My daughter has been off school the last 3 days so I haven't got much done in the way of scoring out prospects or aggregating information, but I have been watching a lot of film early in the morning and late in the evenings. This class has some serious potential in a lot of different areas and, just like in drafts past, it has some players that are not getting a lot of run in the media that are likely going to be solid contributors at the next level.
There are several teams not drafting in the first round this year, which means those picks are aggregated amongst fewer teams. It'll be interesting to see how / if that changes draft plans at all, for them. Can't wait! I usually don't start looking at film earnestly until closer to the draft, so I'll just be eagerly reading until then.
One of those players is Blace Brown of Troy. There's a lot to like about his potential and if he tests well in Indy I expect to see his name start to circulate leading up to the draft as a potential riser. Sticking with the CBs, Xavier Crawford has some stickiness to him and he is solid in man/press. He's another name to watch if he tests well.
The game within the game. Oakland has the kind of capital to make bold moves. I expect them to be an early player in trade action with Mayock barking in Gruden's ear to go after a premiere pass rusher at the top. The Raiders could sit and wait, hoping that someone jumps up for an arm and forces a player down (probably what Chucky's comments about Kyler were really about) but all 3 teams ahead of them could use an attacking player on defense.
Still trying to sift through this safety class but it's starting to look top end heavy without a lot of underlying players that are going to gain traction going into the draft. Chris Johnson may be a name to remember.
There is so much high end potential in this pass rushing class that a team could dedicate the top end of their draft to just adding that element and remake their entire defensive front in 3 rounds. I believe there will be players drafted in the early portion of the 4th that would likely go a full round earlier in most drafts.
Looking at the ILBs - Joe Dineen's name was mentioned to me by a couple two people I discuss the draft with quite a bit but I just don't see it. He's a touch slow to read, a touch slow to react and doesn't possess elite athleticism. That's an almost perfect recipe to become irrelevant in the NFL at LB. David Long of West Virginia will likely end up on a roster and he should end up sticking. Possesses solid traits that transfer to the next level. Austin Robinson from Houston is one of my favorites out of this group.
The wide receiver group is another one that is going to take some time to sort through. IMO, there is close to 30 players in this class that have a legit shot of being solid NFL contributors at some level, and there is a little bit of everything that coaches are looking for. Some solid match-up nightmares, chain movers and slot demons in this class.
The tight end grouping has some talent, but I can't decide if I would prefer Caleb Wilson to drop 15 pounds to become a full time wide receiver or add 10 pounds to become a more rounded player. I need to see his combine numbers.
How do you value hip fluidity in CB's? One of the big reasons I wait until the combine to start watching film in earnest is that it usually eliminates / elevates several players from / to my tape schedule. If I see a CB who just can't turn his hips properly, unless there's something else sincerely outstanding about his game, I usually write him off. That's a major red flag for me. Conversely, if I see a guy who didn't make waves in college, but has that skill and ease of movement, I usually watch them to see if they're worth a mid-late pick based on that potential to improve their game.
It really depends on their style of play (and ultimately where they get drafted/scheme) but if I see a player that struggles to turn and loses momentum in transition then it's something that needs to be paired against the context of their game and is a definite flag. One of the problems with watching them at the combine is that the players are focused on that aspect in a sterile bubble. They're more aware of needing to make that impression so if a player looks to be doing it better at the combine than on tape, which is the better representation? But you're right about the ones that show poorly, because they know evaluators are watching specifically for that and they still can't accomplish it with ease. Typically, a DB doesn't have to do a full rotation at the hips to turn up field. A lot of the time they are changing direction on 2/3 or less of an arc out of their break so I'm more concerned with explosion out of the turn. If a player can drop back and attack in front of him with suddenness then you know he can be an asset in read/react as well as cutting off the underneath to the offense (definite positives in zone). If he can follow, turn and has a sudden step to recover when a receiver shows his hand then you know he has the physical ability to be flypaper (I need to see this in man/press corners). Another thing that can negate some of the issues with fluidity would be active feet. A flatfooted or heeled player can get caught up in the moment or beat with the double. It's one of the things that Jacksonville recognizes as an issue with Ramsey so he gets some over the top help when in man. His athletic ability makes him tough to beat, but give me a receiver that runs precise routes and can deliver a double move with deception and Jalen will get caught on those heels. Now, the pass rush the Jaguars have makes it tough for those kind of plays to develop (double moves me an extra beat in a quarterbacks typical rhythm) but it's something he can be beat on because his feet can become less active and a bit flatfooted. It's another reason why zone coverage works so well for him. He can simply drop to the zone and react to the quarterback instead of getting tied up with a receiver that can roll him back on his heels. Now put that same player on his toes with feet that are moving like a boxer and he can create suddenness by being in constant tension.
