The list goes on but a major % increase is rare. Brees is a very rare exception. Guys around the mid 50s stay in the mid 50s, guys in the low 60s stay there, etc.
Favre was 52.4 in college and 62.0 as a pro. But at the end of the day, collegiate numbers are just that. The same factors that impact the pro stats are relevant in college so to simply use school stats as anything more than a reference for verification on potential holes in a players game that you see on film is flawed logic. You can find statistical trends that can be used as markers for potential flags, but they should never be used as a stand alone to value a prospect.
Seems like a sub-post at me, so I won't take the bait. I'm just kidding. The few Hall of Fame quarterbacks you've mentioned over the past couple posts that improved accuracy from college to the pros are very much the exception to the rule. The overall trend is statistically insignificant from prospects who improved from college to pros, but there is very much a statistically significant number of players who declined. Tom Brady: 61.9 (college), 63.9 (pros) - one of the greatest in the history of the game... +2.0% You used Brees as an example, but he's been prolific since the move to New Orleans with a QB-friendly scheme and coach. Brees' numbers in San Diego were only +1.1 better than college (61.1 versus 62.2). Sam Bradford: 67.6 (college), 62.2 (pros) -5.4 Brandon Weeden: 69.5 (college), 57.9 (pros) -11.6 Russell Wilson: 60.9 (college career), 72.8 (Wisconsin), 64.0 (pros) +3.1 (career) but -8.8 (Wisconsin) Philip Rivers: 63.6 (college), 64.2 (pros) +0.6 Blake Bortles: 65.7 (college), 59.1 (pros)
It was not directed at you, but you do point out a notable aspect. It appears if the QB is a very successful NFL QB his percentage is likely to go up. I'm not trying to be provocative, but I guess if your guy is someone you believe in, there is no reason to believe he won't improve. If he doesn't succeed he won't improve and if he does succeed he will improve. IMHO
For what it's worth, I *expect* Baker Mayfield's completion percentage at the next level to decline. It would be pretty impressive if it didn't, since he's completely nearly 70-percent of his throws. Windows get tighter, pass rush gets faster, defenses get better, there's a number of reasons to expect drop-offs. There's also the age of the quarterbacks in play. All current qualified quarterback who had at least 150 attempts last season make up 40 of the dataset. 18 of these QBs improved their accuracy from college to the NFL. That leaves 22 who's accuracy declined from college to the pros. Of the 18 who improved, their average seasons in the NFL is almost 10 (9.7 years). On the flipside, those who's declined average only 5.3 years. Of the sub-5.3 year set (17 QBs), only four have increased their accuracy, by an average of 2.1% (with an outlier of Jimmy Garoppolo who improved from the FCS level 62.3 to 67.3 in the pros... +5.0%). On the flip side, those who declined (13 QBs), the average decline was -4.7% (with an ourlier of Mitch Trubisky who posted 67.4 in his lone season but notched a 59.3 mark this year... -8.1%). QBs drafted since 2015 (12 QBs) who've qualified average a drop of 4.4% with the average seasons accrued of 1.5. So apply this trend to the current crop of QBs. If they start (or throw even the minimum requirement 150) [includes where this would rank among 2017 passers]: Mayfield: 64.1 (t-11th) Darnold: 60.5 (24th) Rosen: 56.5 (31st) Jackson: 52.6 (38th) Allen: 51.8 (44th) The talent and scheme of the team drafting them will obviously have an impact as well. The best performance of the 12 QBs was a +2.4 (Dak Prescott) who landed in a perfect situation. It's safe to say none of the team drafting in the Top 6 fit this description. Next was Jacoby Brissett (+0.3% - statically insignificant). Assuming their college was the baseline: Mayfield: 68.5 (2nd) Darnold: 64.9 (7th) Rosen: 60.9 (23rd) Jackson: 57.0 (31st) Allen: 56.2 (32nd) The worst numbers in the past three seasons (not DeShone Kizer, oddly enough) was the 8.1% drop by both Trubisky and Brett Hundley (67.5 college, 59.4 pros). Kizer (-7.1) was third-worst. Drop that in and take a look: Mayfield: 60.4 (23rd) Darnold: 56.8 (32nd) Rosen: 52.8 (38th) Jackson: 48.9 (unranked) Allen: 48.1 (unranked) Allen's number is below those of JaMarcus Russell and would rank as the sixth-worst completion percentage in history in since 1999, joining guys like Derek Anderson, Tim Tebow, Scott Mitchell, and Stoney Case.
