The Bills: I don't think anyone, anywhere is going to argue a throw that travels over 30 yards in the NFL is "one of the easiest throws you're going to get". And yes at 30 yards in the air, it still hit the guy in stride on his back shoulder, albeit slightly low. Regardless, it hit him in the pads, the ball should have been caught. I don't think you can just "ignore" the other things going on here. If the ball is in the player's chest on this play, there is a better than average chance the defender picks the ball off. For one, the receiver was moving backwards, not come back for the ball, traveling over 2 yards backwards in a backpedal as the ball was delivered, as well as moving away from the spot the ball was delivered to. This was more about poor execution from the receiver than anything the QB did on this play. Really the only thing you can decipher from the pass is that it wasn't in a spot where a defender could get to it. *** So you point to 2 plays out of 13 in the Bills game, and neither really show any proof of inaccuracy. ___________________________________________________________________________________________ The Giants: Thankfully!! It was well defended and if he didn't get rid of it when he did, he would have taken a sack. Dirt Ball? I'm not sure you understand...this was a completion. 27 yards through the air, it was at the point that the receiver needed to be in order to catch the ball on the run.What you can see on the replay is that the receiver is falling backwards as he catches the ball, so it could just as easily be a poor route fading backwards, rather than what you are saying as a "dirt ball". Had the receiver cut the route properly, he may have been able to catch the ball without going to the ground and taken it further up field. This was a similar throw to the TD he threw to Callaway in the 4thQ. I think you need to react to the receivers a little better if you are going to question accuracy though. It is a crossing route..there was no one in front of the receiver requiring the fade on the route, thus, the QB would be throwing to a spot across from the route. He wouldn't adjust to a fade based on defensive personnel on this particular play. This one is on the receiver. Throw away ball IN the red zone. I'm not so sure the defender hit his arm, but he most definitely felt the impending defender had closed in and the ball needed to be GONE, still in the pocket the ball needed to be in a spot that was away from harm of being intercepted, yet close enough to a receiver to avoid grounding. Where else, would you want this particular ball to go? It is a wide enough angle to read the field pretty clearly, I can't find a better spot. Every receiver was well defended. There wasn't anywhere else to go that he could avoid intentional grounding, and/or avoid a high percentage chance for a defender to grab a pick. Believe me, we watched enough red zone turnovers last year that I will be overly joyed with this outcome, compared to the previous. **Honestly, it's the first example that I can say there is an argument to be made. Like you said, with a quick hitter, it could have been communication, but it very well could have been an accuracy issue as well. Again, I'm not sure that you understand the definition of "dirt ball". A dirt ball is one that is thrown short of the receiver without any need for that. Generally it is an uncatchable ball thrown short of the target. This ball wasn't thrown short, it was thrown too far in front of him. Regardless, it is the 2nd example you have given as to a ball that was not on pinpoint target... There are two things at work here, I will not defend the placement, but... 1) He has a defender pulling on his plant leg and 2) the receiver had two defenders within striking distance. The ball was at a point where neither defender could make a play on the ball...and oh yeah... It was a completion!! Why are you pointing to completed balls to make your point? If you are going to discuss completions, then we should point out every "pinpoint" accurate throw that was made in these two games, there were quite a few of those as well. There were throws that only the top 10% of NFL QBs can make consistently. I believe Callaway ran the wrong route..But I can't say for a certainty. What I do know is that Callaway has had a lot more issues in camp with the correct route, than Mayfield has been called out for throwing to the wrong spot...I have to give him the benefit of the doubt with the information we do know from training camp. I don't know if you are just checking to see if we are paying attention or what? The pocket collapses and he makes an attempt...The defender plays it extremely well, KNOCKING the ball out of the air. It wasn't a) thrown behind the receiver or b) hit the defender in the helmet. If he had not timed this perfectly, it would have hit the receiver square in the hands...Great defensive play. I don't know what else to say except....LOL....Again, was it pinpoint? No, but not everything is pinpoint on 100% of every throw by an accurate QB. It was a completion. Again, we are talking about a receiver that will not make ANY 53 man roster. Was it that the throw wasn't where it was supposed to be, or a receiver who can't run a proper route well enough to make a roster? Regardless, this is extremely nitpicky when questioning a QBs accuracy. It isn't something that is consistent, or hasn't been in the two games we have watched. You might want to take a breath before throwing out insults. If you want to break down game film...let's break down game film. But you might want to sharpen your skills before doing so. This exercise didn't help your case in the "I'm an expert and you are all stupid" department. I'm not defending these statements, although I do think you took them a little out of context from a fan who is extremely excited about the first pick of our draft. It's fairly obvious no one can claim he is one of the most accurate QBs in the NFL, when he hasn't played a down in a regular season game...However, from the two attachments YOU PROVIDED, the case is actually closer to having footing than it was before you posted it. All you posted about was the plays, you felt, provided an excuse to call him inaccurate. You pointed to what, 2 plays, and showed what accuracy actually looks like. Truth is, if you watch both closely, there are a helluva lot of examples of what would draw TD to the conclusion that he did...
