Especially if we can get a 3rd round pick or maybe two 4th rounders. You probably think I'm crazy wanting to create another hole for Pace to fill. But I'll make a case for why Jordan Howard isn't anything special. He's decent. He's young, durable and seemingly could be a developing QB's best friend. But there are a few reasons why we should trade him: 1) Howard's 2017 wasn't that great. Let's take a deep look: - Started 16 games and rushed for 1122 yards on 276 carries (a suprisingly light workload considering the playcalling). All that was good for a 4.1 average per carry, which is fairly... average. Of course the counter argument will be that the playcalling was so predictable (noted by Howard himself) and teams were stacked up in the box to stop him. But really to me it was dependent on how well the o-line opened holes. Against Pittsburgh and Cincy he had gaping holes to run through, any RB would have put up similar or likely better numbers in those games. And both of those defenses knew we'd run the ball all day. When holes were not opened, Howard showed zero ability to make a play on his own. - 681 of those 1122 yards (61%) came in just 5 (extremely productive) games. The remaining 441 yards was spread across 11 games, good for an average of 40 yards per game. 2017 saw some great games, but it saw more than double that of extremely low productive games. - 3 of those games he rushed for less than 10 yards. As a starter. Playing in an offense that only ever wanted to run the ball. 2) RBs like Howard are replaceable. We found Howard in the 5th round. A look around the league at starting RBs reveals that many came from rounds 3 or later, many who have been to the Pro Bowl. It is well known RB is one of the most replaceable positions in the sport. Guys off the scrap heap can be productive in any given season. Howard doesn't strike me as a guy who will be around in 5-6 years. Get value for him now. 3) He probably has the worst hands of any RB in the league and was never a threat or security blanket for Trubs. A RB with average receiving skills would be a major asset for Trubs in 2018. 4) He lacks breakaway speed but also the ability to bowl guys over with his size/strength and is an average goal line back. As I mentioned, he's not really a playmaker. When the hole is there, he will hit it well. But the hole has to be there or he is helpless. Many of you probably don't even consider RB in need of an upgrade, but it is. Tarik is fun but he's not an every down option. Howard's shortcomings have been documented above. Maybe by trading him we can find a better replacement through one of the acquired picks. And even if we don't, are we really that much worse off with (the underrated) Benny Cunnigham, Tarik and another rookie or two or a sneaky good cheap free agent (Carlos Hyde, Isiah Crowell)? Alright that's all I got. Have at me. I'm trying to stir the pot a little, but also kind of being serious.
Trading Howard is a bad idea with a good offensive coordinator and head coach coming in. The problem with Howard's production was primarily the shitty play calling and the lack of an even mediocre offensive line. Howard is not a great back but he is a quality player on a team which lacks quite a few quality players, particularly on offense.
I think you smoked the pot 1) I doubt Hyde will be cheap. 2) He had a 5.2 in his first season which is above average 3) Your offense was terrible last season and teams knew you were going to run and he still got a 4.1 which was better than Bell, Fournette, McCoy, Gordon, and Carlos hyde who you want to sign in his place. 4) He finished top 10 in rushing (only 4 of the other top 10 guys had less carries). 5) When you have a ton of holes to fill you don't trade away a position you have filled to make more holes 6) Its only his second year and at 23 his best years are ahead of him
I'm not in favor of getting rid of him because he's one of the decent playmakers this offense has. That being said.....Matt Nagy wants his backs to be receivers out of the backfield, and Jordan Howard is not catching passes out of the backfield. Kareem Hunt caught 53 passes out of the backfield on 63 targets. Jordan Howard didn't have half of those receptions (23) nor targets (32) in 2017. When the article about him saying Fox ran a "basic" offense and he's excited about the next, I didn't think he'd be in the future plans. He's his best in a basic offense. He's not going to have a space if all he can do is run the football. Teams will gameplan for him immediately because he's a one dimensional runner, albeit a very talented one. And I'm on the pessimistic side in thinking the bears are just in a shitty place here unless Howard somehow figures out how to be a dual threat out of the backfield, which he had all last offseason to work on, but didn't--and again I'll believe he can become that when I see it. If we entertain the thought of Howard being a trade piece, he's not going to get anybody's 1st nor 2nd rounder, and the bears need him to be worth that, and unless the bears hit a 3rd or 4th rounder they're probably going to get for him out of the park, that will go down as an enormous blunder if Howard is in an offense that's in his wheelhouse and he continues to be a 2nd tier running back in the league for some years. He's approaching the end of his rookie deal after 2019, so he's got 2 years for Pace to keep him or get rid of him. That's a lot of time to waste away because he can only be a runner here and put up less than average to average stats because the box is just going to be stacked against him, constantly. Maybe Nagy proves me wrong. Maybe he adds a dimension to the offense he's going to bring here, and ideally Jordan Howard has a role in that offense. That's probably the best reason why I could think that Mark Helfrich got hired, even as a placeholder at OC because Nagy is calling the plays. Helfrich had Lamichael James and Kenjon Barner as his primary runners and De'Anthony Thomas as his pass catching back during his head coaching career at Oregon. He didn't run an offense like Nagy's, he ran a RPO. It's a slim chance Howard stays here and continues a great career as another back we can all fondly recall, but I think after this year the bears will have a bad decision to make because he will be worth less than a 3rd or 4th rounder he could be this offseason.
