The Vikings play the Lions. The Packers play the Patriots. We should gain a game on 2 division rivals this week. Because... Well, we should win this damn game. We come into the game as a 10 point favorite. That is the highest favorite this week in vegas and the highest we've been favored in years. "The Bears should win this game." I said that against Miami too... Things to watch: 1) Chicago Bears -vs- Dion Sims Fuck I hate this guy. I swear I think he is playing against the team and not for it. When you look at Sims, you see an imposing player. He's 6'5" and 270. He's got some speed and some decent strength. He looks every bit the part of a dominating TE. The Bears gave him 18 million on a 3 year contract, with 10 guaranteed. We're now well into the second year where he'll make over 6.3 million and he's going to make well over that 10 M. What have we gotten in return? This year he has 2 catches for 9 yards, and the same amount of drops including a key drop in the loss to the Packers... Oh, and he fucked up our best offensive lineman, who will likely be gone for the rest of the season. I was trying to understand how a Tight End could be this bad (keeping in mind we've all lived through the Kellen Davis era.) And I found some interesting common denominators: (1) They're both from Michigan (grew up about 70 miles away from each other), (2) raised as Lions fans, and(3) went to Michigan State. Fuck them both. Advantage: I hope Sims breaks his own ankle this week. 2) Khalil Mack -vs- Jordan Mills - I really hope they sit Mack again this week and gets healthy for Detroit next week. We really don't need him. But if he plays, he'll be going up against Mills. Mills wasn't horrible when he played for the Bears. He allowed just 3 sacks in 15 games before getting injured in the Packers game in week 17. He's allowed 5 sacks this year. Advantage: If Mack plays, he'll have the advantage. But again, I hope he sits. 3) Akiem Hicks -vs- Vlad Ducasse - Vlad sucks. I remember when we picked him up in the 2015 offseason, I thought we were picking him up for camp fodder. Somehow, our Oline sucked so badly that he actually became a starter. That shsould tell you how bad the Bills offensive line is this year. Since Mack hurt his ankle, Hicks has had just 2 QB hits and zero sacks. The whole Dline in general has downgraded. I think this is the week Hicks breaks out of his funk regardless of the Mack situation. Advantage: Hicks. 4) Nathan Peterman -vs- Bears DB's - Josh Allan and Derek Anderson are out. Nathan Peterman is next man up. Peterman has a total of 81 pass attempts in his career. And in those attempts, he's thrown 9 interceptions. Let's do the math..... carry the one..... Yea, that's 1 int for every 9 attempts. If we don't have 3 interceptions this week, it's a bad week. Then again, we made Brock fucking Osweiler look like a fucking all-pro. Advantage: Bears DB's 5) LeSean McCoy/Chris Ivory -vs- Roquon Smith /Danny T - With what may be the worst back-up QB in the NFL starting this week, look for the Bills to hand the ball off +60% of the time this week. Shady is a shell of the 2x pro-bowler he once was. Last week he rushed for 13 yards - on 12 carries. The Bears boast the #3 rush defense in the NFL at 83 yards per game. We hold the Bills to 80 yards rushing and this will be a 30 point win. Advantage: Bears 6) Bills Dline -vs- Bears Oline - The Bears Oline has given up 16 sacks this year. While we've seen a lot more in years past, averaging more than 2 sacks a game is still not great. Although, I will note that many of those are on Trubisky. He's incurred at least 3 sacks when he's rolled out of the pocket and ran out of bounds before crossing the LOS. The Bills do have a very decent Dline. In fact, it's about all they have. Obviously the Bears will be without Kyle Long. I assume Kush will fill in for him at RG. Trent Murphy (DE) is out again this week with a knee injury, but even with him out, the Bills were still getting decent pressure on Tom Brady last week. Their edge rushers, (Lawson and Jerry Hughes) get a solid push on the outside and Star Lotulelei and Kyle Williams will give Daniels and Whitehair hand full on the inside. They also like to send Lorenzo Alexander on odd man rushes and he has gotten to the QB 5 times this year including 2 sacks last week against Brady. He also hit him twice. I think this is a very key match-up and unfortunately, with Long out, I do think they have the edge. Advantage: Bills Dline 7) Bears -vs- Playing down to their Opponent - Let's face it guys. while this should not be a difficult game, this is not a gimme. The Bills gave it their all last week and showed up to play the Patriots. This is the equivalent of when we played the Packers going into week 15 in Dec 2016. We had 3 wins, they were leading the division. We gave it a go and only lost by 3 (30 to 27). The Bills are ready to be done. They've scored 6 points or less 5 times this year. (Think about that.) They have the worst offense in the NFL and don't have a QB. They're in the coffin, we just need to supply the nails. All we