Looking Forward to the 2019 AFC North

One other thing that should be mentioned in regards to the Browns receivers as an entire unit, is how much they've improved in the second half of the season (A.K.A. - The Freddie era). Browns receivers drop rate in weeks 1-8 was a frightening 8.1%....In weeks 9-15 the drop rate has improved dramatically to 4.3%....

 

I think we're conflating 2018 results with 2019 projections again.

The Browns' trajectory from mid-20s to #2 overall happened in the span of six games. That's just how impressive those six games have been. There's currently a groundswell of support for keeping Freddie Kitchens in the building, and his promotion to coordinator is what's fueling this development.

 

We gotta figure out what to call this eight-game stretch.

Post-Hue Constructionism? Freddie-Era? "The Switch"? Historians will look back on this time in 15 years, after the mot prolific Super Bowl run in the history of the sport and try to find a name for it... might as well get the ball rolling.

 

I saw a post after the Browns/Broncos game showing that Cleveland started (I believe) eight first round picks while the Broncos started seven undrafted free agents. Because of the manner in which the Browns did this rebuild and have set themselves up, they won't have to rely on the undrafted free agents like some of the other teams - at least not until 2022 when all the major rookie contracts are up.

We have five first round picks alone that we drafted in 2017 and 2018 that are major contributors to the team.

#ThanksSashi

 

I think those 6 games have been great for the development of the team and certainly awesome for the fan base but I think it's also important to keep things in perspective. In those 6 games the Browns wins came against:

Carolina 6-8
Denver 6-8
Cincinnati 6-8
Atlanta 5-9

The only two winning teams they faced produced losses and in those two games Mayfield had 3 TDs vs. 4 INTs. Kitchens has done a better job than Haley presumably (Haley faced much tougher opponents than Kitchens) but it's still very early. Let's see how he does against the Ravens in two weeks.

 

Is Cam Jordan right?

At first, I thought it was a ludicrous thing to say - mostly because I am in the camp of Ben is a likely future HOF player and Eli Manning hasn't been all that great. But...

 

In other words, if the Browns were actually improved due to a change at OC, they beat the teams they should have beat?

 

Haley SOS: 59-51-2 (0.527)
Kitchens SOS: 58-53-1 (0.518)

In the two losses against winning teams (LAC, PIT) with Haley, Mayfield went 44 of 82 (53.7%), 418 yards (209 YPG), 3 TD (3.7%), 3 INT (3.7%), and posted a 65.0 QB rating.

In the two losses against winning teams (KAN, HOU) with Kitchens, Mayfield went 58 of 85 (68.2%), 694 yards (347 YPG), 3 TD (3.5%), 4 INT (4.7%), and posted an 85.1 QB rating.

PIT&LAC pass defense this season allowing: 64.4% completion, 231.0 YPG, 1.7 TDpG (4.8%), 0.7 INTpG (1.9%), and a QB rating of 91.2. Based on that, Baker/Haley were -10.7 completion percentage, -22.2 YPG, -1.2 TD%, +1.0 INT%, and -26.2 QB rating.

KAN&HOU pass defense this season allowing: 64.4% completion, 270.4 YPG, 2.0 TDpG (4.7%), 1.0 INTpG (2.4%), and a QB rating of 90.4. Based on that, Baker/Kitchens were +3.8 completion percentage, +76.6 YPG, -1.2 TD%, -3.7 INT%, and -5.3 QB rating.

Pretty obvious that despite tougher competition, Kitchens and Mayfield vastly outperformed Haley and Mayfield numbers.

 

^^^^^
Looking a bit deeper...

PIT&LAC: Browns defense surrendered 870 net yards, 49 first downs, and 71 points (35.5 PPG). Turnovers generated by the defense in those two games: 3.

KAN&HOU: Browns defense surrendered 883 net yards, 52 first downs, and 66 points (33.0 PPG). Turnovers generated by the defense in those two games: 1.

... could have had something to do with the win/loss record as well.

 

I would think that all the talking about the SOS would be moot when comparing how the two QBs fared against their own division. Who cares if a guy faced lesser talent these are still professionals. You cant just say that every team he played is bad and his numbers are inflated. It's not like Baker magically had a game against Middle Tennessee State thrown in there.

 

Is it a change in the OC or the HC? Kitchens didn't make the defense better.

 

I strongly believe it was the change in OC. Kitchens' offense stays on the field longer giving the same defense with the same DC more time to rest on the sideline. In the last 6 games, the defense isn't nearly as gassed in the 4th quarter.

 

Haley faced 4 opponents with winning records, lost them all but one against the Ravens and tied the Steelers... Kitchens faced 2 opponents with winning records, lost them both, have a chance to redeem himself against those same Ravens week 17.

