I've been watching a lot of NFL prograams, and saw The Herd with Joe Klatt, reviewing the RB class, and they made the point I've been mulling for a few weeks: Saquon Barkely may not be "the guy". Klatt's stats analysis was very enlightening for me. I've been trying to put into words why I am not a Barkley fan, and he made a great case for not holding him above the competition: he had more plays under 4 yards than all the other top 6 guys in the draft, and fewer runs over 10 yards than the other 6 guys too. A lot of pretty non productive runs. Yes he had some spectacular big plays, and yes he is an athletic freak, but his production is hit or miss, with too many misses IMO, and it seems in reality. I've not been a fan of taking him at #4, and this solidfied it for me. I guess you could say it's "one man's opinion" but for me it coincided with my own, so I'm using it say no to Barkley. That and I just don't like taking an RB who may play healthy for less than 4 years, so high. There are some very good RBs in this draft, and at worst, the drop off is marginal IMO. OK target propped up, take your shots.
I've got a Chubby for the number 4 pick. A combo of Chubb and Garret with a fresh Ogbah rotating in will do wonders for our secondary as it starts to gel. Freeny and Mathis made some pretty average corners look really good in their heyday.
Interesting...Do you have any RB's that you'd like to see us target later? I feel like we are going to trade down from #4. Most likely with Buffalo, but I wouldn't count New England out...At #12, I think Vita Vea, Maurice Hurst and Da'ron Payne are strong possibilities. We created a hole when we dealt Shelton....Though I don't think we'd hesitate if Ward or Edmunds slipped to that spot. I'd love to be a fly on the wall in Berea...This draft is going to be epic. I wish I knew the plan.
We will agree to disagree on the reasoning behind some of the statistics you are talking about here. Georgia and LSU had much better offensive lines and played in the SEC, vs. Barkley playing behind one of the worst lines in college football and playing in the B1G. The combination of a bad line and great defenses are conducive to getting negative running plays, no matter how good of a running back you are. It's how you can be utilized in other ways that makes you special. PSU was able to use him in the passing game without missing too much of a beat. I have absolutely no doubt that he is head and shoulders above his peers in this class. Now, that being said, the rest of your post I agree with 100%. A RB at #4 is not going to effect this team as much as Dvl's guy Chubb would, imho. I agree that Chubb and Garrett, with Ogbah, Chris Smith and Nassib rotating in would give this team an enormous advantage on defense that would match some of the great defenses in the league. Keeping that group together, while adding an interior lineman or two would go a long way in making that a major part of a Super Bowl run in 2 years. The drop off from Chubb to what will be available even 15-20 spots below him are too much of a gap. If we had an opportunity for Chubb and pass, you might as well move on to another position. Although, I have a similar feeling about Hurst and the impact he could have on the defense...I don't think there are any other guus that would impact the defense later on in the draft...but, I think a trade down would be relevant if that was your line of thinking. Chubb, you have to stay at #4 to take. The thing is, we could move around the boards pretty easily if we wanted to take a leap in 2018....I will elaborate in another post, so this one doesn't get too long..
How do we get the biggest bang for our buck in this draft? We have so many options that it is hard to cover all of them... Here is one suggestion: #1 overall, take your Consensus Top Rated QB (whoever that is) #4 I personally have narrowed it down to (3) options in this order Chubb, Hurst, Fitzpatrick BUT...If we aren't taking Chubb, I would prefer option number 4, which is a trade down. The most obvious would be with the Bills if the Giants do not make a trade...netting us #12, #22 and #56 I see the draft going this way in the top ten, Four QBs will be gone as well as, Bradley Chubb, Saquon Barkley and Quentin Nelson. These 3 are franchise players and will be gone in the top 9 picks. So, if you decide to trade down, figure you are out of the running for any of them and what you get in return for #4 better add up to more than one of them. In no particular order, this is where I personally have the next group of players. I say no particular order because, frankly they have such different skill sets that each one brings something individually that would immediately upgrade this team. (please note, I do not include players that I don't think fit our schemes/needs) Next tier group Maurice Hurst DT Minkah Fitzpatrick S/CB Derwin James FS Roquon Smith MLB Tremaine Edmunds LB, I believe can play Sam or Will Denzel Ward CB