^^^^^ Why is this important? John Dorsey has stressed two significant qualities in his preferred QB choice beyond how well they understand the game (obviously a huge requirement). Those two things are: winning and accuracy. Consistently, those are what he points to ahead of everything else. By John Dorsey's own requirements - the only two QBs who fit this mold in the 2018 class are Darnold and Mayfield - who both boast the best career winning percentages and completion percentages (Mayfield is significantly better than Darnold in both, FWIW). When you layer in John Dorsey's draft history with quarterback, you get an even clearer picture where seniority/maturity and productivity are valued (many of his own personal biases confirm to the Parcells' Rules of drafting QBs). Only Baker Mayfield (in this group of QBs - the other is Mason Rudolph) fit those requirements as well. John Dorsey's #1-ranked QB in 2017 that he traded up significantly to draft was a 6'2" prolific passer from a spread offense in the Big 12 (Patrick Mahomes). The notion that he would prefer Josh Allen to any of these guys and also has Baker Mayfield lower on his board is completely off-base and out of character. Could he pick Sam Darnold? Absolutely. That would seem to signify that the coaches (and possibly ownership) had a significant say in the decision as well. If the choice on April 26th is Baker Mayfield, it really shouldn't shock anyone who's observed Dorsey and who's watched film on these QBs.
Not sure if anyone posted this yet.....only had time to read a couple of pages back. Looks like our rookie will sit for maybe two years and Kessler and Hogan are gone. Any potential change now with Taylor and Stanton on board with who the Browns pick as QB and does it change what pick (#1 or #4) they do it with? Maybe Barkley at #1 and QB at #4 or maybe trade down from #1? Browns signed QB Drew Stanton, formerly of the Cardinals, to a two-year contract. Stanton's agent first reported the deal by congratulating his client on social media. Stanton joins a crowded quarterback committee that now consists of the recently acquired Tyrod Taylor, Cody Kessler, and Kevin Hogan. It's likely Kessler or Hogan don't make it out of camp with Cleveland considering the Browns are fully expected to add another quarterback to their roster via the No. 1 or No. 4 pick in April's draft. Source: Mike McCartney on Twitter
I don't think it changes up the approach too much. John Dorsey said his goal Year 1 was to play competitive football - I'll have to dig up the quote, but he may have suggested winning the AFC North. There's no way he's going to let a rookie (#1 pick) see the field. Stanton in a starter in a pinch but this is really Tyrod's season. Stanton should be the shadow for Mayfield and teach him everything he can about being an NFL pro. The dude's been in the NFL for 11 seasons and isn't a good QB... that's impressive. I do still think Saquon is in play (and will be available) at #4 overall... I just also think it goes against Dorsey's draft history and preferences to take a running back that early.
It's a shame they didn't change the site of the draft to Cleveland this year. That would be an awesome sight, since everything in this draft appears to about Cleveland. Would love to see the Dog Pound going crazy building up to the first pick.
Too close to Lake Erie. That's a lot of search and rescue if that first pick ends up being Josh Allen.
I picture him doing this in an extremely whiny voice... "Guuuuuysssss... don't celebrate. C'monnnnnnn... "
I agree with your take on this...Really? The refs and the rules take a lot of the fun out of football already, you want to take the fun of celebrating a great play away too? Most of the greats celebrate plays, this is a job, but it's a fun job......until it isn't.