need to do is show up. play hard, kick their asses, and get ready for the Lions at home next week. However, remember when we played the Dolphins and their team was decimated by injuries and were on a back-up QB...? Advantage: Let's hope Nagy has these guys ready to play 8) Kelvin Benjamin -vs- Kyle Fuller - I honestly think this is the only chance the Bills have to do any damage on offense. Benjamin is a mis-match for Fuller who has had some bad games. when the Bears stuff the run, and If the Bills decide, "well fuck it, let's throw", he is pretty much all they have. Even still, I think, considering who is throwing the ball, we have the edge. Advantage: Fuller 9) Nagy's O -vs- Leslie Frazier 4-3 D - Leslie Frazier.... He was an integral part of the 85 Bears. He actually lead the team in interceptions that year with 6. I think many of us forget that he busted up his knee (ACL) in the SB on a fuck-tarded trick play on a punt return and never returned to the playing field. Frazier spent 4 years under Buddy Ryan and cut his coaching teeth under Jim Johnson and Andy Red with the Eagles. Not surprisingly, he is all about pressure. He brings it from the front 4 and is not afraid to blitz. Keeping in mind he knows Reids offense, he liekly has a solid knowledge of Nagy's offense... I actually think Frazier has an advantage here. Advantage: Frazier 10) Ref Factor: This week we get Shawn Smith. He's a rookie Head ref. The only stat that I can find that maybe even matters is in his 7 games this year, 5 away teams have won. The other game was a tie (Steelers v Browns) and the one game where the home team won was last week Houston v Miami.
Bills QBs are on pace to throw 6 TDs and 26 Ints this year... Yeah, the Bears better get this fuckin done.
I'm focusing on Leonard Floyd/Aaron Lynch, Goldman, and either Bullard or RRH (whoever is starting 5 tech opposite Hicks) right now. Statistically, Buffalo is a VERY slow team running the ball in the 1st half. They take a while to get going, averaging 2.9 YPC in the 1st half and 4.4 in the 2nd half in 2018. With Peterman starting, I fully expect Shady McCoy to get a healthy dose of the ball. The Bills interior Oline, partially as Mongo has pointed out--is kind of bad. I remember Vlad "was that my guy?" Ducasse. He's still bad. John Miller, Buffalo's RG is rated above average by PFF (i know, some don't trust the site), and Russell Bodine hasn't been garbage, he's certainly not Eric Wood, their former all-pro Center who retired in May. The bills love running up the middle though, especially in the 2nd half per espn statistical splits. I expect McCoy to go a LOT a-gap or off right tackle, and a lot in space early and often. Buffalo's offensive tendencies running the ball favor a lot in-between the guards and outside their RT towards the sidelines. Goldman is going to have to suffocate Ducasse/Bodine/Miller and open up for Roquan and Trevathan. I'm feeling good about the match up. What I don't feel good about, is Buffalo's preference to run a lot off the right tackle/in between the right sidelines, where they are averaging 4.4 ypc. If Mack is sitting, Floyd and Lynch are going to have to be proficient in stuffing the outside or Hicks is going to have to frequently penetrate to stop that shit before it starts. And last I checked, Leonard Floyd is on a milk carton somewhere....... Buffalo is going to try to set up the run so Peterman doesn't well....throw to the other team. I hear he tends to do that a lot. The Jets were lost and couldn't set up the run. The bills have a far better OLine than the Jets did. It would be wonderful if Fangio mixed up coverages/moved guys a lot pre snap to confuse Peterman. Teams have done it and he just isn't good enough to check or change the play. This shouldn't be close, but if the bears are dumb/lax enough, Buffalo can easily win this game.
Not much to add but thanks for doing these again. Your point on playing down to the competition is a good one, the Bears D needs this to continue the good showing last week, and particularly need to get pressure when he does drop back. I’m also a bit worried about your point on Bills Dline vs Bears Oline, but mostly because I’m not sure how Trubs will react. Teams have had success rattling him, so if they consistently bring pressure I could see a few ints honestly. The bears should win. But this is the Bears, they could easily let the Bills score a last second FG to win in overtime or something, and it wouldn’t really be unexpected.
In 2014, the Bears opened the season at home against the EJ Manuel led Bills and were favored by 8 points. We lost on a FG in OT. That was the "Shame gets trucked" game..
I agree with just about everything you said but the Jets OLine is better than the Bills and it’s not really close. The Bills are averaging 3.7 yards per carry and have given up 29 sacks. They suck and suck bad. Jets O line isn’t great but it’s nit in that realm of suckage.
I actually wasn't trying to be funny... I and no I don't hope he gets injured. But I think him not playing is better for this team than him playing.