Jaire Alexander CB Derrius Guice RB Mike Hughes CB Calvin Ridley WR Coutland Sutton WR Next tier group Sony Michel RB Connor Williams OT Da'Ron Payne DT Josh Jackson CB Mike McGlinchey OT Leighton Vander Esch SLB (can play any of the 3 really, but I would think he is most effective in the Sam role) Ronald Jones II Then it gets interesting, with the seven players off the board that I am fairly certain of...that leaves 5 players gone before the Browns would pick at Buffalo's first traded pick. #12 I could easily see one of the safeties falling to us here and would immediately take either Fitzpatrick or James, which ever is available here #22, trade up with Green Bay giving them #22, #175 and Corey Coleman #14 after trade up, get a second player from tier 2 group, shore up your LB corps if either of them drop (but I think they both go before this pick), get the D-Line upgrade needed to go to the next level..Maurice Hurst is the pick here. #35 get ready for another trade up here into the first round..Package #35, #64, #150 and #205 to move up to Seattle's spot, who needs multiple picks in their own rebuild. They would gain 3 draft picks, while losing a few points on the value chart..Grab the best remaining CB of the group or Vander Esch. #18 Vander Esch is my pick here, since we added (3) CBs via trade/free agency #33 yep, you guessed it, we make one last small trade up to get my personal second choice at RB..Trade #33 and #114 to the Vikings for #30 and get Sony Michel You only have one remaining pick with the left over Bills pick #56 My hope is that one of the top WRs in DJ Moore, Anthony Miller, Christian Kirk, James Washington or at the very least, a flyer on DJ Chark Leaving you with a draft of: #1 Top consensus QB #12 Derwin James FS #14 Maurice Hurst DT #18 Leighton Vander Esch LB #30 Sony Michel RB #56 Anthony Miller WR **NO mid-late round prospects from this draft class.... So, the trade down would make all that happen...compared to QB, Chubb, a single trade up into the late teens/20s for RB/LB/CB and another 3rd tier player at #33 or #35, along with mid-late round prospects added to the roster. Say: #1 Top Consensus QB #4 Bradley Chubb DE #18 Leighton Vander Esch LB (trading #35, #64, #114 and #205) #33 Ronald Jones II/Nick Chubb RB #150 Marcus Allen S #175 Mike Ramsey DT ***Still have Corey Coleman Two pretty different scenarios
I think you could include anyone we visited with, but I agree with your list. Two names I would add. We had a private workout with Vita Vea....And reports are that Browns personnel were very interested in Isaiah Oliver at his pro-day....
I almost added Oliver to that next tier group...but, frankly after adding (3) new CBs to this team and Howard Wilson's return, I think they will focus elsewhere unless one of them drop to a spot that we pick for some reason. I don't think they will be focused on trading up for a CB. As for Vita Vea, he is one of the other players I mentioned, imho, won't fit our schemes perfectly in the end. I do think Vea goes around the top ten. He as well as the other two QBs and interior offensive linemen, and a few other players will push some of these players to spots lower than I personally would have them ranked. To me though, watching Vea, he reminds me of Shelton. If you recall, I LOVED Shelton coming out, but we were also in a 3-4 at the time. I think his worth was diminished somewhat switching back to a 4-3...as do I believe the same to be true for Vea in the NFL. For the record, they are bringing Vea in for a private visit in Cleveland, not a private workout. I'm not nitpicking, just clarifying. They can't work him out at the Berea facility, just give him a physical and do meetings. They would have to either go to Washington or his hometown to work him out. Here is the list of private workouts they currently have planned: Josh Allen QB, Wyoming Jeff Badet WR, Oklahoma Sam Darnold QB, USC Baker Mayfield QB, Oklahoma Josh Rosen QB, UCLA That's it..so they are spending their air miles on QBs...and apparently checking out a WR since they were going to be in Norman anyway.
Add to that list above minus Badet, the Browns are having private meetings, again they get only 30 at most, in Berea with all the QBs above and: Vita Vea DT, Washington, as TopDawg mentioned already Maurice Hurst DT, Michigan Lamar Jackson QB, Louisville Tremon Smith CB, Central Arkansas Arrion Springs CB, Oregon Charvarious Ward CB, Middle Tennessee So, I think they like a CB, but want to have some extra to the facility to not give away who they are actually interested in. That brings the list to 10 private visits, so I would assume we will be hearing more names, presumably top 20 guys who will be flying to Berea in the coming days.
Yeah, I'm not sure if we really signed any standout CB's though, other than Gaines...The other two CB's we signed seem like depth pieces to me, although I know Dorsey likes their speed...Speed is very important to Dorsey, as it should be.
