Q: Why are all these teams tied to the fifth-best quarterback in the class? A: To mask their true intentions at the position. Hot Take: Browns take Mayfield at #1, Bills jump the Jets to get Rosen at #2, Jets take Darnold at #3, a surprise team trades up to #10 to take Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen takes his rightful spot as the fifth QB drafted at #15 (no trade) to Arizona.
The only reason I can't get on board with this idea is because the Browns have no reason to mask their intentions with that first pick. Unless, they are going non-passer at #1 and taking an arm at #4. Something that is possible but not probable IMO.
I still maintain that that ^^^^^ is dependent on whether or not the NYG stay at #2 or trade down. The problem is, the Giants can wait until they are OTC to trade down.
New York (Jets) will take Mayfield at #3 if he's on the board. The Browns, if they want him, can't pass at #1. The deception revolves around the pick at #4 than at #1. If multiple teams, including Cleveland, are rumored to want Josh Allen but he's available at #4 (will be, he's not good), Cleveland can help the bidding process. "We wanted this guy, Buffalo was going to pony up six picks, and John Elway is sitting behind us at #5 just waiting to turn in the card with his name on it. What's he worth to you <Arizona, Miami, New England, Jacksonville>?"
Respect the thought process, but I still don't see it. At the end of the day, these GMs, coaches and owners are not going to be influenced in the slightest by Cleveland's opinion of Allen. I know that you absolutely hate the guy, and I believe there are some in the league that are in agreement with you, but there are others that see him as a rare quality talent and they will be willing to spend the capital necessary to draft him regardless of what anyone else views him as. The value of pick #4 will only be directly impacted by the 3 picks that happen in front of it. The quickest way the trade value for that selection would be devalued is if the Giants trade out of #2 to the Bills.
@Tim... FWIW, I don't see anyone trading up for Josh Allen (nor do the see the Browns taking him with either #1 or #4). I suspect he'll drop on draft day (shameless plug: latest mock right here). I think the reason these rumors fly is because teams still think they work. I'm with you... I don't think it's helping but I think it's just part of what's done this time of year. Less than 24 hours before the 2017 draft, there was very real discussion that the team was leaning towards Mitch Trubisky over Myles Garrett. The notion was "Cleveland being Cleveland", but Trubisky did end up going #2 overall and the team's interest was probably genuine. Did it have an impact on Chicago moving up one spot to draft him? I dunno... but it happened all the same.
I agree that there is a certain amount of gamesmanship in play in the lead up to the draft, but there is little to be gained by the Browns claiming that have genuine interest in Allen. That being said, you picked a really good example to back up your view on this subject. San Francisco was being connected to DeShaun Watson over Trubisky so I think the real scare for the Bears was the possibility of San Fran trading out of that pick to the Jets. It was no secret that Chicago was interested in Mitchell, so the possibility is there that the 49ers floated something to make it seem like they were willing to trade farther down the board just to force Chicago's hand. I think at this point the Browns are honestly in debate over whether or not they view Josh Allen as a true franchise quarterback.
Any chance on the smokescreen going up to try and push the G-men to move to 1 because they think Allen learning from Eli for 2 years is the best option?
My 'likes' should not be considered an explicit endorsement. But I do agree in this instance. Right now, I believe the Giants are either taking Sam Darnold, Bradley Chubb or trading down. I don't believe Josh Allen is in their crosshairs. When it comes to Josh Allen, the strongest connections available are the Browns, Jets, Bills and Cardinals.
This really reminds me of '83. All the trades and QBs taken. Remember the QB order wasn't Elway, Marino, Kelly, Todd, Blackledge and Eason. Which if there was a redraft would probably have been the order. I'm sure "WE" don't know who will and who won't succeed out of this QB class. Personally I hope they all succeed. Would definitely improve play in the NFL for years to come. IMHO
I'm starting to come around some with the idea of him playing the 5-tech. It's a position of need for the Giants and he's unquestionably the best talent available on defense to step in and make an immediate impact.
Obviously an inexact science... but if you check out other teams' draft twitter, you kind of get a general theme. Bills Twitter: If we trade up for Josh Allen, I will *literally* have a brain aneurysm. Jets Twitter: If we take Josh Allen I'm going burn my season tickets an film it. Browns Twitter: If take take Josh Allen, I will vomit blood.* *Okay, that one was mine, but still... Where are the fans who want to see Josh Allen play for their team? There *aren't* any! The only people around here who've championed Allen to the Browns are Steelers fans - of course they'd want the franchise to fail. The point is... you're not seeing fanbases clamor for Allen like they do Mayfield, Rosen, or Darnold. There's something to be said for that.
I agree with all of these..I think the Giants are willing to trade out of #2 IF Sam Darnold is not available. I also agree that the Bills could easily have something they are willing to put together with the Giants for a QB other than Sam Darnold Finally...the smoke screen... It isn't about putting a smoke screen in place 2 weeks before the draft for Sam Darnold to entice the Giants to trade up, it's about putting the doubt in their head that the Browns could be interested in someone other than Darnold. If they have inside info that Darnold is the Giants guy and they don't want Darnold, then the smoke screen is two fold in order for it to work. First they need some inside info that the Browns are interested in someone else, it doesn't matter WHO that player is. Then the week of the draft, the new info leaked to them needs to strengthen that they are dialing in on Sam Darnold, which is what I expect to happen one way or the other. Darnold will be the reported player 24-48 hours prior to the draft. So, then the Giants have to make a decision, trade with the Browns modestly or take the cache of picks being offered by the Bills. Now, this could STILL bite the Browns in the ass, because it might not be Darnold at all that they really want...buyer beware. My nightmare at this point is that the Browns move from #1 to #2 and get a 2019 2nd rounder from the Giants and the commissioner announces, with the #1 pick of the 2018 NFL Draft, the New York Giants select Baker Mayfield, QB Oklahoma.