There sure is a high possibility of defensive picks ruling the 1st round. I wonder if this the part of the ebb's and flow's in the cycle we are seeing now where teams are loading up on defense to counteract the high-flying potent offenses we see in todays game. At- least that's what im seeing in some of the early mocks. I find it interesting how this draft will play out early in the 1st round... looking forward to it.
I have very little feel for what may go on in round 1 but it's still early. Free agency is going to shake some things up and I wouldn't be surprised if there were a couple high profile trades pre-draft that change the outlook (Foles (free agency or trade) and Brown come to mind).
I'm thinking that when the RB scores are done that there are going to be several borderline round 1 kind of totals but I don't believe there is going to be a player that has a number that compares nicely to some of our previous projections. Still a ways to go and it might end up different, but that's my early thoughts.
I'm working on the second round of scoring today and I'm just finishing up Dwayne Haskins. His total is probably going to end up a bit lower than I first anticipated. Daniel Jones is going to score a bit higher than he did last season, but it's still not the kind of score that a lot of people are discussing and he still feels like he is going to end up a real overreach in this draft class. Brett Rypien is going to pick up exactly where he left off last season, which is trending upward. He probably will end up higher on my board than a lot of other places. Will Grier and Tyree Jackson may be trending downward. I have to pull the loose numbers together but I thought Will would end up a bit higher at this point. Nick Fitzgerald appears to have done nothing to improve his score from last year. If he gets drafted it's purely on projection (think Hackenberg). Ryan Finley is probably hanging around a spot that will get him a mid to high second round score. He's been an interesting evaluation so far because he has some clearly transferable traits but there are consistency issues that look to be concentration related. Clayton Thorson will end up with a 3rd or 4th round score. I mentioned last year that I didn't have nearly as high of an opinion on him as most other online resources and he is confirming it for me again this year. Kyler Murray is still at a level that will likely have him end up with a top 4 all-time score. He scored extremely well in all 4 phases of accuracy, scored well in progression (not sure why I have read from multiple outlets that this is an issue with him, but I have a guess), pocket awareness/movement is high and he has a total scramble score that may end up one of the highest (if he times under 4.4 it's probably a lock).
Im seeing some putting 3 QB's ahead of Haskins, Lock, Jones and Herbert, but as you stated its early, lots can happen.
Herbert is staying in Oregon so his name will get removed from a lot of sites after they update their information. Lock was the early favorite for the top quarterback on the board going back to last year's draft and Jones has a lot of support in different places that started really early on in his time at Duke because of his physical gifts. I wouldn't be surprised to see their names shuffle around a lot before the draft and then we'll watch most of the talking heads lock onto one name and push it.
I was curious to see how you graded out Murray. I have never seen a minute of him playing and have been kind of sitting out on him until he reports to the combine, gets measured and shows he isn't just trying to work over the A's for a bigger guarantee. If the rumors are true and he's really 5'10 and 180 pounds... that is scary small for a QB. That's me and I sure as hell don't want these monsters knocking me on my ass...