Haley faced 3 opponents with losing records, won 1, lost 2... Kitchens faced 4 opponents with losing records, won ALL 4.

Haley's loser opponents:
NY Jets 4-10 W
Oakland 3-11 L
Buccaneers 5-9 L

What's your point exactly? The Steelers 8 wins came from:
Buccaneers 5-9
Falcons 5-9
Bengals 6-8
Browns 6-7-1
Ravens 8-6
Panthers 6-8
Jaguars 4-10
Patriots 9-5

The Steelers have 2 wins against teams with a winning record, they are 2-3 against teams with a winning record on the year.
The Browns have 1 win and 1 tie against teams with a winning record, they are 1-1-5 against teams with a winning record.

Also goes to show, the Browns had a harder schedule than the Steelers...but are close to flipping the script.

Is your point the Browns are really close to over taking the Steelers? I would have to agree with that then...

 

The Raiders 3-13 mark certainly helps the cause if you're going to group them altogether. When I looked at the opponents I saw Baltimore, Pittsburgh and St. Louis. Again, a lot of this could be answered if Baker / Kitchens perform well against Baltimore in 9 days.

Not a fan of stats sometime. They really don't tell the story. You seem to be indicating Mayfield played better against the Chiefs and Texans because of yardage and QB rating (greatly effected by YPA). And we both saw the same thing against the Texans. Mayfield threw 3 first half INTs, scored 0 points and went into the 2nd half trailing 23-0. He then proceeded to chuck it 30x the second half and rack up a bunch of yardage (but still only scored 13 points). The opposition threw it 9x in the second half with the big lead giving Baker more possession time.

Lots of stats but not the most basic stat? In 5 starts (the first of Baker's career) the combo of Haley / BM averaged 21.8 points per game. They did that against the #1 and #9 defenses. In 6 starts the combo of Haley / Kitchens averaged 23.3 points per game. The best two defenses they've faced are ranked 14th (Hou) and 16th (Car).

So they've scored 1.5 more points per game and Baker had 6 games (5 starts) under his belt when Kitchens took over. And they haven't faced the #1 defense in football.

 

My point is Haley is a proven play-caller. It's not like the guy has been garbage in his career. He had Baker for his first 5 career starts, faced better defenses and still scored nearly as many points per game. Obviously that's a little skewed with the 42 against Oakland but it's also skewed by the 12 against the NFL's best defense (Balt). Kitchens has been a little better but he should be a little better. He's played defenses that are simply not as good and Baker had 6 games under his belt.

Maybe Kitchens is the next Norv Turner or maybe you guys will be running him out of town this time next year.

 

The most significant event in the Browns' 2018 season is, without doubt, the change in coaching staff after week 8. While this change had absolutely nothing to do with the 3 other teams in the AFCN, if one put together the standings based only on these past six weeks, it would be;

1. CLE 4-2-0 Wins: ATL, CIN, CAR, DEN Loses: KC, HOU,
2. BAL 4-2-0 Wins: CIN, OAK, ATL, TB Loses: PIT, KC
3. PIT 4-3-0 Wins: BAL, CAR, JAX, NE Loses: DEN, LAC, OAK
4. CIN 1-5-0 Wins : OAK Loses: NO, BAL, CLE, DEN, LAC

Both Cleveland and Baltimore beat the teams they should have beat and lost to better teams.

I will say this about Pittsburgh. That win against the Patriots was HUGE! Too bad it was offset by that loss to the Raiders.

 

Amen.

I think anyone that knows NFL football in it's current state, knows that the Browns are on the serious uptick....I'd be willing to bet right now that the Browns get more primetime (Nat TV)games on next years schedule than any other team in the division, and the majority of "experts" will pick the Browns to win the AFCN in 2019. The reasons are obvious. We stripped it down to nothing, went through two years of hell rebuilding, loaded the team with young talent at key positions, and now the tides are turning. That's how it's supposed go when the FO is in capable hands. The Browns are the young talented exciting team that America wants to watch. Sorry Steelers, your run of division dominance is coming to an end. There's a new sheriff in town, and he's feelin dangerous.

 

No chance. But they will certainly get more than they have gotten in the past.

Again, I think you're way off here. OTWT.

You are way more talented than you have been, no doubt. But you still have holes and lack depth, like most teams.

Dorsey looks good so far. I'm excited to see what the Browns do this offseason.

 

In all fairness, this transformation started with Sashi Brown. He was a master at acquiring assets. He just lacked a bit in talent evaluation. What we're seeing now is the 2nd part of "the plan" that began in 2016. John Dorsey clearly knows how evaluate talent and is the beneficiary of the assets mostly acquired by Sashi.

 

........so I think we're on RBs and TEs for the next ranking groups.......