Looking Forward to the 2019 AFC North

Well, for starters...

So, being able to use the previous stats (not metrics, but literal per game stats), Baker Mayfield is/was better in 2018 than every other NFL quarterback not named Drew Brees or Patrick Mahomes - and the competition in those top three spots was very close with Mayfield second in most categories.

Conclusion: Mayfield is a Top 3 quarterback.

I watched not only all 16 Browns games, but many of the other NFL games in 2018 - including those by the quarterbacks you insisted were/are better than Baker. Of them, only two - Mahomes (who's so insanely physically gifted at throwing it's not funny) and Brees (who's so historically prolific it's unreal) stood out to me as better than Baker. Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson are close, but behind, which is covered by my previous ranking.

Conclusion: Mayfield is a Top 3 quarterback.

So please reference back to post #691 where I introduced some PFF metrics (non-standard stats) that demonstrated Baker was better than most, if not all quarterbacks. Two similar names you'll see in those discussions - Drew Brees and Patrick Mahomes.

Conclusion: Mayfield is a Top 3 quarterback.

I touched on this, but only briefly. However...

Mayfield, without any offseason or pre-season work with the first team offense came into a game down 14 after the incumbent starter ran himself into an injury, proceeded to come back from down 14, win that game (the first in something like 18 months for the franchise), and take the starting job, turning a previously 0-16 team into a 7-8-1 team (going 7-7 in his starts plus one (halftime of he Jets game the was thrust into).

Contrast that with some of the top names and really only Brees and Brady stand out as a catalyst for massive change. Rodgers, Wilson, and Luck all inherited perennial top-performing teams/rosters. Matt Ryan took over a 4-12 team and has posted a 0.586 win record since. Rivers took over a 21-11 team (from Brees) and has posted 0.567 win record since - a majority of those years with one of the best running backs in the history of the NFL.

Mayfield, in his first season, took a 1-31 team and won seven games (0.500 win record).

Conclusion: Mayfield is a Top 3 quarterback.

 

Your words.

 

Actually, I'm not the thin-skinned beta-male that whined about 'ad hominem-ism' because you were being thoroughly trounced in an online argument.

 

Let's just start here....

Mayfield was 17th in YPG.......11th in TD%....and 24th in completion %.

I await your rebuttal.....

 

I've never denied them. I'm not only okay with being an asshole...I'm proud of it.

I wasn't whining....and I definitely haven't been trounced.

Misquoted and lied about. But not trounced.

 

Let me also add 12th in Yards Per Attempt....19th in rating....22nd in QBR....23rd in W/L. 10th in yards gained per completion.

 

Yep.

He was also in a very unique situation in Cleveland that only Aaron Rodgers also found himself in in 2018, whereby his head coach and offensive system was changed during the season (a usual recipe for disaster). Rodgers' stats in his four games without McCarthy look worse than his 12 games with:

With (adjusted NFL rank)
Cmp%: 61.8 (29th)
TD%: 4.5 (21st)
Int%: 0.2 (1st)
YPG: 292.0 (6th)
Rate: 99.3 (11th)

Without (adjusted NFL rank)
Cmp%: 64.2 (t-22nd)
TD%: 3.0 (t-32nd)
Int%: 0.7 (2nd)
YPG: 234.5 (24th)
Rate: 91.6 (23rd)

Contrasted with Baker...

With (adjusted NFL rank)
Cmp%: 58.3 (31st)
TD%: 3.6 (t-25th)
Int%: 2.7 (t-22nd)
YPG: 245.2 (20th)
Rate: 78.9 (31st)

Without (adjusted NFL rank)
Cmp%: 68.4 (7th)
TD%: 7.2 (3rd)
Int%: 3.0 (25th)
YPG: 281.8 (8th)
Rate: 106.2 (5th)

So Baker, compared to a QB I consider to be a Top 5 in the NFL and you yourself consider to be better than Baker went from bottom-ranked to near the top in almost every category, despite the instability of the organization around him. Rodgers, on the other hand, declined in all but one category.

 

What does that have to do with any of the stats I mentioned and Mayfield's ranking as compared to his peers in each stat?

Care to rebut what I actually typed?

 

Adjusted, Weeks 9 - 17:

YPA: 8.6 (3rd)
Rating: 106.2 (5th)
W-L: 0.625 (t-8th)
YGpC: 12.5 (5th)

QBR is a proprietary stat whose formula is not publicly available and should be discarded as a viable metric. You told me wins and losses were a poor barometer since it's a team result.

