Looking Forward to the 2019 AFC North

I agree. Especially considering he has experience playing for Steve Wilks....

I don't think we need 11 draft picks. I wonder what it would take?

 

Well, when you are talking about QBs that rated in the bottom 3 of lower for starters every season, a guy that rates in the top 20, to me, would be a God send. We have endured the worst QB turnover in the history of the game I believe...and it was earned. I used to blame scheme, not enough time with the unit, etc...then we saw Baker take over the game after sitting out 2.5 games to learn and he became something special. Leads me to believe, no matter what, none of the 30 QBs that came before him would have developed into anything, no matter what. You have it or you don't at that position. Some of them could have developed into Tyrod Taylor, but that would have been their ceiling.

 

We don't need to pick 11 players, I agree, but having them to be able to move up to get to a specific player just out of perceived reach...I don't know.

I would love to come out of this draft with around 5-6 players, all picked before the end of the 5th round. That gives us 6 draft picks to move to where we need to be to get to targets, including 2 extra 5th rounders, which are still fairly valuable to teams in need of depth. If we are moving up in the first to target a stud, then my expectations will lower from 5-6 to even 4 players overall. We are getting to a point where 6-7 rounders will need to show something special just to make the team.


(edit) If Wilks thinks he is ready to make the next step, I'd give up our first 3rd rounder.

 

lol! After re-thinking that for a sec, we went 1 and freaking 31! Yeah, he'd have qualified as a "God Send" here....

 

He's probably on final year of his deal...I'd think maybe we could get him for a little less, but just speculating....What did we get for Danny Shelton?

 

We got a 3rd for Shelton and sent a 5th to the Patriots..so in essence around a 4th rounder...However, Shelton was already into the 2018 season when he was traded. We would be getting Butler before the off season workouts even begin with expectations of him stepping in as a starter. I don't think the Pats were getting Shelton for anything other than a situational player.

Remember, Butler was the 30th overall pick in the first round, who was stuck behind Lotulelei and Short. A little different situation.

Really it depends on how Wilks feels about him. If he's confident he should be given an opportunity to start, then a 3rd rounder is small potatoes. If he has doubts, then you save that draft collateral for trading within the draft and get a sold guy at #17 or a slight move up if your guy drops out of the top 10.

(edit) Don't forget to not think about it as a one year deal...he still have his 5th year option available which gives us 2 years to figure it all out. I'm not sure what the 5th year option for the 3rd to last DT in the first round is, but I would think it wouldn't break the bank...I'll research.

(edit) 2019 5th year option for DTs in picks 11-32 was $7,154,000...so add 5-10%...should be around $7.8M for his 5th year option and second year as a starter. If you pick up the option and cut him prior to a certain date, I don't believe you eat the entire amount in cap space. It would be worth exploring IF Wilks has a good feeling for him as a starter.

 

well I'm dumb.

He still needs to miss less tackles

 

If he is not able to move the "extra" picks to move up this year would you to kick the can down the road and get a pick next year for them? Every year it seems we see a 6th traded for a 5th the next season.

 

Absolutely! Getting a 4th for a 5th, 5th for a 6th etc...is something I would expect if they are still at 11 picks entering the 5th round.

 

Freddie Kitchens on Baker Mayfield;

I like those guys that fight and claw for everything they get, and that is what he is”..... “I don’t think he is ever going to be settled. It is not something you have to pound into him that, hey you are not there yet. Hell, he knows that, but he is wanting to get there. When he gets to that level, he is going to try to get to the next level, and that is what you want in your quarterback and that is what you want in your team.

Sweet music.

 

Tackles are fine, but Schobert shines in his coverage ability, actually.

I suspect his missed tackles - just like the majority of the defense - is with trying to go for the strip versus the sure thing. Williams beat that into their heads.

Tackling is something these guys have had to do since Pop Warner. With the exception of hitting the quarterback (or defenseless receivers) it shouldn't be new territory for them to secure the tackle.

 

1. In the context of the post I responded to where TD suggested the rest of the AFC North teams are really worried about the Browns available cap space I am only talking about outside free agent shopping. Not retaining their own players. But in terms of carrying over cap space I think they will pay for anyone they want to retain with other maneuvers described in #3.

2. I don't think Robinson or Perriman have earned that kind of payday. I think Robinson's play had a lot to do with the offensive game plan and Baker's ability. Perriman would be the more likely candidate for a 1 year prove it deal IMO. The Browns might like to lock him up for 3 years but if I'm Perriman's agent there's no way I go for that.

3. Also, I think there's a chance you pick up some cap space by moving on from Collins. That guy is lazy. Randall is already on the books 9M in cap space. An extension for him would be a cap saver unless they were trying to dump money into '19 and help their efforts to meet the salary floor in '20. They did that in Landry's deal so that's a possibility. The T.J. Carrie contract looks ripe to move on from. He certainly didn't earn a 8M payday in 2019. That would free up 6.2M.