TD, I disagree about Shelton. He wasn't a system fit, and I believe only saw <40% of the defensive snaps last year. He would have been the 3-4th DT in the rotation and saw less time. I could see adding Chubb, not only improving DE depth, but COULD allow for some creative scheming by Williams. Could maybe get something akin to the Rushmen package that tOSU employed.
I'm surprised there isn't a lot of push back on Saquon. Not sure who I'd target for RB, but believe there are enough good ones that we needn't make it a priority in round 1. I agree with you Irish, that much of what Saquon offers is peripheral to simply running the ball, but with Duke in the backfield, I feel we have a lot of that covered. Overall I am much more comfortable with Chubb at #4, for all the reasons you mentioned. We could certainly benefit from a D line that makes a mdeiocre secondary look good. Frankly I'd use #4 to take "Joe Thomas" if that guy was out there to be had, but he isn't. That is probably my greatest concern, assuming we get our QB at #1. Saquon is likely to be very good for someone, but I'm not convinced he will outshine his class by enough to make him a top four guy. If we learn from what Dorsey has done in the past, it is easy to think he will get us a good QB, and he has clearly set it up for that rookie to get help, with Stanton. As far as RB, he doesn't seem to value the position too highly, and I concur with that as well. I like the approach he and his Browns have taken so far. Anybody can be wrong in any given pick, but it is his methodical approach, covering his bases, that impresses me. Particularly after the "shotgun" approach and the "picks are everything" appreach has netted us 1 win in two years. Can't wait to see what Dorsey and Co have in store for the draft.
I never really took this as the "Saquon No Matter What" crowd that you see elsewhere in Browns-world. I think most were resigned to the fact that we'd be drafting a quarterback at some point and, while Saquon is generally-considered the top prospect by most, John Dorsey's track record with the position would seem to indicate we make the pass. Then signing Carlos Hyde - not a game-changer, per se but a solid back nonetheless - to starter money and actively trying to re-sign Duke Johnson Jr. this offseason kind of makes the running back room already feel full. Add to it your point about solid depth in this class and the need to not prioritize in Round 1 and you've got a group-think okay with the idea of passing. There's also something worrisome about Saquon's production - and not even the lack of yardage as that can be attributed to a bad offensive line, the only weapon, etc. But Saquon's most glaring issue is the same one that doomed Trent Richardson and that's his lack of field vision. His spectacular runs in college are not those of an Adrian Peterson, but rather a Barry Sanders - he makes players miss with incredible athleticism but not sheer speed/power through the hole and point-of-contact.
If I'm drafting 4th with a QB already in hand there's just no way I'm passing on the opportunity to trade down and secure a future 1st round pick. And if no one wants to come up thinking they don't need to I'm drafting another QB and auctioning him off. The return is just too much to pass up.
I don't think I would have an issue with any of this. They just better be sure that they can roll with 4 QBs in case their bluff is called to start the season. I think with Denver sitting at 5, they should have some takers even if the return is not a kings ransom.
Sorry Beach, I'm not getting on that wagon. It reminds me too much of a Sashi move, targeting the future at the expense of this year. I gotta come out of the draft with some "this year" guys, and I'm already sacrificing the #1 for next year. I just can't give my first two picks to some kind of hope that we'll get someone who will help us later. If there's a partner out there who will give us something we want on draft day, maybe, but I'd sure like to see Chubb / Garrett harassing opposing QBs, and a second Rookie QB who may or may not net me something better later, doesn't work for me. I think Dorsey has shown every indication that the goal is "win this year", so, no dice on drafting 2 Rookie QBs. He also likes Hogan, so if he wants 4 QBs, he's got em.
You would get a first this season and next season too. Also could get a second or third this season too.
Once again, I think Dorsey has done a masterful job, in setting up the draft. He's already covered the team's #1 need at QB. It could be argued that we don't "have to" even take a QB (not by me), but my point is he's got a QB now, and it's at least as good a QB as half the league. He's brought in Hyde, so our RB status is also OK, if we choose to forgoe the big name guys there. He's arguably set us up with enough coverage guys to make taking the best cover guy an option rather than a requirement. At the same time he has all the draft capital to do any and maybe all of that in the draft, should he wish to. Sittin pretty IMO. The only spot I still worry about is left tackle, and if some desperate team had a top shelf guy, I would be listening to trade possibilities, for one of our first round picks. I'm not sure how soon Dorsey and Thomas got together on when Joe was out, but it feels like that's the one surprise Dorsey wasn't already ahead of.
Beach, if you're talking draft day Cool, but I'm not willing to take a 2nd QB in hopes that materializes.
