Most Important Passing Stat

2013 -

Player Team L4SN
Peyton Manning DEN 179
Drew Brees NO 110
Philip Rivers SD 86
Tony Romo DAL 78
Alex Smith KC 74
Tom Brady NE 68
Andrew Luck IND 68
Russell Wilson SEA 60
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 59
Colin Kaepernick SF 54
Matt Ryan ATL 52
Matthew Stafford DET 49
Andy Dalton CIN 49
Cam Newton CAR 43
Ryan Tannehill MIA 41
Mike Glennon TB 39
Carson Palmer ARI 35
Robert Griffin III WAS 31
Joe Flacco BAL 27
Chad Henne JAX 24
Eli Manning NYG 21
Geno Smith NYJ 15

 

If this is a decent metric for quarterback command, then I see one name that is getting a lot of money that is consistently low in decision making.

 

2012 -

Player Team L4SN
Tom Brady NE 131
Aaron Rodgers GB 130
Peyton Manning DEN 102
Drew Brees NO 77
Matt Ryan ATL 75
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 69
Joe Flacco BAL 57
Tony Romo DAL 52
Matt Schaub HOU 52
Eli Manning NYG 47
Carson Palmer OAK 45
Philip Rivers SD 45
Matthew Stafford DET 44
Andy Dalton CIN 44
Josh Freeman TB 43
Sam Bradford STL 43
Cam Newton CAR 41
Andrew Luck IND 40
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 37
Christian Ponder MIN 34
Jay Cutler CHI 30
Ryan Tannehill MIA 23
Brandon Weeden CLE 22
Mark Sanchez NYJ 17

 

Does he wear purple?

 

Newton, Flacco, and Carr certainly don't come out shining on these lists, alongside the usual characters. The Matt tandem of Ryan and Stafford make their lowly appearances more than once, between high-ranking seasons, but that's expected.

Is anyone particularly surprised at these lists? I think they show that these are pretty good, simple metrics for judging a QB...

Much thanks for the work, Tim. I wasn't sure where you were going with this, at first, but given the work of applying it to recent seasons, I think it definitely shows to be effective.

 

Yep.

The problem with any metric is the variables involved, and the two biggest components with this one would be the weapons available to the passer and the line protecting him.

However, it's an interesting look at a consistent lack of good decision making from a quarterback that earned his big payday by having possibly the best stretch of solid decision making involved in a single playoff run in the history of the game.

I'm still looking at some of the trends that are inherit and he does show up in the top 10 more than once, but deciding where the baseline should lie and how many quarterbacks actually arrive at that number will give a better overall picture of where he scores compared to his contemporaries.

 

There are still some things I want to address within the metric, but it's something that I have wanted to do for the site since we first started it. We've had some conversations on the forums about it over the years but it just never evolved.

I wanted something that would focus on decision making.

I think I'm going to include this permanently for the site as QBC (Quarterback Command).

 

It would be interesting to see how a young (rookie) QB develops/regresses over time.

 

We're thinking the same thing this morning.


I'm double checking the formula that I have and seeing if the numbers are all working in tandem.

I think I have to make one adjustment but it should be a finished product by noon, and if I do I'm going to run it back for a few seasons.

You have a quarterback that was drafted sometime after 2000 that you would be interested in seeing some number for?

 

Not really.

We need to collectively scratch our heads to come up with a number (or numbers) that could be applied to your formula that would address a QB's supporting cast. ie: Receivers, sacks and running game.

 

Sacks would probably have to be replaced by pressures.

I'm not sure how to address the receiver conundrum. The QB/WR relationship is symbiotic, so the only number that we could really apply would be drops, even though they can be very subjective.

The influence of the running game is a tough one to pull stats for and apply to a quarterback's decision making. I don't see a way to utilize them that would help to clear up the image any.

 

Sacks/pressures and running game stats could be applied as an inverse influence.

For example, both QB "A" and "B" end up with the same score. But QB "A" has (statistically) a better running game than QB "B". If so, then perhaps QB "B" should be scored better than QB "A" because opposing defenses have to pay more attention to QB "A".

 

But now you are taking it back to single game metrics where the basis of this one is on total season stats.

Plus, the relationship between the running game and passing attack are also interwoven. If a defense fears the pass and plays to stop it, they open up rushing lanes that were not previously available.

I'm looking at incorporating pressure and drops, but unless I can find a clear indicator for a stat on the rushing side that would directly influence a quarterbacks decision making I won't be including any.

 

I don't know... QB "A" might still be the better QB, but leans on the run game because of a Barry Sanders type back in the backfield, but still might have better passing %'s if given the opportunity? There may be a point where it all becomes skewed and to complicated. The discernment will lie on where to make the cut-off point in stats being the 'tell all end all' factor.

 

Then use total season stats.

And, if they fear the run, wouldn't that open up the passing game?

 

Like I said, those two work hand in hand but there is no direct stat to show an influence on a quarterback's decision making.

