2018 Running Back Class

Believe me, I believe in the power of quality over quantity. Here is where my thoughts go into it though. ANY given year, you get 1 first rounder, 1 second rounder, etc...We have the #1 pick in this draft, which we will not be trading unless someone hands us the future of their franchise..I.E. 4 first rounders, possibly more. So, you are getting your future QB with that pick. The #4 pick really comes down to replace-ability and what the incoming offer is.

Say the draft goes something like:
Sam Darnold
Josh Rosen
Baker Mayfield
Browns are on the board and 3 teams want Allen...The Browns had decided a week ago that Saquon Barkley is higher rated than Bradley Chubb.

That sets up the offer evaluation: You decide the best offer on the table is from the Buffalo Bills that are offering #12, #22 and their 2019 first round draft pick. Knowing the trade is for a future QB will take a bonus offer, not the value chart. If I don't get a future first(possibly 2nd), I don't trade out.

So, you then take into account replace-ability...that would be for Saquon Barkley. Who might be available at #12 and #22 and what are your needs? Well, your top need at this point in time after the moves have been made are probably OT, CB, FS, WR, RB, LB, DE, DT in that order...Can you see players that will give you an upgrade at any of those positions and by what margin?

First off, I see Barkley as the clear top RB prospect, however, I also see clear 3 down starter ability in both Guice and Michel personally...I belive Guice WILL be available at #12 and could be available at #22, Michel should be there at #22 as well. So, replace-ability has been established for Barkley.

Personally, I believe one of Denzel Ward, Roquon Smith, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Derwin James, Tremaine Edmunds, Quentin Smith, Maurice Hurst and Calvin Ridley are all players that could help transcend this team...If, as assumed, Josh Allen is chosen at #4, then there are only 7 picks before you choose your next one...there are 8 players on my list that I feel so highly on that I STILL wouldn't consider one of the other two RBs at #12..

So, now I have a player designated to improve one of my needs and will more than likely still be able to fill that RB position 10 picks later.

Then, I give my team the opportunity to continue, not only growth, but stability with another first rounder in 2019.


Contracts don't even enter my mind. How GREAT of a problem would it be to have every first round pick turn into an All Pro? History tells us that probably won't happen. Even if it does, if you can continue to add future picks, the hope is for every team to be able to fill in for players that end up leaving via free agency.

My only problem in 2018 and the near future is that I have a lot of holes to fill with good football players. You can sort out salary cap later, when/if it becomes an issue.

Sorry, for the long post, it's the best way I knew how to explain MY WAY of thinking on the subject of trading down.

 

Thanks for the breakdown. I imagine something like this requires an in depth explanation.