Well I have had as much access to these guys as you have - which is to say almost none. So outside of watching him on draftbreakdown (some of those links are bogus too) I really can't get a 1st person view and thus spend my time listening to others who I know have been up close and personal. There's a common theme among them, this guy needs coached - well beyond what he got at Wyoming. He didn't even have a QB coach at Wyoming. So when you talk about progression you have to look at what other factors did the kid have to progress? Did he have proper coaching? Not from what I've been able to gather? Did he have talent around him to help him succeed? That's an easy answer - definite no. That team is awful. You guys talk all the time about a players surroundings. How many times did you defend Kizer using his lack of receivers? How many times have you defended Hugh because he was wearing too many hats? You think the Wyoming OC was doing everything he could do to make Josh better or do you think he was pouring most of his energy into being a coordinator? Allen showed me everything I needed on the Senior Bowl after one week with real coaching and however many weeks working with Jordan Palmer. When his feet are right the ball is there. And he can do it with fastballs or he can do it with touch. And then he can also make people miss and extend plays like Ben, a quality that is hard to come by in a guy his size. Let this guy work with Haley and a real QB coach for 6 months and you're gonna love him. And you better start getting on board with that possibility because there's a really good chance it's going to happen. And the Browns will be better for it. They'll be finally ready to contend in the AFC North.
I get it beach you like Josh Allen, that's a GREAT opinion...live it, love it, preach it. I have a different opinion on the guy, and definitely have a much HIGHER opinion on another guy. As for getting on board, I don't have to do anything until the actual draft takes place. You know me, you've been around long enough to know, whomever the Browns take, I will hope like hell they help this team win. I'm not going to continue knocking a guy because I didn't really want him pre-draft. In fact, I'm probably going to end up being the asshole that makes excuses for 3 years for why he sucks so bad and will improve.
I think therein lies the major rub. Allen flashes at times and the ability is obvious, but those flashes come from when his technique is close to proper. So, is it bad habits that can be coached out or permanent defects that he will never fully overcome? I agree with his transition into the Senior bowl and I agree that his ascension on draft boards has a lot to do with the work he has put in so far. But just how far he can go remains a vast unknown. He ultimately ended up as my QB5, but his score puts him in the same company as RGIII, Blake Bortles and DeShaun Watson. Being the 5th quarterback on the list this year is not really an indictment on a player that has a lot of upside but a lot of concerns.
All fair and then if you know he has the ability to fix it the next question for me is will he put in the work to do it. And every indication is that this kid is coachable, intelligent, a hard worker and passionate about football. And that last one is a big one for me and I only see that in two of the top 4 guys - Allen and Mayfield. I don't see it in Darnold, I don't see it in Rosen. Speaking of which why doesn't anyone seem to be concerned with Darnold's regression?
As good as he may have looked at the Senior Bowl he still couldn't hit a stationary net from 15 yards.
Dude... no real GM gets it right all the time. Some more than others, some by blind luck. Mel Kiper and the professional armchair GMs look like tools all the time. There’s no harm in the fun of trying to figure it out for ourselves as a hobby. Why the need to piss on their fun?
Check out the most successful draft prognosticators: link. 2017 Awards Mel Kiper - unranked Todd McShay - unranked Mike Mayock - t-41st
Great link, Sammy !!! I did wonder though . . . If a guy gets 2 points for matching a player to a team, how do they end up with an odd number for (M) ?
I think that number is just total matched to team. So Marino (NDT Scouting) got nine correct matches player/team last season. (9x2) + 28 = 46 total score
Huge (sarcasm) shock here... QB1, QB2, and QB3 are #1, #3, and #2 on placement percentage. Impressive numbers for Rudolph, actually (@Tim). Those surprise me a bit for a guy with an average arm and a QB scheme that provides a lot of open throws.
One of the things that stands out for me about Rudolph is the number of NFL style throws that he had to make in an offense that should have provided him with larger windows. He had less open looks this season than the year prior but he continued to improve statistically. IMO his understanding of the game and how to put himself in positions to create a positive outcome on every play has been grossly underestimated by the majority of the scouting community.
Hey, I hope you're right and I openly hope that Rudolph and Lamar Jackson are both drafted ahead of Josh Allen.
'Lamar Jackson' is one name that is picking up a lot of speed as we get nearer to the draft. I honestly believe that if he had proper representation throughout this process that he could have pushed himself into top 10 consideration. Out of curiosity - Do you still have the confidence you did a month ago that Baker will be the first pick of the draft? And since I brought up draft selection - We discussed previously about Saquon falling out of the top 4. I'd have to go back and check but I believe it was prior to the Hyde signing. At this point, I'm leaning towards agreement with you that he does indeed slide, possibly all the way to 6 or 8 (can't see him past the Bucs). With the Giants poised to either take Darnold, Chubb or a trade down (I'm thinking DEN) it opens up the door for Cleveland to move down from 4 (BUF) and gather up two more first round picks.
Tweeted this shortly after reading my prediciton, I bet... Actually, weirdly enough I do. I think there's been enough talk of Josh Allen and Sam Darnold - with so many "insiders" reporting that one or the other is the "lock" for the Browns that neither of them are. I think the first three picks - in order - will be Baker Mayfield, Josh Rosen, and Sam Darnold. Mayfield was Dorsey and McCloughan's top QB going into the process. I don't think the media hype machine of the draft cycle is going to shake two career scouts to their core about what or who to draft. Now, I will say - since I and we aren't party to these - that if Mayfield flopped in his interview, that would be the reason for him not being the pick. By all accounts, GMs are loving him in interviews, so I have to believe that wouldn't happen. Someone's going to have to love the third- or fourth-best quarterback enough to do that. I fear that if it's Allen on the clock, the Browns won't get the offers because he's already a huge risk for a team - couple that with mortgaging the future and I just don't see it happening.
I think it hinges on whether or not the Giants stay for Chubb, which of course would be impacted by what Cleveland does at #1 and whether or not the Giants get a reasonable offer. I know this will make your eyes bleed, but if Cleveland takes Allen with the first pick and the Giants take Darnold, I could still see a scenario where the Jets go Rosen and the Bills trade up for Baker (or the Jets take Baker and the Bills trade up for Rosen). If Cleveland takes Darnold and the Giants don't move down the #4 overall pick will have a lot of offers coming in.