 

Plus nobody on the whole damn team played well with Hue pulling the strings. Tyrod could fit in nicely elsewhere.

 

This article makes sense. They only thing I would disagree on is if they really were players for a major free agent like a DeMarcus Lawrence they could structure the contract in a way that didn't impact future extensions like they did with Jarvis' contract. That's the real blessing in having so much space. They can use it to benefit them both short term and long term.

 

Both are pedestrian amounts for their respective positions.

Robinson is a starter, therefore he's going to earn at least $8M. A good one goes for much more.

Perriman has had a rough go in the NFL. He finally found some semblance of success. If I'm him or his agrnt, I would take what I could get while I can get it.


As far as #3.. I agree they could move on from a few current players as well.. but for Randall, he's in his final year, a new deal is imminent. It isn't about saving on the $9M, it's about extending his services before hitting free agency.

 

Here's the thing beach, we have 4 years of Baker being affordable. Trying to get a Lombardi NOW makes a helluva lot more sense than worrying about 2023's cap.

 

He's an unproven starter who still has issues out of a 3-point stance. The kid signed for league minimum this summer. He didn't erase all the bad tape that made 31 other teams pass on him in free agency. I don't even think it's fair to call him a starter at this point. Kitchens and Mayfield put him in a great situation. I think I read somewhere that 80% of the Browns passes came out of shotgun. That really works in Robinson's favor being able to pass protect out of a two-point stance.

No chance Perriman signs for 3yrs, 15M unless his agent is a complete moron. He's the ideal candidate for a one-year prove it deal. If someone wants to lock him up for 3 years (which would make his next free agency possibility heading into his 29 year old season) it will take more money than that.

For most teams a guy heading into his 5th year option signing a new contract would lower his cap number. Eric Berry is the highest paid safety in football (6yrs, 78M). His first year cap number was 5 million. The Browns could choose a different approach and bury more money in the first year but that doesn't mean they are taking their 80M and going hog wild on free agents. It really says the opposite. They are taking a very measured approach - one that would be way more prudent.

 

Everyone is trying to get a Lombardi now but it's really hard to do even if you make all the right moves. I think Haslam, with his Steelers background is more interested in sustained success. Lots of teams have tried the win now approach. Few have pulled it off. Off the top of my head I can only think of the Broncos with Peyton. And it's a good thing they won it because that approach led to 20-28 over the three seasons since then. Imagine if the Steelers had AB and Bell (or DeAngelo) in the divisional round? The Broncos don't win that game. Then it was all for nothing.

Do you want to be a team that gets really close and then falls back into mediocrity because you gambled and lost? How many teams really succeed competing for free agents? Miami has been trying for years. The Giants have tried it. Oakland, Houston, Kansas City, Washington, Jacksonville, Minnesota, Tampa Bay. It rarely works. Maybe you could add the Eagles to the list of teams that pulled it off. But they didn't sign guys during the heart of free agency. They traded for guys like Jeffrey, Darby and Peters and then extended them.

I get where you're coming from and there is nothing wrong with filling some holes in free agency but competing for the top guys and blowing all your cash on them because you have a boatload of cap space is bad business. It doesn't matter how much you pay a guy. It doesn't guarantee his play. He may not fit in, he may get his money and become complacent, he may get injured.

 

I know I am a homer, one of the biggest on this website, but Baker Mayfield personally thanking Robinson and giving him a ringing endorsement tells me that what he did in the second half of the season was a VAST improvement over what his career had been to that point. He will be signed by a team...Just as you state, he doesn't have the accolades to dictate very much. What he enjoyed in Cleveland was success. Over his time as starter, not only did he thrive, the team went 5-3. He hasn't experienced that up to that point of his career.

As for shotgun, get ready to see it more frequently in the NFL. That's the same thing you see in Kansas City.

The Browns are going to be running a lot of RPO this next year.

Perriman is in the same boat as Robinson, except he was even more average over his short career. He only has 6 game starts...in his career...not in Cleveland. He showed some flashes with Baker Mayfield, but where do you think he's going to go and get more than $5M a year over 3 years? That puts him in the Julian Edelman, Allen Hurns, Torrey Smith range... what exactly do you expect him to sign for?

So Hurns signed a 2 yr, $11M contract...would that make you feel better? I'd agree with that contract as well...same general principle of a deal, except he is taking a chacne that going into his 5th year he is going to get better to earn more than the other $4M he's leaving on the table with the previous deal.

If you want a 1 year deal, it's going to be Cole Beasely money (and not necessarily with the Browns/Baker Mayfield)...$3.3-3.8M.. Bet on yourself and hope a rookie isn't drafted that comes in and takes away snaps.

AGAIN, I am not talking about spending $80M.... I'd have to go back and look to see how many times I have stated this... But teams that go all in, don't typically have what we have in place AND $80M in cap room. It affords Dorsey an opportunity to dial in on 1-2 premier free agents and get this team ready to compete for the AFC North. We are much closer now than any other year since the return...because we have Baker.

