I do not have the link, but a short while ago I read an article on my phone from NFL.com talking about how the Browns and Dorsey are still using analytics, it breaks down how good Tyrod and Juice are analytically speaking. It also mentions how ALL signs point to the Browns drafting (stopper, avert your eyes) Baker Mayfield. How his measureables, intangibles, and statistics all fall in line with Taylor.
With all the focus since his Pro Day being how the Browns will draft Sam Darnold, I have to circle back to just how much of a statistic anomaly Baker is. Mayfield is the most accurate (hyper-accurate) passer in college. Not just *this* year... ever. His accuracy at every level is off the charts good. His rate of "catchable" passes is again, off-the-charts. But he goes beyond that. He's the second-smartest QB tested at the Combine since 2012 (presumably only behind Andrew Luck). He's got an NFL arm (60 mph velocity). He can throw from the pocket, which included a 6'8" left tackle. He can create outside the structure of the play. He is deceptively athletic and a playmaker with plus-vision when carrying the football. And the Browns are going to take Sam Darnold because he has... higher upside? In what possible way? Neither Baker Mayfield *nor* Sam Darnold have been coached by NFL coaches (one could argue Darnold has been coached by higher-caliber coaches and it's also noted Baker Mayfield has not employed QB coaches in the past). Is it because Sam Darnold is younger? Baker may be a bit older (2 years and 53 days older, to be exact) but that's not a significant difference from the franchise's standpoint. Baker's rookie deal would expire when he is 28, Darnold's when he's 26. A re-signing or extension would be 4-5 years (presumably), putting their next deal expiration at 33 and 31, respectively. That's still time for a third deal if they're performing as expected. If we're talking about youth as an indicator of how much more they can learn, consider this: Baker Mayfield had a different coach or coordinator every year he was in college. Baker Mayfield improved *every* *single* *year*. Sam Darnold had the same head coach and coordinator for both seasons at USC... the result? After a very impressive freshman season, he dipped across the board: Accuracy: -6.1% Adjusted yards per attempt: -5.6% Touchdowns: -16.1% Interceptions: +44.4% QB rating: -8.1% I fail to see a single factor that would favor Darnold over Mayfield, save one: he's a traditional, safe pick. If everyone thinks he should be the pick at #1 and he fails - no one loses their job. If Dorsey bucks the group think and the QB taken somehow flops (Mayfield won't, but still... ) then it's a deal breaker. Would fear of losing his job really cause Dorsey to make the critical mistake of choosing the wrong quarterback? I shudder to think that could be true. And what what would mean for the rest of his draft/tenure.
Cleveland Browns QB draft probabilities: Sam Darnold 50% Josh Allen 45% Josh Rosen 4% Baker Mayfield 1%
Cleveland Browns probabilities of drafting a new QB in 2-3 seasons if taking: Sam Darnold: 100% Josh Allen: 100,000,000% Josh Rosen: 50% Baker Mayfield: 1%
Good Break-Down on Darnold (the good and bad): https://www.cover1.net/scouting-report-qb-sam-darnold-usc/ Still don't see how anyone reads things like this and thinks that's Dorsey's guy. Here's some good parts: So... an option quarterback? Got it. So... an athletic Cody Kessler? Here's a picture of all the QBs with "mechanical or footwork flaws" that have successfully turned it around in Cleveland and/or under Hue Jackson: Behind whom? (see above) So... not our offense.
If I'm being honest, I think it is more like Sam Darnold 65% Baker Mayfield 20% Josh Allen 10% Josh Rosen 5% They are NOT drafting Josh Rosen...even if Dorsey for some unforeseen reason traded the #1 overall pick and the first three picks were Darnold, Allen and Mayfield...Rosen will not be in a Browns uniform. Sorry Sam... I think the Steelers fanclub would LOVE not to see Mayfield chosen to be the Browns next QB, but it is much closer to reality than anyone is giving credit. Everyone, fans, talking heads, web prognosticators do not want to believe a guy under 6'1" will ever be considered for the #1 overall draft pick...especially when he has attributes in his demeanor that turn some people off. The Steelers don't have a shot in hell of having him on their team, so he automatically annoys them and they want to believe he annoys everyone else to the point that he won't be considered...Stopper, you are in that same category, since you are not a Browns fan... When looking at all the QBs on paper AND film...If you remove two aspects of evaluation, 1) Height 2) The cockiness meter...One prospect stands above all others, and it isn't close...Baker Mayfield is head and shoulders above every other QB on an overall scale...It's not close. So to say he is last on the list of QB prospects, IN MY HUMBLE OPINION, is coming from a team of fans who haven't done their homework...and of course stopper, who never does his homework.
I hope they take Allen because I think he will be the best QB in two years. I hope they don't take Mayfield because I don't think his game translates as well to the NFL level. I have absolutely no reason to wish bad on the Browns. I think the fans deserve a winner. Now all that being said if you win a couple AFC North titles and knock the Steelers out of the playoffs I will absolutely change my stance.
So Mayfield's great mechanics, timing, accuracy, leadership, and winning do not translate, but Allen's already repaired rocket arm and lack of the remaining traits do translate?
Surprise, surprise. Literally *EVERY* possible metric: "Baker Mayfield is the best QB, hands down. Not close." *mic drop* People Who Can't Get Over Six-Foot: "B-but... Sam Darnold looks like a quarterback. Josh Allen has a big arm."
I said two years. And yes, the arm, the size, the athletic ability, the pocket presence all translate better in my opinion.
Josh Allen: 62 (left), 62 (right) Baker Mayfield: 59 (left), 60 (right) Allen recorded the highest velocity speed since its inception. Mayfield is tied for second-highest. [Allen/Mayfield] 40 Yard Dash: 4.75s / 4.84s Vertical Jump: 33 1/2" / 29" Broad Jump: 119" / 111" 3-Cone Drill: 6.9s / 7.0s 20 Yard Shuttle: 4.40s / 4.28s Josh Allen *frequently* breaks the pocket and tries to get outside to run. Baker Mayfield extends plays from within the pocket and executes more efficiently than any other QB in the history of the NCAA. Josh Allen trusts his strong arm to a fault and frequently throws off-base from within the pocket and rarely, if ever, steps up into the pocket to throw. Baker Mayfield has had to overcome his height limitation while working from within the pocket and has perfected releasing the football from different angles and points, while stepping into the pocket to avoid pressure.