Agree completely with this. To your point above I don't think there are many offenses left in the league that really want/need a one dimensional RB to do all the work. Howard is a good RB to have as a part of a RB committee. He's not going to immediately make a team better if he is traded to that team. He will contribute effectively, but not make a huge difference. This is why I'm ok with getting a 3rd or multiple 4ths for him. Maybe a team sees him as something more than he is. Let's cash in on that. And again, we won't be that much worse off in the worst case scenario.
Let me get this straight. We should trade away a 23 year old running back with a 4.6 average per carry, who almost never fumbles or misses time due to injury for a third round pick? The big complaint about Howard is his lack of receiving skills. Howard went from a catch % of 59 in his rookie season(horrible) to 71.9% this past season(respectable). I dont know about you but I think it just might be worth it to let the new coaching staff get a hold of Howard and see if they can improve on his receiving skills a bit further before we go shipping him off for a 3rd round pick. Also let us not forget how well Howard did running out of shotgun in his rookie season before Loggains, for some unknown reason, abandoned it this past season. Something Nagy will surely look to do next season.
I presume the first part is aimed at blang..... I didn't say the bears should trade Jordan Howard for a 3rd round pick. In fact, I said I didn't want them to trade him. I also said that I don't expect anybody to come knocking for a one dimensional back in the new Bears system with a first or a second round pick. I also think the bears have a shitty hand with Jordan Howard unless he can find the ability to become a dual threat out of the backfield, because otherwise he'll be ineffective in Nagy's offense. And you can quote his catching percentage, his targets were still anemic compared to what Kansas City had in their feature backs Kareem Hunt and Spencer Ware in 2017 and 2016 before Ware went down with his injury to end his brief 2017. And the issue with utilizing him running him out of the shotgun? An easy game plan if you're the opposing defensive coordinator. Jordan Howard package coming in? Play action or he's getting the ball, so you're going to see the box be constantly stacked again. And while I have faith in Nagy as opposed to Frodo, that's a huge uphill battle/headache just to keep Jordan Howard getting 20+ carries. That's probably the best value you're going to get for him if you dangle him. I don't think Pace is looking to make a deal to get Jordan Howard off the roster as a priority move. Like I said, the bears will hold onto him another year, and unless he improves said pass catching out of the backfield--he will net a later round pick. Factor in that 2019 is the final year of his rookie deal that will decrease his value further. So if the plan is to move him, now is the time. But then you have to add 2 more running backs, because Cohen can't be your focal point and Cunningham is a free agent.
My big hope is that the Bears figure out how to use Cohen who I think has great talent to be exploited in conjunction with Howard. It was the worst part of last season to me, watching him sit the bench so much and to give the plays to Howard that Cohen would have been much better having. My fingers are crossed. With the Bears I have become used to Bears failure to use talent and hope like hell this gets corrected next season.
That's a cherry picked stat. As Patg points out his targets were ridiculously low, and there's a reason why. When we did needed him to make a catch (Atlanta game at the goal line) he dropped an easy one. And no, I don't think any coaching staff can improve a guy's hands. Exactly. His trade value will only decline over time as his one-dimensionality becomes more obvious. I'm for bringing back Cunningham to be a part of the RB committee with Cohen and one of the previously mentioned FAs. Throw in a rookie off the scrap heap and we will be fine.
Bunk. The guy is a top three running back in the entire NFL. You don't get rid of a guy like for a couple of scrub draft picks. Not on a team that doesn't have even three other players of his over-all worth on the entire team. And gee whiz.... imagine if this guy actually had an offensive line that was worth a shit which the Bears did not have.
So Jordan Howard is only worth max two 4th round picks? With a Cohen in the same backfield with him and an offensive coordinator that knows anything, this duo will thrive. I watched a couple of stupid people(yeah, Pace was one of them, GIVE AWAY their best offensive players in an effort to get younger and improve the so-called locker room). I only hope that Pace doesn't fuck this thing up also. This fucker better decide to build a GOOD offensive line in front of what could be an awesome trio of talent in Howard, Cohen, and Trubisky. This trio has a good chance of being very special for the next five years to come. They need talent up front.
Oakland Raiders would like to entertain you with Michael Crabtree and a 3rd round pick for Mr. Howard.