 

I found a couple issues in the metric that I sorted out. Think we're good to go now.

Here is the 2017 CFB season -

PLAYER TEAM L4SN
Baker Mayfield, OKLA 273
Mason Rudolph, OKST 175
Riley Ferguson, MEM 151
McKenzie Milton, UCF 148
Drew Lock, MIZ 121
Nic Shimonek, TTU 121
John Wolford, WAKE 115
Mike White, WKU 114
Logan Woodside, TOL 111
Andrew Ford, UMASS 107
J.T. Barrett, OSU 102
Justice Hansen, ARKST 99
Will Grier, WVU 96
Nick Stevens, CSU 95
Trace McSorley, PSU 92
Mason Fine, UNT 88
Ben Hicks, SMU 86
Luke Falk, WSU 86
Josh Rosen, UCLA 85
Lamar Jackson, LOU 81
Sam Darnold, USC 81
Kenny Hill, TCU 78
Ryan Finley, NCST 76
Quinton Flowers, USF 75
Jarrett Stidham, AUB 74
Kurt Benkert, UVA 69
Tyler Rogers, NMSU 68
Manny Wilkins, ASU 66
Brandon Silvers, TROY 62
J'Mar Smith, LT 59
Brett Rypien, BSU 56
Chase Litton, MRSH 54
Josh Jackson, VT 53
Shane Morris, CMU 51
Malik Rosier, MIAMI 50
Conner Manning, GAST 49
Steven Montez, COLO 48
Tanner Lee, NEB 45
Ross Bowers, CAL 40
Brogan Roback, EMU 37

 

The new version can include passers with under 300 attempts.

2012 -

Player Team L4SN
Aaron Rodgers GB 180
Tom Brady NE 165
Peyton Manning DEN 155
Robert Griffin III WAS 93
Matt Ryan ATL 119
Drew Brees NO 139
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 86
Russell Wilson SEA 72
Joe Flacco BAL 70
Tony Romo DAL 90
Matt Schaub HOU 71
Eli Manning NYG 68
Philip Rivers SD 67
Andy Dalton CIN 66
Cam Newton CAR 53
Carson Palmer OAK 62
Josh Freeman TB 63
Sam Bradford STL 55
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 53
Christian Ponder MIN 41
Jay Cutler CHI 39
Matthew Stafford DET 62
Andrew Luck IND 55
Ryan Tannehill MIA 28
Michael Vick PHI 23
Brandon Weeden CLE 28
Blaine Gabbert JAX 17
Nick Foles PHI 14
Mark Sanchez NYJ 21
Jake Locker TEN 16
Chad Henne JAX 16
Matt Cassel KC 8

 

2013 -

Player Team L4SN
Peyton Manning DEN 286
Nick Foles PHI 236
Drew Brees NO 173
Josh McCown CHI 141
Philip Rivers SD 131
Tony Romo DAL 105
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 88
Tom Brady NE 86
Andy Dalton CIN 85
Matt Ryan ATL 83
Russell Wilson SEA 82
Alex Smith KC 81
Matthew Stafford DET 78
Andrew Luck IND 78
Colin Kaepernick SF 63
Carson Palmer ARI 61
Cam Newton CAR 60
Ryan Tannehill MIA 59
Aaron Rodgers GB 56
Mike Glennon TB 44
Joe Flacco BAL 41
Jay Cutler CHI 39
Robert Griffin III WAS 39
Sam Bradford STL 38
Eli Manning NYG 34
Chad Henne JAX 29
Ryan Fitzpatrick TEN 27
Jason Campbell CLE 20
E.J. Manuel BUF 19
Geno Smith NYJ 19
Matt Cassel MIN 18
Case Keenum HOU 17
Matt Schaub HOU 16
Kellen Clemens STL 14
Brandon Weeden CLE 12
Christian Ponder MIN 11
Terrelle Pryor OAK 9

 

2014 -

Player Team L4SN
Aaron Rodgers GB 243
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 158
Peyton Manning DEN 136
Tony Romo DAL 130
Tom Brady NE 129
Andrew Luck IND 126
Drew Brees NO 118
Matt Ryan ATL 100
Eli Manning NYG 96
Ryan Tannehill MIA 91
Philip Rivers SD 90
Joe Flacco BAL 84
Russell Wilson SEA 77
Alex Smith KC 75
Jay Cutler CHI 72
Matthew Stafford DET 71
Colin Kaepernick SF 54
Derek Carr OAK 50
Kyle Orton BUF 48
Andy Dalton CIN 43
Ryan Fitzpatrick HOU 43
Cam Newton CAR 41
Carson Palmer ARI 38
Teddy Bridgewater MIN 33
Mark Sanchez PHI 28
Brian Hoyer CLE 26
Geno Smith NYJ 23
Nick Foles PHI 23
Austin Davis STL 23
Blake Bortles JAX 20
Josh McCown TB 16
Drew Stanton ARI 15
Shaun Hill STL 15