Predict the wins and losses...

I'm confused why we can't do both?

Well you just suck the fun out of everything, don't ya?

I think it's debatable that the Bills and Fins are the worst two teams on our schedule. And I think it's questionable that we would need to beat them to not have the number one pick. Last season the Bears beat some playoff teams and lost to some non playoff teams. That is just kinda how the NFL goes sometimes. To pick and choose games now, in June, that teams MUST win in order to not be bottom of the barrel...is just silly.

Yes, Tyrod Taylor is so god damn awesome, right?

Playoff QB? How'd he fare in that game? 17-37 for 134 yards and a pick. Hang your hat on that.

Who did the Browns sign that suddenly put them over? Jarvis Master of the 8 yard catch Landry? Congrats on having two top four picks....sorry that they somehow still screwed that up and passed up what was probably the best two players in the damn draft. I hope for Browns fans sake that Mayfield works out.....very few fanbases in any sport deserve to see a winner more than Browns fans....but I think Mayfield is a bust. I will eat my words if and when he proves me wrong but that's where I stand at the moment. And I believe passing up first Barkley and then Chubb were epic failures.

At the current moment the Browns are a rebuilding team coming off the worst record a football franchise can possibly have. The rookies they have in camp mean nothing until they do something ON THE FIELD. No in practice...not in preseason....in games that count.

The Bills won 9 games last year...the Dolphins won 6. Those things actually happened. The Bills drafted a QB too...why is yours better than theirs? Answer...he's not. Neither is better than the other until something is prove on the field. Buffalo also added a good looking linebacker....they are probably in line to be just as average as they were last season...or maybe slightly worse. The Dolphins are probably trending down...but again they won 6 games.

The Browns won 0. Zero. None. They have the most improvement to do year over year. And they are, as of recent history, professional sports biggest dumpster fire. The Browns are a dumpster full of aborted babies that someone set on fire. That's how awful they are. So yeah....they are number 32 out of 32 teams at the moment until proven otherwise.

 

I don't get to watch much college ball, so i won't say much on the subject. But i recall Shizer(sorry i just love that nickname, SAS did well) being projected as a 1st rounder for a long time. Turns out the league got that right in the end cos he wasn't one, but one huge difference between Shizer and Allen is arm strength. Allen was just never falling like that. His arm strength is truly elite. The strongest armed QB i ever saw play for the Bears is Cutler, and Allen has even more power imo.

Gotta say i don't think your giving the Bills much credit here. They went 9-7 and one of those 7 was a game totally flushed by the HC with that inexplicable decision to start Nathan "5pick" Peterman. I've always kinda liked Tyrod actually(he somehow winds up on my FF roster EVERY year) but even i would admit its not like QB was ever a strength of the team in oh about 25years. They still ground out 9wins, thats tough to do.

I guess i just don't see the Bills as any kind of major determining factor in the Bears avoiding the worst record in the league. Showing up in their division for a change, THATS a big determining factor.

 

Careful, he's gonna snap...

 

All I did was look at the schedule and imho chose the two worst teams on paper. I combined that with the facts of a rookie coach and two system changes to determine that if you struggle with your two worst teams, more than likely you struggle with everyone.

The division is a whole other story, I would say that is a big factor for the Browns as well (and it is, obviously), but they have to worry about beating the bottom of the barrel before I start worrying about winning the division.

Nope, I took time off for an introspective look and quite frankly, it isn't worth the energy. I love the game of football, and yes, it's pretty damn obvious I love my Browns. Feeding into the negative shit I have to hear every year wears on a man, but in the end, all I can do is hope they get this thing turned around so that the negative fades away. Until that happens, it's part of the territory and well..I just had to learn to live with it.

 

In all honesty.....fuck you if you can't take a joke. That's all.

 

Ok...

 

Well the Bears have stunk for years, but I still expect them to win games in the division. Partly just cos of the rivalry aspect I guess. But also cos they're damn winnable. The Lions are a very overrated team who are also on the way down. And the Packers without Rodgers are 10pounds of shit in a 5pound bag. They were lucky as hell to beat your guys last season.

 

You have to love this guy’s passion. His team has gone 4-44 the past three seasons AND had some terrible drafts (and possibly another one) but he’s going to come here and state that OUR team might have the number one pick next season.

A team that already had a top 10 defense despite a senile half-wit as a coach, and a dwarfish imp at OC. The same team that picked the consensus top LB in the draft and has its star LB coming back from injury.

He’s either the biggest homer on the face of the earth or he’s hooked us all... the best move his team made was trading away Kizer, and thanks for trading him to GB btw. He’s awful.

Entertaining either way. Good times!

 

That's not what I said at all...In fact I clarified in a later post that if they handle those two teams (that in my opinion are the two worst on your schedule) the way they should, then an expectation of 6-10 wins is reasonable. I don't simply look at the 2017 record and base an opinion that it is expected a team should be par or better in 2018. The Bills for instance, made the playoffs in 2017 with a 9-7 record...They traded away the QB that got them to the playoffs and are replacing him with a rookie. I don't expect Josh Allen to play any where near the level of Tyrod Taylor in his rookie season. He made a lot of mistakes at the collegiate level and I expect him to personally cost them multiple games. On top of a rookie QB, they have a new OC bringing in a new offense, that happens to be Brian Daboll...whom I have seen doing this job in Cleveland....Then he has had two other stints as an OC, neither of which lasted more than one season. Needless to say, I don't expect as much out of the Buffalo offense in 2018, even though they were only ranked 29th in offense in 2017. Regressing from a 29th ranking, typically, doesn't bode well no matter how good your defense is.