Its almost as if this coincides with Megatron retiring and their offense not being predicated on deep 50/50 balls
Key Word: Almost Stafford's best season was 2015 (67.2% completion rate). His number one target was Calvin Johnson (149 targets).
I don't follow other teams enough, it just seemed like a match. Good call. I saw a convo last week sometime where an NFL guy was saying Stafford doesn't get enough run, and is likely a HOFer.
You were partially correct. Stafford did get a new OC in 2015 - Jim Bob Cooter. Coaching makes a difference, even for 6 year veteran QBs.
In response to Irish: for the sake of not continuing an argument I was directed away from, I'll leave this. I do want to make sure I apologize to anyone who took offense to my prior posting - I should not have let the conversation get to the point it did, and I regret the way I handled myself. I stand by my positions, but not the way I went about them. Irish, we're looking at different things. I don't even have time at work right now to read your full analysis of each, but I fundamentally disagree with what I have read. It may be that we're watching the same thing through very different lenses, and I would wager to say that that should be expected. I take sincere objection to the claim that I took anyone out of context - I did no such thing. I will continue to wish Mayfield and the Browns the best of luck, and think highly of him, but take exception to claims that are well beyond any reasonable station.
Honestly Irish, it doesn't need to be defended, because I never said that. That was just the troll being the troll. ...I just mentioned three current NFL QB's that I thought were very accurate (Brady, Brees, Rivers), and stated; "I don't know for sure if they would beat Mayfield in an accuracy competition of some sort."....dbaglinebasstroll5 just took that and ran with it, claiming I said Baker Mayfield is the most accurate QB in the NFL...He did that troll bullshit on like 9 posts in a row. He just twists things around and takes things out of context. He takes bits of what you say, then interjects his own words and thoughts into it (usually taking it off the deep end) and then he tries to re-attach it to the original poster. All the while just blasting away with insult after personal insult.... It's a fuckin joke. Read the last few pages closely and you'll see exactly what I mean.
1. It was 4%. 2. You're comparing Baker Mayfield's completion percentage at Texas Tech (under Kliff Kingsbury) to Baker Mayfield's completion percentage at Oklahoma (under Lincoln Riley), after sitting out a required season by NCAA, and pointing to newly-hired Lincoln Riley as the reason for the change. That's a pretty big reach, pal. Stafford was also exceptionally young. He was a 58% passer in high school and went from 52.7 as a true freshman to 61.4 as a junior. His first season with a team coming off 0-16, he completed 53.3 percent through 10 games. His next season, also cut short due to injury, he completed 59.4. But let's look at that claim "and the last three years 65, 65, and 67"... Stafford's completion percentage jumped from 60.3 to 67.2 between 2014 and 2015. How? The Lions fired their offensive coordinator seven games into the 2015 season and replaced him with Jim Bob Cooter, who still has the job. The Lions started 1-6, and Stafford personally completed 65.0 percent of his throws and had a 86.8 QB rating. After JBC took over, his completion percentage jumped four points to 69.0 with his QB rating soaring to 105.1. Since taking over the coordinator spot, Stafford has completed 66.3 percent of his throws and boasts a 98.2 QB rating - career highs. To borrow your phrase, that might explain why the instant Lincoln Riley Jim Bob Cooter got to Oklahoma Detroit's OC position Baker Mayfield's Matt Stafford's completion percentage jumped... Since Stafford was drafted (2009), the NFL's average completion rate has climbed from 60.9 to 62.1 as the game favors offenses and coordinators borrow more and more from college playbooks which allow for easier completions for quarterbacks. This holds up when you examine the climb for the top QBs by percentage. The top 10 most accurate QBs in 2009 combined for 66.5 overall whereas the same top 10 in 2017 were 66.9, indicating - at least to me - that the bottom of the league climbed overall over this time.