Please explain how catching percentage is a cherry picked stat. It’s the only fucking stat that matters in this argument. Yes he did have a low number of targets but Loggains/Fox’s offense was a disaster. Like I pointed out before. Howard excelled running out of shotgun his rookie season only to see those chances disappear this season. Why? Do you actually think the reason Howard had so few targets this season was because of his drop against Atlanta? Come on you are just fucking around right? I mean you don’t think the fact that the Bears as a team attempted the fewest passes or that they ran a basic ass run run pass offense or that the were trying to get Cohen involved had anything to do with it? You said it yourself that they won’t do better than a third round pick. Maybe just maybe since Howard still has 2 years left on his rookie deal you give it a go with him before you make the the worst trade in team history. Which is what trading Howard away for a third or two fourths or three fifths would be doing. He’s never going to be known for his great hands. Doesn’t make him useless though. He can still pick up a blitzed or catch a screen or dump off pass. Yes he is going to drop an easy one here and there. Hopefully his rushing totals will help us forget about those.
The reason is absolutely because he has terrible hands, a fact you yourself somewhat acknowledge. Yeah, trading Howard for a 3rd round pick would be way worse than trading a first round pick for Rick Mirer. Or Brandon Marshall for two 4ths. Come on you are just fucking around right? You admit he doesn't have good hands. I never said he was useless. He can do the things you say, so can 100 other RBs. You either manage to not read my posts or simply choose to see different words on the screen. He's a good one dimensional RB. I think we can get value for him now and utilize a RB committee going forward while adding more picks.
Al I think you're overthinking this. Blang is stirring the pot during this boring ass time where nobody cares about the superbowl unless they love the patriots or eagle. The bears certainly wont deal Howard. But if we're going to entertain the idea, don't think of him like trading away Brandon Marshall to "make the lockerroom better," think of it like Matt Slauson. Effective, useful player that had no roster spot on the offense Fox/Gase ran at the time. Slauson specialized in zone pass blocking and he was average at run blocking, which is why we had to go because Fox/Gase wanted a strong running game. Now we can spend all day on the merits of releasing Slauson, because we all objectively saw an interior OL who got guys in position when he played Center and was a guy you seldom had to worry about because he was consistent. During Shitwad's later years here as quarterback he was a reliable offensive lineman. The same way Howard is a reliable running back. He's damn fine, and I don't just want to give him away for a 3rd or a 4th rounder. That being said, Nagy is bringing an offense which in similarity to Kansas City's, needs dual purpose running backs who can both run the ball effectively and catch passes out of the backfield. Howard isn't the latter, which is why Blang and myself have concluded he may not be a future fit in the team's plans. But again, I brought up the hiring of Mark Helfrich, who came from Oregon's offense of a RPO style where Barner and James were the ground/pound guys who could sometimes catch passes out of the backfield, but it was DeAnthony Thomas as the dual threat back. I Nagy is introducing that in his offense as well, which is why I think Howard will and should be around one more year. The problem is, as stated--teams know when Howard is on the field he's not a pass catcher. I expect stacked boxes when he's on the field. In 2016 Howard was targeted 50 times and caught 29 passes. In 2017 he was targeted 32 times and caught 23. We're not focusing on Jordan Howard when he's being handed the football. We're focusing on how Nagy wants his guys like Kareem Hunt to catch 52 passes on 63 targets or Spencer Ware catch 33 passes on 42 targets in 2016. And I see you're arguing that its all based off of Frodo's bad playcalling and think Howard's completion percentage being 71% isn't a bad thing. I think the opposite and Blang's right, you cherry picked the percentage but didn't look at the entirety of the equation, because your argument has nothing to stand on if you look beyond the percentage. In a year where all of the perceived 'play-making' receivers went down with injuries or were just plain bad, Howard's receiving stats should have skyrocketed because he should have seen more targets in the dink and dunk, Frodo style offense. They didn't. His stats went backwards. Fact. Why? Because he's not good at catching the ball out of the backfield. Blang brought up the Atlanta game. Trubisky did ignore him at times this season after dropping easy passes thrown right to him. Should Howard be given a chance in Nagy's system? Sure. He's too good a runner not to. But......I think his limited ability to be that dual threat and have him as a rotational piece in Nagy's running back schemes, which he's too good to be a part time player. Again, he has to be a better pass catcher. He's not, and I'm with Blang, 71% catching rate is great on paper, but when your targets go down by near 2/5 from 2016 to 2017 when the opportunities opened up, that doesn't scream reliability to me as it seems to do for you.
I think I give Nagy and Helfrich enough credit to use an outstanding runner, rather than limit his use because he can't catch. If teams want to stack the box, they're welcome to. Just throw the ball. Put Howard and Cohen out there at the same time (I am eternally dumbfounded that we didn't see more of this, this year), and let defenses react accordingly. But none of that matters. The key part of this conversation is, very simply: don't give Pace another hole to fill. Even in another loaded RB draft, I don't trust that guy. I'm crossing my fingers that he can do a decent job, at all, let alone having enough confidence in him to fill further holes.
To me, Howards problems in pass receiving is fixable. I think his problem is taking his eyes off of the ball rather than having bad hands per se. He is still very young and can at last be decent as a short pass receiver.
