Coaching in the NFL and coaching college are two different things. Different talent level...different attitudes of players...different level of pressure. You can't schedule cupcake games against opponents you know you can beat by 40 or more in the NFL. It's night and day. Saban is a coaching god....and maybe if he had better talent with the Dolphins his coaching record would have been better. Remember Bill Belichick wasn't exactly known as a genius when he was coaching an average at best Browns team in the 90s. But fast forward to the Patriots...with a really good defense and a young Tom Brady...a few years go by and he wins some titles and he's Vince Lombardi now. Saban didn't go back to college because he was over matched. He went back because he realized he made a mistake, the Dolphins weren't being ran well, and Alabama came calling. He pulled a dick move but it's easy to see why he pulled it. I won't say he definitely would or could succeed at the NFL level. Maybe he can't. I don't think two years with a poorly ran franchise proves it one way or the other though.
my point is great college coaches like spurrier, carroll, holtz and saban himself didn't do that well in the NFL.
True but he was asked to make chicken salad out of chicken shit. No one was gonna win with Dante Culpepper and his bum knee. I think the fact that Saban won 9 games with Gus "I'm gonna headbutt this wall" Frerotte and Sage Rosenfels one year is somewhat impressive.
Pete Carroll won a Superbowl. And with the Patriots he wasn't awful. Worst record he had in 3 seasons was 8-8. Never thought Spurrier was "great". I'd say he's good. His bowl record is extremely average. He had a great decade in Florida...got laughed out the NFL...and then was average at South Carolina overall. Hard to judge Holtz off on the one whole season he coached in the NFL versus the 96 years he spent as a college coach. He didn't like it...he went back.
Bill did. But not initially as a Head Coach. He was fired in 1995 after the Browns moved to Baltimore. From '96 to '99 he worked under Bill Parcells before accepting the Jets Head Coaching job in 2000, resigning after one day and becoming the Patriots Head Coach (and General Manager) the next day. The key point in that is he became HC & GM with the Patriots. As such, he then had complete control over the roster. That's something Saban never had at the NFL level. Using your two year success model, do you consider Lou Holtz to be a shitty Head Coach, as well?
Saban is great now at Bama. look deeper at his college career and it's very average much like Spurrier at SC. Both have some big bowl wins and some bowl losses. Whether they were over matched or not, both had better success in college than the NFL. Carroll was marginal in his first NFL stint. He was great in college, but had 1 player forfeit a Heisman Trophy under his reign as coach and the program in constant trouble with the NCAA. He went back to the NFL a little wiser and before the NCAA dropped the hammer on him like it did with Rick Pitino and won a SB, should've won a second one and has great success. Holtz turned ND from the Faust years to a winning program. I don't know if he could've succeeded in the NFL. Much different game. My point is Saban was not the guru savant he is now in Miami for many reasons.
So, according to your model, a Head Coach has to be good coming out of the gate in order to be great?
This, in combination with Saban's coaching style, is why he struggled, and then went to Alabama. You can't coach in the NFL the way you do in college - look at Harbaugh's timeline with San Fran and Michigan. BWW summed it up. Saban likely would have had success at the NFL level if he had the supporting pieces and environment he needed. You can very much compare him to Belichick, and see how Belichick has an unprecedented level of control and support where he is. Saban has that at Alabama. He would have never gotten that with the Dolphins.
forget Lyman. you said Saban has never been over-matched in his career. his days at MSU, first few years at LSU and his only 2 years at Miami show he was marginal at best. there's no model!!! that's what his record was. so based on that - he was marginal or even sub-par. he's the greatest college coach ever, but in his earlier days of coaching he wasn't ! Rome wasn't built in a day and Saban's coaching record is proof of that.
That's exactly my point. The other half of "greatness" is sustainability. Get good and stay good. It wouldn't surprise me at all if both Belechick and Saban have thoughts going through their heads today about things that could happen in the 2020 season. They BOTH look forward and plan accordingly.