That is one thing the Broncos have been missing during that 20-28 run...no more premier QB. Even when they had him Manning was about 70% of his ceiling...yet that was still better than the vast majority of starters that year. It just goes to show, a team built like the Broncos are still average without a QB.

That's what teams that spend their wad do...

I'm not sure if you are just looking and seeing a couple of sentences and assuming I am saying something I am not or what. The original scenario that started this whole conversation, as extravagant as it was, still left $40M in carry over.

Cleveland has done it in the past also and failed miserably...why? Because they could ONLY focus on the free agents that ONLY focused on a payday. They didn't care if they were going to a contender or not. Now, they have the opportunity to focus in on guys looking to win, because whether you want it to be true or not, the league, players, fans, prognosticators and other coaching staffs see that the Browns on the verge of being one of those top teams. Free agents that want to win, look at this situation and I'm not sure there is a better situation in the league right now other than Cleveland and New England.

The Patriots do it year in and year out...the Browns are the new America's team. Every one and their brother are jumping on the bandwagon, whether they are fans or not.

They are the hot team with the Rams and Chiefs... Both of which are where the Browns will be in 3 years with less cap room ($25-32M) and free agents to sign..

Again, I think you are pegging me as a guy who wants them to go out and get 8 top dollar free agents and leave around $10M in cap space to carry over...That simply isn't the case.

We have a couple of top paid roster players right now...here are our top 8:
Jarvis Landry $14M
Kevin Zeitler $12.4M
Jamie Collins $11.8M (probably gone this off season, either by trade or simply cut)
Damarious Randall $9M (needs an extension)
Travis Carrie $8.9M (could possibly move on from him this off season)
Myles Garrett $8.3M
Christian Kirksey $8.2M
Baker Mayfield $7.4M
Total of the top 8 = $80M

Steelers top 8:
Ben Roethlisberger $23.2M
Antonio Brown $22.2M
Cameron Heyward $14.9M
Stephen Tuitt $13.6M
David DeCastro $12M
Joe Haden $11.9M
Bud Dupree $9.2M
Ryan Shazier $8.7M....as he will be on IR again, replace him with Alejandro Villanueva $8.4M
Total of top 8 = $115.7M

I would think we can afford to add a couple of free agents to the tune of around $35M...which I might add, would only raise that top 8 by about $25M, less if you move on from Carrie and Collins...

Whats the difference above? Your QB $23.2M our QB $7.4M.

The time to win is now, adding a couple KEY pieces at a little more money rather than adding a couple of complimentary pieces at a value could mean the difference between 10-6 and 12-4...and most probably the AFC North championship.

A signing of Frank Clark (about $17M/yr) and Grady Jarrett (about $16M) could make something like that reality... They would cost about $33M and the defense would IMMEDIATELY be considered on paper at the top of the AFC North..Mind you...those contract numbers aren't actual cap costs in year one, it would probably be around $8M less than that in reality, with outs in their contracts after year 3...

Add in some draft hopefuls and who knows, maybe that 2020 expectation becomes reality in 2019.

 

Well I would argue that he didn't exactly thrive. I'm not the biggest PFF fan but they ranked him as the 63rd best tackle I believe. And it certainly doesn't hurt that he plays beside Bitonio.

The best comp I could give you is Marquise Goodwin signing with SanFran in 2017 (3yrs, 19.25M, 7.7M guaranteed). Goodwin was coming off 4 years in Buffalo where he had 780yds and 6 TDs. Perriman has produced 916yds and 5 TDs in his 4 seasons where he lost one to injury. The difference is Perriman was a 1st round pick, Goodwin was an undrafted free agent. Perriman's perceived upside is that of a #1 WR. Goodwin's ceiling was speed guy, maybe a #2.

So if Perriman and his agent are going to take a 3 year deal you can bet it will be for more than Goodwin got.

Well only time will tell. I don't see him chasing those premiere guys - not that there are many of them out there anyway. It's a soft free agent class.

The article that TD posted earlier in the thread is the path I believe they will take.

I think you are certainly in a much better position than you were before but your head coach is an unknown and the owner has been a bit flaky. That could be a drawback to some. I think you're being a bit homerish with this statement. Not better than Cleveland or New England? Take NE out of the equation, I don't think a free agent would look at Cleveland and think it's a better spot than Baltimore, Houston, Indy, Kansas City, LAC, LAR, Chicago, Minnesota, Green Bay, New Orleans, Seattle, SanFran.

And now you're going really overboard. They need to win before you can put them in that category. Cmon Irish. Those teams combined for 25 wins last year.

This is where you lose me. Frank Clark and Grady Jarrett could come here and shit the bed just as easily as help you win. There are no guarantees in free agency that the investment will ever produce equivalent results and I'd argue it's probably the opposite. I'd say more often than not the top players in free agency never live up to their salaries.