Not sure if you were talking to others besides me. But it’s possible you were trying to overcharge for a trade up and that’s why nothing happened. I mean I guess part of me said “don’t stress, take Fant if Hock is gone”, but even without Fant I wasn’t paying my 1st and 2nd plus more (which you hinted at) to move up 4 spots in the back of the first. From 5 > 1 or 6 > 2 maybe. But I think anyone would be nuts to pay that to move up late in most years. This class for dynasty is a bit unusual too, in that the middle was stronger vs draft spot, as opposed to the top 2-3 guys, who were arguably weaker vs draft spot. I just mean with no Zeke or Saquan this year. And lots of potential values between rounds 2-4
The offers may have been there if Murray or Singletary were available. I was getting no offers close to what you turned down. I could have potentially lived with 12 and 24 but I wanted that and a little more. I don't know if you even give 12 and 24. At that point seeing how the board falls it's probably AJ, Deebo or Mecole. I could have missed out on free picks if Brown was the one that fell but I wouldn't have been too happy with one of the others and 2.12. Best case, if you did 12 and 24, would be Brown and Gallup anyways then use a 3rd on Hill. My draft wouldn't have been too much different but I may have an extra pick and not lost Goodwin and Thompson. Looking back I'm fine with not doing anything considering how the rest of the draft went.
I wasn’t going anywhere near 12 + 24 either. I was aiming more for 12 + 31 for 8 + a 5th Rounder back. As soon as you mentioned 12 and 24 I was immediately thinking well, let the chips fall where they may. And I should be grateful. Hockenson fell anyways. And I got Bosa with the 3rd I didn’t give away after trading back two spots from 31 and gaining a 5th (Kahale Warring). Pretty fortuitous in the end.
As for how I thought things would go, I genuinely pictured Hockenson going in the top 6 and me landing Parris Campbell or my worst case scenario (Deebo Samuel). I honestly had Hockenson 3rd on my board behind only Montgomery and Josh Jacobs.
Ya I wouldn't have liked that. I'd be giving picks up to move back up into the 2nd and possibly do nothing more than drop in the 1st for no gain.
All of this is a matter of perspective. If I were you, I’d view it as moving back 4 spots to move up 19 spots in a draft that’s strong right where you’d be moving to. Tim made probably three trades like that. I wouldn’t have blamed you if you threw something on top like a 8th > 7th swap or something. Just icing on the cake. But again, unless you loved someone at 8 the way I was loving Hock (which I doubt since you looked to trade), it’s worth what you would gain.
It's something that you and I discussed pre-draft and Joe and I discussed post-draft, being the idea that this class was heavier with talent in that round 2-5 range. It was a strategy that I felt strongly about in this draft.
I would have tried to copy you a little more, but no way I was moving 1(12) when Hockenson fell. And 2(12) fell at an unfortunate spot in time when I woke up to find I’d been holding things up for almost an hour. I still put out a feeler, but didn’t wait long...and I had the feeling not many were hanging around at that point anyways. @Tim here’s the irony of you trading out of 2(11) and @KTSHEA92 taking Devin White there. When I inquired about trading up to there it was with the intention of possibly going back to back defenders (likely D.White/Bosa), since I already owned 2(12). In the end I got sniped for that exact player there after deciding not to trade up to that spot. Ironic, and my bad I guess. I can’t remember a past draft where two defenders were chosen that high. So I didn’t expect it. After that happened I considered taking Bosa at 2(12) but just couldn’t justify spending a top 24 pick on the lowest scoring position in our league. Took Arcega-Whiteside there and managed to grab Bosa with my next pick after trading back to gain 5(9) Fun draft this year though. I hope Hockenson proves to be the guy I think he is.
And that is definitely a factor in whether or not it is a solid idea to make moves to gather picks in a range you prefer.
I needed fresh blood as my roster was full of holes that I wasn't going to fill or couldn't fill through the Waver Wire. Therefor, I targeted many draft picks... I simply needed the depth.
There's also the aspect of where our picks were (you and I) and how it actually gave me a bit of an advantage for trading with people that either had multiple picks in the next round or situations with fewer picks that gave me a bit more leverage. Each draft is a different animal to work with. This one just happened to have a lot of opportunity for someone that started off with multiple picks to shuffle. KT was looking at a pair of players and trying to move on the board so that he could get both, but he didn't have enough draft assets to make that play happen. Once he knew for sure that he either had to stand and hope or move up to secure at least one target, he made the trade believing that White would be taken by you at 12. He had a pretty solid read on that situation and made the right decision, IMO.
Standing your ground and taking a top player at #2 makes it so that you can't load up in the next few rounds, but it was the right decision to make, IMO. If Montgomery becomes a horse in that offense, you will be working with two young and talented rushers for the next few seasons while you work on filling out the rest of the holes in your roster. One of which will be filled if/when Drew Lock takes over as the starter in DEN. And long term, I think you likely hit on Sternberger, which fills out another hole for several years.
Tim is right. You did a great job likely with your top 3 picks. Matter of fact, my bro picked one spot before you took Lock, and I told him I thought he’d be a fool not to grab Lock there (Luck and Eli his only 2). He felt it wasn’t that important. Likely his loss = your gain
What was more surprising to me was that he never took a swing at Daniel Jones. IMO, that's an easy pick to make knowing full well that he's going to be chilling for a year then replacing a roster spot.
TE TJ Hockenson WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside DL Nick Bosa WR Demarcus Robinson PK Giorgio Tavecchio TE Kahale Warring DL Chase Winovich DB Juan Thornhill LB Patrick Onwuasor He considered it for sure. I think it’s a combination of trying to wait one round too long and feeling too low on Jones’ prospects going forward. A sentiment shared by arguably a few too many. But I would like to add this: I drafted Daniel Jones for the Skins in both mocks. I obviously believe he’s capable of being a good player on a good team. However, imagining real life team dynamics and building a dynasty team are two different things. I chose Jones over Lock twice in the mocks. No F’ing way I’d take Jones over Lock for my dynasty team. Lock was my absolute worst case scenario at 24. If the first 23 picks had copied my board, Lock would be a Trash-Talker now.
Usually we only get 1 defender go in the 2nd round but then the 3rd and 4th get bonkers. This year was very different though. You know how we were saying there is lots of talent available in rounds 2-5? Well that is because defense just wasn't going. 2 in the 2nd, 2 in the 3rd, 3 in the 4th, 4 in the 5th. 11 in 60 picks. Last year we had 14. In 2016 we had 16 and in 2015 we had 16 as well.
I think the reason why defense wasn't being selected at the same pace was because of how much available offensive talent there was in those rounds.