 

Rodgers barely played in 1 of those 4 games...only throwing 5 passes in the season ending game.

1 of those 4 games was against a team that had, arguably, the league's best defense and was playing to clinch the division.

In the other 2 games Rodgers was 58 for 87 with 638 yards and 4 touchdowns and no interceptions. And his team won both games.

And this was all in a "down" season from Rodgers in which he probably broke and at the very least bruised his fibula in week 1 and played on it all season.



Also, I like how you manage to use the coaching change as both a positive and negative for Mayfield depending on which point you're trying to make. You move the goal posts more than any poster I've ever seen before.

 

You must have missed it...

Without (adjusted NFL rank)
Cmp%: 68.4 (7th)
TD%: 7.2 (3rd)
Int%: 3.0 (25th)
YPG: 281.8 (8th)
Rate: 106.2 (5th)

 

Are those the only weeks that matter when you need to try to prove a point?

When did weeks 1-8 not become meaningful in terms of stats?

Just because you don't know the formula doesn't mean you can discard it. That's crap.

And I stand by that. I'm using your logic and you were the first to bring up W/L because you obviously put stock in it.

 

Those are cherry picked stats.

And he's only top 3 in one of them. So.......

 

Cherry pick....move the goal post....make an excuse. Rinse and repeat.

 

Those sound like excuses, but the "down year" is interesting...

Rodger's last four seasons' worth of data (some time missed due to injury - another point for later) on a per game basis:

Cmp%: 63.2
TD%: 5.6
Int%: 1.2
YPG: 261.2
Rate: 98.2

Very good numbers. That's a Top 5 quarterback playing the last four of his 14 seasons, all but one of which with the same head coach and offensive coordinator (read: consistency).

Mayfield's Week 9 - 17:

Cmp%: 68.4
TD%: 7.2
Int%: 3.0
YPG: 281.8
Rate: 106.2

As a rookie, it's pretty clear to see that he's dominating Rodgers' numbers - all but interceptions-thrown, in fact.

 

I think you may want to read up and get an understanding of what "cherry-picked" stats mean.

An example of "cherry-picked" would be taking the Atlanta game (17 of 20, 216 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 151.2 rating, 0 sacks) and applying those numbers against the rest of the NFL's body of work.

Baker's, again, in a unique position where his season has two very distinct and clear acts - distinct and clear at least to people who don't have a very anti-Browns agenda.

Act 1 (with Hue/Haley) involved him getting zero starter reps in the lead-up to the season, being thrust into action, and playing with a coach and coordinator who did not put Mayfield - and the team as a whole - in the best position to win.

These were Weeks 3 - 8.

Act 2 (with Williams/Kitchens) involved him being the undisputed starter, getting all the reps, changing the roster around him (Greg Robinson, Nick Chubb, Breshad Perriman, etc.), and playing with a coach and coordinator who did put him - and the team - in a better position to be successful.

These were Weeks 9 - 17.

The production for those weeks speaks for itself and clearly sets Mayfield apart from the rest of the league. It's not "cherry-picking" to project those stats forward as his coordinator (Kitchens) was hired as the head coach and coordinator of the team in the offseason, largely in part to his relationship and success with Mayfield.

 

His injury is an excuse. But it's factual. He was hurt. And it was his fibula. I put down year in quotes because a lot analysts have called it that and it's funny to be because his stats are still very good.

Again....why are you cherry picking one players stats and comparing it versus another players 4 seasons worth of numbers? That's insane cherry picking.

How about we let Mayfield play a full 3 or 4 seasons and then compare him? Why is that such a crazy idea?

 

You cherry pick because you choose the stats that best fit your argument and then ignore the rest.

Twice now I've posted Mayfield's completion percentage, touchdown percentage, yards per game, and so on for the whole season and his ranking as compared to his peers. This is part of my argument why he can't yet be considered a top 3 QB.

Both times you've ignored reality and created your own.

You can't pick and choose which stats matter and which ones don't. Either take all of them for what they are or take nothing at all.

 

So, can we rewind to 2016 and officially call Dak Prescott a "Top 3 QB", and project his success into next year accordingly? I'm sure that's a flawless approach, right?

I'm just saying, a reasonable person would've seen this argument, looked at the last few years of historical references, and realize how absolutely nonsensical it is. For reference, I provided some active-QB examples, a page or two ago.

 

I don't have an anti-Browns agenda. I have nothing against the Browns.

I have an anti-homer agenda. And an anti-headinasslogic agenda.