Will, just some thoughts... Jeff Skinner is a pending UFA and is having a spectacular season, (I also will remind readers that his shooting percentage is over 2x his career average. Uhmm, that may not be sustainable.) Regardless, he has tremendous value, and he also has been embraced in Buffalo. There is much to suggest that Skinner would want to stay in Buffalo, but this will probably be his last really big contract and players fight like hell in CBA negotiations to get the right to help themselves as much as possible. I believe that he's probably worthy of about 10% of the cap, i.e., an AAV of $8 to $8.4MM over up to 8 years. I really hope he'll accept something shorter because I think at his size he may start to go into decline in his early/mid 30's, (he'll be 27 in July). If Skinner really insists on testing the UFA market, or if he holds out for the preposterous proposals bandied about on hockey chat boards, ($9.5MM AAV! Please!), then the right thing to do is to move him in February. They're not going to win the SC in 2019 with or without him. He may make it more likely that the Sabres compete for the cup over the next 2-4 years; but after this he probably becomes a declining asset and then a liability. Pommers was traded by the Wild not because he was paid too much, or because his production was too low. He did not fit into their overall cap structure so he came back to Buffalo. He is also a pending UFA but his circumstances are different - he does want to be in Buffalo and I think they can resign him in July for less. He could also be moved as a rental with the hope of coming back. Either way he's not worth losing sweat over, but he is a great locker room guy. Buffalo has some pretty decent depth now on the bottom six. These are not the types that make a difference for SC winners - individually - but collectively a SC contender needs to roll 4 lines and the Sabres have assets that may attract deadline buyers. Since in many cases, Buffalo already has replacements in the pipeline it presents an opportunity to get younger. Botterill is purported to be a cap guru. There appears to be a lot of flexibility with the cap over the next few seasons. There's every reason to believe that the team will not be greatly challenged to sign essential players lie Dahlin once they come up for extension. But they'll get to the stage - if things go well - where they'll need to play the obtain-cost-contained-talent game. That's where having a solid farm system, (both Rochester & ECHL Cincinnati are rolling this year), and three (possibly) first round picks in June become major considerations when evaluating the Sabres. I do not think Botts will make any rash or emotional decisions based on a few months of stats. It's business, and I think Buffalo is now in extremely competent hands. In the end, I thing the organization is fixated on becoming a legitimate SC contender and staying there for many years. That could start as early as next season, but more likely that window does not crack open until 2020-21, or even one year after that. All moves, therefore, will be weighted based on how well that asset (trade possibility) fit into the team's scheme; same thing when deciding who to offer contracts and for how much.
In the WTF! news category: The Buffalo Sabres have suspended Patrik Berglund for failing to report. He's had a very unproductive campaign after coming over in the ROR deal. He's got two more years left on his too high contract after this season. There was word that he was a great influence on the bevy of young Swedes; he was called Papa Swede. I cannot see a positive way out of this now. There is obviously something bad going on for a team that places great emphasis on character and team cohesiveness. They will have a very hard time trading an overpriced malcontented declining player. They may be forced to package him with a quality young asset for a bagel and an enema bag. WTF!
Sounds like Berglund didn't want to play in the first place so a suspension ought to suit him just fine. Maybe after 'riding the pine' for a while that will lite a fire under his ass and he will get it going. If not, say hello to the AHL?
Well, since he's suspended, Berglund forfeits a paycheck for every game he misses. That game-check comes off their cap. (I believe that's around $38k/game.) But his salary is a cap hit if he's playing. Rochester has too much young talent to have him steal a roster spot. The Amerks don't want him, and Buffalo does not want another Moulsonesque situation. I think that one way or another, Berglund needs to be flushed from the org.
Agreed. No room on an NHL roster in todays game especially with a malcontent. Plenty of pieces waiting in the wings that are chomping at the bit and could easily replace and improve Berglund's production.
Yeah, it's clear that - at the very least - St. Louis needed to include him in the trade to fit ROR under their cap. More likely it was more of a salary dump. But, Buffalo probably still wins the trade. Buffalo needed to move on from ROR. And this year's Sens and Avs narrative could become next year's Blues and Sabres "WTF were they thinking!" story.
St. Louis needed to include him in the trade to fit ROR under their cap. Blues just signed their new rookie to the roster....he is better with the Puck than most of the team....lol
funny how so many people - adults and kids included would love to be a pro athlete and this guy is and doesn't show up. wow.
Its time to start the second half of the season... Can Buffalo rebound and right the ship? I hope so. Now's the time to make a run. Good luck Sabres and Dan!
a bunch of teams need to right the ship Will. Sabres are one of them. Flyers need a miracle. this is when hockey is fun for me. playoff races get tighter and who rises to the top and who falls to the bottom.