My main concerns for the Bears was a coaching turnover and Mitchell Trubisky. So, for me, it could go one of two ways. A rookie HC and college OC taking over the reigns COULD bring a new concept to the Bears that helps Trubisky develop. However, my concerns is that Nagy, being a rookie himself, will take on too much offense responsibility and his HC duties will suffer. If that happens, then a regression might take place in 2018.

That's all...I either see a team that takes off like the Rams did under similar circumstances and you see 7-10 wins...or a major regression which would cost you some of the 5 wins you managed in 2017..when you start declining from 5 wins, you are in contention for the #1 overall pick....I have some experience in this world.

I wasn't referring to the Browns in any sense, because frankly, the Browns aren't on your schedule. Had they been, the two teams would likely have been them and the Bills as I do think the Dolphins, even though stagnant, are still ahead of the Browns at this point.

Again, this wasn't a conversation the Browns was a part of until another poster made them a part of it. I didn't start a conversation to talk about the Browns on a Bears board, I was discussing the Bears...

 

I think the rookie HC thing is kind overblown here.

If you take all 32 head coaches currently in the league and filter out the 5 who have yet to coach their first game....and ignore time spent as an interim coach...the average first year record for current coaches is 8-8. Not great but certainly not so bad that you would think you need to hold it against a team and factor it into their possible record.

Out of current NFL coaches the worst first year record I can see is Pat Shurmur's 4-12....and that was with the team we aren't here to talk about.

 

Compared to Fox, I expect Nagy to make this team better. Anyone else here think otherwise?

 

Plus, you have to figure that most first year coaches are there because that team had a terrible season the previous year.

So, that would mean that most first year head coaches probably improve by 2-4 wins off of the previous season. That gets us right to 8-8, which was my prediction.

 

Yeah that would take some research but I would bet a lot of money that is true more times than not. There probably aren't a lot of coaches that took over a team ready to win right away or coming off a good season.

Mike Tomlin certainly inherited a good situation. So did Dan Quinn in spite of the team being 6-10 when Mike Smith was fired....there were a ton of pieces already in place.

Most coaches certainly inherit teams that need work.

 

When the Bears hired Nagy I was a little nervous. I was on the McDanials bandwagon and luckily Pace wasn’t thinking like I was. So when Nagy got hired I was t all that familiar with his resume. After reading up on his rise to a HC job there is a lot to like.

Nagy is a rookie HC but it’s not the first time he has been part of taking over struggling team. In 2013 Nagy was on the staff that got fired by the eagles and then hired by the Chiefs. That staff headed by HC Andy Reid had immediate success turning the 2-14 Chiefs into an 11 win team in their first season. Much of that success was do to the play of newly acquired QB Alex Smith who’s QB coach was Nagy.

Now I know you can’t compare the experience level that Smith had in his first year under Reid to the experience level Trubisky has in his first year under Nagy but I am of the belief that as a QB you either have it or you don’t. If Trubisky has it there is no reason the offense cannot take huge strides. Strides that have to equate to wins. The talent around Trubisky is there the excuses are not.

Reid isn’t the only coach that Nagy worked with. If you look at Doug Pedersons rise it is very familiar to Nagy’s. As the QB coach you would think Nagy and Perderson worked closely with one another. I can’t see how that wouldn’t leave Nagy for the better.

Vic Fangio admitted this offseason that Fox let him do his thing with the defense so I don’t see why that approach would need to change. Nagy learned from one of the best how to juggle the duties of a HC that also is the lead when it comes to offense. His experience with implementing a new system with immediate success gives me some optimism that a quick turnaround is possible IF Yrubisky is the real deal.

 

I want to say more than eight wins, but eight feels like a slight reach on its own. I think eight wins would be a really big step in the right direction for a second year quarterback and a defense that has some real talent to develop.

I talked myself into eight and that's what I'm sticking with for now.

 

If we don't have multiple significant long term injuries and Trubisky improves the way we think we should....I think 8 wins is about right. 6-8 is probably realistic with any more needing to come because the Packers or Vikings regress with injuries a lot.

 

Hey @IrishDawg42 welcome to the Bears board Thanks for keeping it respectful. This isn't the easiest place to share your thoughts in but if you have thick skin you'll do fine.

@BearsWillWin stop being a jerk. I'm going to moderate the hell outta you!!

Heh.
That's a bit misleading since my powers are somewhat limited ...

 

You don’t have to reprehend BWW, he is as harmless as a toddler.

 

Hahaha....you realize how petty and childish you look by continuing to do this, yeah?

Get a life bud. Or smoke some bud and get over me. Stalking is not a good color for anyone to wear.

 

If by "moderate" you mean what I think you mean....wink wink...bring it on toots. I'll meet you in the back room and we can "moderate" each other.