For the record, I don't disagree with you that accuracy can be improved but we're talking about (or at least, I think we're talking about) things like personnel, mechanics, system, coaches, etc. versus natural throwing accuracy. Matt Ryan was a 59.9 percent passer in college but is a 64.9 passer in the NFL. That's a similar +5 point jump (like Stafford, 57.1 to 62.0). However, that +5 didn't happen overnight. Even Brees, the most accurate passer in the NFL today, completed 61.1 in college and started 62.2 through five seasons at San Diego. That jumped to 68.1 since signing with the Saints.
I don't think so. I think Riley is in the McVay mold - takes even the most talented guy, cleans him up, installs a system that matches his strengths and makes him even better. Put Josh Allen in Oklahoma last year and he's a 65% passer. Baker just didn't have as far to go as other prospects so the jump was minimal. Goff jumped 7.5 percentage points last year (54.6 to 62.1). He'll probably jump to 65% this year. I don't disagree. Good coaching goes a long way. Again, I don't disagree. Scheme makes a big difference, along with coaching. Jim Bob had an instant impact on Stafford. Jordan Palmer had an instant impact on Josh Allen.
Completely agree but then you also have to work backwards from that assessment and acknowledge that some of these prospects were victims of a lack of personnel, mechanics, system, coaches, etc. and were possibly incorrectly labeled as inaccurate throwers.
There's also different types of inaccuracy. There's inaccuracy through inconsistency. There's inaccuracy through body control. There's inaccuracy through slow reaction time. There's inaccuracy due to lack of understanding the offense. There's inaccuracy due to failing to anticipate properly. And then there's inaccuracy due to the one issue that can't be coached - simply being an inaccurate thrower. That's why statistics are only part of the evaluating process and can be extremely misleading in some situations.
Which was my point that they were taken out of context.... I knew what you meant. Don't worry, he takes exception to me making the point they were out of context as well. As far as film breakdown...He also thinks we are seeing things through different lenses. That is the clear lens (me) and cloudy lens (him). Many of his examples were not well thought out and were misrepresented. I tried to give a more precise analysis and if anyone else disagrees with my thoughts on each of the examples, by all means, I am willing to listen to their thoughts. Just listing times and stating things like dirt ball, doesn't make for a very good analysis. Stating a ball was thrown so far behind it's target that it hit the defender in the helmet, when in fact of you are closely watching instead of looking for excerpts to make a point, you would see the defender knocked the ball away last second, on a ball that was going directly for the hands of the receiver. Not even close to good analysis. I'm looking forward to his rebuttal...
All I ask is in the future, make sure you have the time to offer a reasonable analysis of your findings. Quoting a timeline and offering very little in the explanations in hopes that we won't actually follow up on them isn't a way to earn respect around here, though I think you care little about getting respect. As for Mayfield's accuracy question, it is one that won't be answered in 2018, we are arguing a moot point. What he does have on film though, shows a much stronger argument that he IS one of the more accurate passers, rather than your side of the argument. You might want to wait until (if) you get more (stronger) evidence before you speak on it in the future.
See above, completion percentage and stats do not necessarily reflect accuracy. Don't look at a stat sheet and expect to know what a player is/isn't doing. Baker Mayfield looks very good after two preseason games against extremely vanilla defenses.
lol! smh....Seriously? You're not really gonna judge his accuracy on his first 40 snaps of his NFL career and base it off completion percentage, while he's out there throwing to the 3rd and 4th stringers?
