2018 Free Agent Bids

Lions Bid
Nevin Lawson
790,000 (min)

Lions Bid
Haloti Ngata
1,015,000(min)

 

I believe Kevin Zeitler is the leagues highest paid Guard..He signed a 5yr/$60m contact last year with $23m in guarantees...If Norwell got more than that, I'd be surprised.

 

Ooooo! I missed this one. Gotta think about this for a while.

Me ---><---Quew

 

Norwell will get more than that, but I reckon he'll max out at about $13.5m

 

Zeitler averages I believe 12 million APY.

Norwell is young and proven -- he will reset the highest contract absolutely beating Zeitler. I just don't think it escalates so much so quickly. If I was a betting man I would say $13.5 APY is what he will get on a 5 year deal. So 5 years $67.5 million. He will have a lower base salary year one that is fully guaranteed and about half his year 2 salary will end up guaranteed as well. Signing bonus is probably around $15 million.

Bottom line I think he gets a deal worth just shy of $68 million over 5 years and walks away with about to $25 million in guaranteed dollars. If I am his agent I am shooting for about 40% guaranteed in this market where he is clearly the prize.

This is pretty specific but I have put a lot of thought into what Norwell would potentially do to the Giants cap...

 

This is not true. The Steelers are a team that never guarantees money after the first year of a contract. It's their MO and there are no exceptions, not even Ben. What they do instead is include 2nd year roster bonuses that not guaranteed but then give them the option, assuming everything goes well to restructure that contract in Year 2, guaranteed the option bonus and spread it out over the life of the remainder of the contract. Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Hewyard, Maurkice Pouncey, Stephon Tuitt, David DeCastro, Mike Mitchell, Ike Taylor, James Farrior, James Harrison, Antonio Brown have all had their contracts restructured in Year 2 or 3 of their deals. It's how they operate.

And then you have teams who redo deals out of sheer necessity right away. The Ravens restructured Jimmy Smith's contract in Year 2 and 3. They signed Brandon Williams to a contract in March and restructured it in September when they found themselves short on cash - in the same year. That was a first for me. I'd never seen a team do that before but if you ask Raven's fans that's definitely not a sign of poor cap health. They'll probably have to do it again in year 2. They also restructured Yanda's deal in year 2. They restructured Suggs' deal in year 2.

The Saints are another team that re-structured deals early. Cam Jordan's deal was done in year 2. Terron Armstead's deal was done in year 2. They're likely to re-do Warford's deal in year 2.

 

Not trying to argue but Zeitler is proven too, and he's only a year older than Norwell...

$25m in guarantees sounds about right. That's the number they focus on...

EDIT: my bad... Zeitler got $23m at signing, and $31.5m in overall guaranteed money according to Sportrac...

 

Obviously, Norwell will be well compensated....He's definitely hitting the market at an opportune time.

 

$12 million signing bonus and $11 million in salary guaranteed that I see. Where does Spotrac account for the rest?

 

There is a clause in the CBA called the Veteran Cap Benefit Rule. It's a way to protect older players from being pushed out the door by younger, less expensive players. It allows a team to pay a veteran the minimum salary amount per their age (example 10 year player minimum is 1,015,000) but the team only has to apply the minimum amount for a 2nd year player (630,000) towards the cap. It also allows the team to offer up to an 80,000 bonus and still qualify.

So last year the Steelers signed Justin Hunter (4-6 years) for 775,000, gave him a 30,000 signing bonus and a 50,000 roster bonus. He normally would have counted 855,000 towards the cap but since the veteran benefit kicked in he only counted 695,000 against the cap (615,000 2nd year minimum + 80,000 bonus). They used to sign their veteran long snapper to this type of deal every year. In his 12th season he signed for 985,000 with a 80,000 bonus and only counted 680,000 against the cap.

 

So for everyone in this exercise. Anyone you sign for the veteran minimum only needs to count 630,000 vs the salary cap.

 

Current Contract


Kevin Zeitler signed a 5 year, $60,000,000 contract with the Cleveland Browns, including a $12,000,000 signing bonus, $31,500,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $12,000,000. In 2018, Zeitler will earn a base salary of $10,000,000, while carrying a cap hit of $12,400,000 and a dead cap value of $14,600,000.

CONTRACT TERMS:5 yr(s) / $60,000,000 SIGNING BONUS$12,000,000 AVERAGE SALARY$12,000,000 GTD AT SIGN:$23,000,000 TOTAL GTD:$31,500,000 FREE AGENT:2022 / UFA


sorry for lousy format

 

It doesn't just reset next year. Remember that all cap space rolls over to the next year. By restructuring you will increase your cap hit on those players and thus the team in future years. So by making space to sign more players this year, even if 1-year deals, you will be moving less rollover cap forward to an already lower amount of initial cap space in following years.

Any teams that made giant restructures to players that may not be very useful to the team for the duration of the contract essentially goofed badly.

 

Yes and the vet min is only for 4+ years of experience. So for instance Jaylen Watkins counts for his full 3-year minimum amount.

 

Yes good point.

 

FYI rollover cap on a team that should have a ton of cap room essentially makes front-loading moot. Any money you spend to make room in the future is equally countered by less money in the early years being rolled over to the future years.

 

I don't think Tim or I ever said that. I think a random just brought it up. Tim and I have been hinting for a long time that the Vet mins were coming up soon and kept pushing it back a few days at a time. We were originally going from 3M strait to the min but ended up going to $1.5M first and then giving the weekend until opening it up. And we announced it in advance.

 

The perception I get from the league is that Norwell isn't only going to get paid from it being a year later (the cap going up) but also that Norwell is a younger, better player. If Norwell gets anything at or under 13.5M i'd be surprised. I think he'll get around 15M as an average salary, maybe more with NLBE (not likely to be earned) incentives. Considering Zeitler got 15m in this mock last year. I don't see the bidding too out of line with what he'll get.

 

Look at the contract breakdown. I don't see that extra guarantee anywhere. Over the Cap has the guarantee at 23 million and the breakdown reflect that. $12 million at signing and another $11 million in salary guarantees. I just don't see where the extra money is.

 

Honestly you might be right. Last year I thought prices were completely outlandish in this exercise. A lot of them ended up closer to correct then I would have thought. I have toyed with the idea of bumping Norwell up. And frankly I would have paid 14 without blinking. When he crossed that line to 15 though it was simply too much for a guard in my book. There is plenty of cap space out there though and it's not insane to think he might get it.