He's 10-4 in bowl games and he's never had a sub .500 record. Didn't light the world on fire at Michigan State but certainly wasn't awful. Was really good at LSU and has been great at Bama. No one argues Saban was a guru savant at Miami. The argument is, one, he didn't have enough time and, two, the roster didn't exactly do him any favors. Vince Lombardi with Bill Walsh as his Offensive Coordinator wasn't gonna win with Gus Frerotte and Dante Culpepper on a bum knee.
yeah even in Madden they would suck, but I do think a lot of coaches get dealt shitty teams when they go to a team. they didn't draft or sign those guys, they went to that team knowing what was there. some coaches overcome the good and the bad and win. or some decide it's not for them and leave. i think your argument for Saban could be for a lot of coaches. they didn't have enough to win or have enough team control to make them win etc. that's not on Saban. whose to say if he had more control at Miami, he would win ? his prior track record didn't dictate future success in a league he never coached before. and he was 48-16 at LSU with a 3-2 bowl record and a National Championship.
His years at MSU: In the 5 years prior Saban's arrival at MSU, they never had a winning season. In fact, Saban took over a program that was finishing up an NCAA sanction imposed for recruiting violations committed by Saban's predecessor, George Perles. How did he do? From 1995 to 1999, he went 35-24-1 and took the Spartans to a bowl game 4 out of those 5 years. His 1st few years at LSU: 2000: 8-4 (Bowl Game) 2001: 10-3 SEC Chamionship (Bowl Game) 2002: 8-5 (Bowl Game) 2003: 13-1 SEC Chamionship BCS National Chamionship 2004: 9-3 (Bowl Game) Ya, he was definately marginal / sub-par at both those schools.
oh really Lyman ? 1995 Michigan State 12 6 5 1 .542 7.68 9.27 Independence Bowl-L 1996 Michigan State 12 6 6 0 .500 8.66 5.16 Sun Bowl-L 1997 Michigan State 12 7 5 0 .583 9.47 4.05 25 11 Aloha Bowl-L 1998 Michigan State 12 6 6 0 .500 8.13 5.80 23 23 1999 Michigan State 11 9 2 0 .818 14.95 7.03 he went to 3 bowl games, not 4 and lost all 3. his bowl record at LSU was 3-2 and was 48-16. ok fine he wasn't marginal or sub-par, but 35-24-1 or 48-16 isn't even close to what he did in his first 5 yrs at Alabama. like i said his overall record was a slow build towards being the greatest college coach ever. it wasn't an overnight success. you want to squabble over records versus what is marginal have at it. he was a .500 coach at MSU till his last year. he had a fair record at Miami regardless of the circumstances of the team or lack of control.
In January of 2000, the MSU Spartans beat the Florida Gators in the Citrus Bowl. That was based off of the 1999 record of 10-2.
for some reason his coaching record doesn't state that bc he left before the bowl game and the new coach won the bowl game, but yes, i see now it's 4. my apologies. sportsreference.com has it at 3 fyi. i think we took up enough wasted space on the NFL thread about Nick SAban for one day. lol.
Almost done. It looks as if you, at least, agree that he was an "above average" coach at LSU and Bama. Right? That leaves only MSU as being suspect on his resume. (He was 12-2 in his one year at Toledo prior to MSU. That's what got him the job at MSU.) Now, keep in mind that MSU was coming off of NCAA sanctions when he arrived. An NCAA sanction is like an STD when recruiting players. Blue chip high school players were avoiding MSU like the plague when he arrived and he STILL posted at least .500 seasons in all 5 years at MSU and took them to a bowl game in his first 3 years there (plus the Citrus Bowl after the 5th). Bowl games are what draw blue chip players to a program as they (bowl games) increase a player's exposure to NFL scouts. To put MSU in three straight bowl game after 5 losing seasons and an NCAA sanction tells me the guy knew how to coach. He probably didn't start out with the best talent but got the most out of the talent he had.