As far as 2017 goes, I always reference the guy we NEVER should have released, Josh McCown. I've said many times that we could have won 4 to 7 games with McCown under center last year. But instead, the NY Jets fell into that category, and the Browns had an infamous season. That decision more than any other probably led to Sashi's firing....I would agree that 10 does seem overly optimistic, but it's all history. History this team needs to put in the rear view mirror. I like the confidence that seems to be coming out of Berea in bunches....Even though the Browns haven't had the opportunity to prove it on the scoreboard, it feels like the team is coming together.
I don't think you're way off base in your logic....I just don't see Taylor as a QB that makes an 0-16 team into a 10-6 team.
Well, we won't be able to know that. But we can see if he helps turn around an 0-16 team into a 9-7 one this coming season. My money's on "yes".
According to ESPN and using QB Rating, Kizer was 32, and Taylor was 16th. However for this argument, I am taking Kizer's season as a per game avg, against the avg of the league's per game avg. The difference per game: 3 completions 1 less attempt 25 yds per game .6 more td per .5 less INT The completion % is just shy of 9 whole points. I will admit looking at it this way it doesn't look like a lot, but 2 td's every 3 games and 1 less INT over 2, that alone swings close games. We will never really know and that is the "fun" part of these boards. You don't know how a different QB on the same team would make the games flow or how they would extend drives (resting the D), or wouldn't make bonehead redzone decisions or if he would decide not to call his own number from the 5 with time running out and leave points on the board. Its all speculation. Whether debating if it would be worth 4 games or 6 games, or who played where with what garbage roster(s), we can all basically agree that this will finally be the turnaround we have been waiting for.
PIT: -3 margin, 0 TO differential @BAL: -14 margin, -3 TO differential @IND: -3 margin, -2 TO differential CIN: -24 margin, 0 TO differential NYJ: -3 margin, -2 TO differential @HOU: -16 margin, -2 TO differential TEN: -3 margin, -2 TO differential MIN: -17 margin, -1 TO differential @DET: -14 margin, -1 TO differential JAX: -12 margin, -4 TO differential @CIN: -14 margin, 0 TO differential @LAC: -9 margin, -2 TO differential GNB: -6 margin, -2 TO differential BAL: -17 margin, -4 TO differential @CHI: -17 margin, -3 TO differential @PIT: -4 margin, 0 TO differential With a point margin of -9 or less (7 games), the Browns had a -10 turnover differential (-1.42 per game). With a point margin of -10 or more (9 games), the Browns had a -18 turnover differential (2.00 per game). The Browns did not "win" a turnover differential in any game. The Browns broke even in turnover differential in four games - twice against Pittsburgh and twice against Cincinnati. The losses to Pittsburgh were decided by a -7 margin (-3.5 per game). The losses to Cincinnati were decided by a -38 margin (-19.0 per game). May not be safe to assume, but I think the case can be made that in those five (removing the Pittsburgh games where they tied) losses where the Browns lost the turnover differential, a competent QB not turning the football over could have led to wins. That's five right off the rip. Toss in Jacksonville and Baltimore, where the margin/differential was a staggering -3.0 and -4.25 per turnover and the case can be made that those would have been winnable as well. The Jacksonville especially since one of the late turnovers resulted in a strip sack returned for a touchdown - inflating the margin. So 5-7 wins with competent quarterback play, to say nothing of the change in play-calling, game design, etc. you get with a better talent at that spot and I have a hard time seeing were more wins would have been a stretch.
I liked McCown a lot, but he was still 1-10 in his time with Cleveland. I think it the major difference is scheme fit between Cleveland (2016) and New York (2017). With the Browns, he was running Hue Jackson's atrocious offense, consisting of throwing downfield exclusively (averaged intended air yards for 2016 = 10.4 versus 7.6 in 2017) and not having reliable receivers to throw to (1.10 average yards past first down marker thrown in 2016 versus -1.3 in 2017 - implying a trust of the receiver to make a play). The prospect of Josh McCown playing with Josh Gordon in Hue's aggressively vertical offense would have been intriguing, though...
THANK YOU SASHI!! As hard as a 0-16 year was to endure, if we had won 4 games, we wouldn't have Baker Mayfield, who I truly believe is the future of this franchise. I did NOT want any of the other QBs in this draft. With 4 wins, that nets you Sam Darnold...no thanks. So, every year like the last one, I am hoping and praying...just one win at least...Well, I can for once say I am glad it didn't work out for us, because I actually think it will work out in the end with Mayfield.
How these last two pages have felt... Me: "Boy, I sure am optimistic and excited about the upcoming season. Tyrod Taylor is as good a quarterback as we've ever had and the guy learning from him should propel the franchise to the NFL's next dynasty." All the Haters:
In other AFC North news... I hope the Ravens stick to this mantra (and bum quarterback) all season. Although, it seems like a lock we'll be playing against Lamar Jackson the last week of the regular season.
Except, that isn't what you said.. What you said above, is what myself and several others have been echoing. I'm certainly not hating on you or especially the Browns, I am always optimistic, even when there shouldn't be. This year feels different, because it is different. Tyrod Taylor is a big part of that, but Matt Ryan wouldn't have got this team 10 wins last year. MAYBE Tom Brady and/or Aaron Rodgers...but, I'm not even sold on Rodgers getting us 10.
I did concede it should have been Tyrod Taylor and Todd Haley. I'm good with giving Hue Jackson the benefit of the doubt for 16 this season, but he's not getting a blank slate and the first chance we get to upgrade *coughs* Lincoln Riley *coughs* we should.
I'm just thinking that if we call 8-8 the baseline....and for every win over 8 I pay you x amount of dollars and for every win under 8 you pay me the same amount....how much would you be willing to put on that?
