Yet his performance is substantially worse.

The talking heads keep chirping about a 2.5 second average release time. Assuming they're correct, he must have had that 2.5 seconds last year. Without looking it up, I can safely say his average release time this year is probably upwards of 3 seconds. Last year his O-line was Robinson, Bitonio, Tretter, Zeitler and Hubbard. This year its Robinson, Bitonio, Tretter, Kush and Hubbard. IMHO, the difference between Zeitler and Kush accounts for some of that half second longer release time. The rest is due to facing better opponents.

 

Some of the release time issues correlate with him either being slow to go through his progressions or simply trying to force certain aspects, such as getting the ball to Beckham. Some of the reason why they were able to play lights out last season came off of simply implementing a lot of what Baker was comfortable with in Oklahoma and just going balls out with no expectations. This year, defenses have some idea of how to attack him and can constrict him into playing more of a conventional NFL offense.

The offensive line is definitely an issue, but his stature also makes it so that he needs to move some to create lanes to throw. Part of that is getting deeper in the pocket than some quarterbacks have to and the other is that he wants to move out of the pocket way too soon. The pressure not coming directly into his face forces him to step up, so when defensive lines bring players from the outside and hold their ground in the middle it bottles him in and forces him to throw from that hole. I don't think he's really comfortable when all of the arms are up in front of him with nowhere to escape out the back.

Signing Beckham created a dynamic where a star receiver expected to be an integral part of winning games and fattening stat lines. That goes against what should be the strength of this offense, which is the ground game, especially once Kareem Hunt returns and the ability to run at full throttle with the rushing attack will be available for a 6 week stretch. Kitchens has to stick to what works and not worry about any issue not having Odell involved will create.

Now, winning could cure all of the ails when it comes to the personalities, but so long as they are struggling the potential for implosion down the stretch may become a reality.

 

Still worried about Dallas...?