By the end of February we'll probably know. I would not expect a general NHL fan to follow the Sabres closely, but Buffalo fans would make other teams fans look like they had nerves of steel. I've seen the mood shift from extreme high to extreme low, or vice versa, within the span of one hockey game. So, the swings over the course of this season have been brutal. The truth is that the team won 10 straight but only won one of those (maybe two) by more than a single goal, and several W's went to OT or SO. They get to keep the 20 points, so I'm not complaining, but they were never that good. Since then they've played at a, uhmmm, lower pace. Still, many of the L's were by a single goal, (or when they allowed a late EN'er). The team is not that bad. They're an extremely young and extraordinarily talented team that needs to learn Housley's system, (that's complex and I'm going to write about that separately one day), and to learn how to be consistent over a long grueling NHL season. But it is worth mentioning that Buffalo has played the hardest part of their season already - the games they're "supposed to lose" are behind them, and they have no more extended road trips. They have played several more on the road than back home. Obviously that means they have more home games over the balance of the schedule, and their record in Buffalo is very good. So, they're going to play a generally weaker schedule and in front of the re-energized home fans. They have games in hand vs. Montreal who is their stiffest competition for a wildcard spot. The bulk of the EC is too far back to be considered a serious threat. The smaller the bubble, the greater the odds are for each team that's on that bubble. I think the chances that the Sabres make the playoffs is about 50:50. I think that by the trade deadline we'll have a real good idea of how prescient I am - or how bad I look.
Well it's mid-Feb. and the Sabres must not have read my late January memo. The went something like 3-4 on the recent homestand and played several teams beneath them in the standings. They also got clobbered by Chicago and the NY Rangers. They are building a nice future, but they're not good enough to make the playoffs this season.
This is an honest assesment from a nucks fan that's a very knowledgable hockey guy. It might come across as smug at certain parts, but he does leave off with a lot of hope in the end. If the sabres end up with jack hughes or Kaako, they could very well make the playoffs next year. In the end, it's the core that matters most, Eichel, Dhalin, Risto, Mittelstadt, reinhart Montour, possibly pekka-L, *Skinner. Add Hughes or Kaako, they will be set. It's a lot easier to fill in bottom six players and 4-7 d-men.
Yeah, skinny, I think it's an objective overview from someone without an axe to grind with the Sabres. (I'm glad that the Nucks had the good graces to lose the first-ever draft lottery, and that Nucks fans don't seem butthurt about drafting Tallon instead of Perrault.) There's some real good pieces in Buffalo and in the pipeline, for sure. Signing Skinner will be expensive - probably excessively expensive - but necessary. Buffalo just does not have anyone else with his skill set. Our Nylander may yet prove the prognosticators right and develop into the best hockey player in his family. Mittlestadt had an underwhelming rookie campaign, but he's got crazy-good skills. Samson Reinhart has played himself into an indispensable role. Of course, Jack is pretty good too. If these five stay and achieve to their potential than that's a pretty good top-six, (well top six with one more add). Montour is, I believe, going to be having Atlantic foes kicking themselves over how he ended up in Buffalo. Rasmus Dahlin, simply stated, has lived up to the hype. (Disclaimer: I'm a big Rasmus Ristolainen fan with a 55 Buffalo sweater and a 5 Suomi. But, I think several years of overuse and abuse may have permanently stunted him. He also may be the team's most valuable trade chip. I want him to stay, but moving on may be better for him. Because I'm a fan, I want what's best for Risto.) Linus Ullmark is a dependable backstop; probably best suited for moderate use rather than a full starter role. UPL, or "6K's", is being talked about one of the best G prospects not already in the NHL. Goalies are notoriously hard to evaluate, so such claims must be taken with a grain of salt. Still, that if word applies. If he develops into a true starter, along with everyone cited above, then the future is promising. The team has a decent control over cap costs. It'll inevitably get tight if everyone develops has hoped for, but it will be manageable. Kyle Okposo is really the only bad contract for both remaining term and AAV. So, with extreme luck - like moving to the #1 or 2 spot on April 9th - and another steal like Skinner for Pu & change, the Sabres could make a big leap forward next season. I've learned that it's very hard to get good after a brutal slash & burn reconstruction. It requires better planning than what this team executed. It requires unwarranted degrees of luck - that didn't shine on Buffalo until the 2018 draft lottery. Oh, success depends on luck, shrewd planning and execution, and a coherent team-identity. That also requires a coach that can teach and motivate. Unfortunately the jury is definitely out on if TEH Phil has the requisite coaching chops. In the end, I'm left with a corollary to the adage that a SC Champion gets the benefit of the doubt until some other team beats them. A brutally bad team never truly deserves respect until they've earned it on the ice.
I'm no longer sold on Housley being given that long of a leash. I think it's going to come down to the player exit interviews after the season. I think it comes down an evaluation of has the HC lost the lockerroom or not. Bylsma rather certainly had lost the room, and it was no surprise he was canned. But the Pegulas can be iron-fisted, and they axed Tim Murray at the same time. I truly believe Botterill is doing a good* job and is safe. But the team better show a spark against a soft schedule down the stretch. Otherwise I think it could well be the outs for Phil. (* It might be a great job if it unfolds as promised. Skinner signs, Mittlestadt develops, and Botts finds another top six F.)
