Actually, I think what SAS was trying to say was that it wasn't the fact they didn't have the right players, it was the coaching that screwed up the perfectly fine roster. #SASexoneratesSashi #SASblamesHueFully Personally, I believe it's somewhere in the middle. I believe they should both take blame. However, the fact there weren't veterans at certain positions (ESPECIALLY the QB position), lends me to think Sashi is more to blame than a coach that used the best player he had available, even though that player was no where near ready to be used...That's my hot take on the subject.
Here's the deal... 1-31 is a team effort. I have an incredibly difficult time believing that Sashi Brown deserves more blame than Hue Jackson and it is completely preposterous to believe he had more say in the QB position than the self-appointed "QB Guru" did. If Haslam decided to fire Brown because his was the signature on the final 53-man, great... that's what he signed on for and I'm not weeping tears for the guy. But you cannot in the same sentence defend a coach who went 1-31 (Sashi's record is only 1-26 FWIW). The only people you hear the roster is crap from are Hue Jackson, his coaches, and his apologists in the media. Gil Brandt said its' a Top 15 roster. Glover Quin had it as a Top 7 roster. Albert Breer reported just yesterday that the hottest name in the QB market - Kirk Cousins - would "seriously consider" signing here and one reason (besides crap-tons of cash) is that the prevailing thought around the NFL is that the roster is a lot closer than 0-16 would indicate. And the reason all this is important is because we're heading into a meat-grinder of a schedule that even with Tom Brady signing a deal here, the Browns' ceiling is 4-5 wins. Hue Jackson will have gone 6-42 (0.125) over that time and will of course be fired - especially if the mind-boggling game day crap continues with or without an offensive coordinator. It's setting us up for a wasted season with Hue's offense, Hue's players, and Hue's coaching approach. Whichever QB we select at No. 1 overall will be forced to learn two new offensive systems within the first 20 months of their career. Hue has notoriously boasted about jamming players into his scheme and Dorsey seemed to go along with that when he said he needed to get "Hue players". We sacrificed the wrong pound of flesh to appease the football gods after going 1-31 and set us up for a bad 2018. And here's where it gets worse... right now, people think it's close outside of Hue Jackson's circle. But this team struggles again in 2018 and goes 2-14 or 3-13? Will people still feel that way? Will the top free agent QB want to join up for this? Will other free agents? Gotta think about the long game here.
I think Sashi lost his job for one reason. We still don't have a quarterback. If he gets the paperwork through on the McCarron deal, and McCarron came over and resembled an NFL QB that led us to a few victories down the stretch, Sashi likely still has a job....When ya go 0-16 after 1-15, and the fans have a parade to mock the franchise, somebody is gettin fired.
I think Sashi got canned cause he sabotaged Hue's QB trade in order to keep his draft picks. And Hue apparently had Haslam's ear more than Sashi. Add in the fact that Haslam was getting antsy about being winless and the fans getting more vocal. Sashi's 3-4 year plan be damned, we just weren't winning. Personally I lay most of the blame on Hue getting Sashi canned since our owner has an itchy trigger finger. Hue "couldn't win with our horrible roster." That and Haslam probably was getting a lesson on the FO and drafting from others around the league who are more "in the know", who Haslam was probably chatting with. And add in that our FO was purely analytics guys (instead of old-school game film guys) and kept stockpiling picks instead of drafting that "savior" QB. Hopefully Dorsey and the new crew has more of Haslam's ear than Hue does. By keeping Hue, it signals to me that the coach is the impetus for the direction the team will head regarding players. If that's the case, the FO in Haslam's mind is a part that can be changed out and it's business as usual. Unfortunately, I believe, the FO and HC need to be on the same page or the 2-3 year "blow it up" cycle will start again.
No doubt here. Look at the direction we've gone with the front office after just 23 months experimenting with the "analytics" based approach.
Speaking of our unprecedented losing... I figured the Lions would be a nice comp since they are the only other team to go 0-16, but they did that coming off a 7-9 year, which is odd. Detroit was 10-36 in the three seasons culminating with 0-16. Our 4-44 record over the past three seasons is way worse than that. I actually looked at the Rams, who went 6-42 in three seasons before drafting Sam Bradford No. 1 overall. They went 3-13, 2-14, and 1-15 then grabbed their signal caller. In his rookie season, they went 7-9. Here's the major difference between those Rams and these Browns... The Rams were terrible at drafting. We can knock Sashi for missing on QBs - which is somewhat deserved - but all of this other picks are solid contributors at the very least with some looking like potential high-end NFL players. The Rams literally drafted busts and bums and then got their QB. Sure, the schedule is brutal in 2018, but we already have a good roster. All that's missing is a QB.
Can't really say he missed (completely). I don't think anybody truly thought there was a can't miss QB in the last few drafts. Add in the lack of roster depth we had and I have to at least give him props for filling some large holes the team had and getting a lot more picks in the process. Whatever QB we might have taken (by not trading down) was going to wind up being cannon fodder and Hue would've ruined him. As for letting all those vets walk, that's where I get a bit pissed. As it stands, Sashi set up the new FO to right this ship in the next few years should we not miss horribly on the draft picks and sign a serviceable FA QB until the rookie we draft learns from the bench for awhile.
Except for four other NFL GM's....The Rams, Eagles, Texans and Chiefs ALL went all in to get their QB in the last two seasons. You don't do that unless you believe 100% that this is gonna be the guy....They all gave up a lot to make their move. Sashi was afraid to pull the trigger...He was hoping to pull a diamond out of the rough with Kessler, and then he did it again with Kizer.... 1-31 speaks for itself. Sashi deserved to lose his job. The thing that doesn't make sense, is retaining Hue Jackson...
I'm not defending Hue in the least...The it's "all Hue's fault" argument just doesn't hold water to me, that's all. Again, I agree this CAN BE a great roster, but leave ginormous holes in key places and it doesn't matter at all.. I.E. QB roster of 3 guys, 0-wins, 8 starts to their names combined...The only "reasonable veteran" available was Cody Kessler who was 0-8 as a starter...in his Sophomore season. No viable free safety in Gregg Williams defense, one of the most important aspects of his scheme...they used retreads and guys not qualified to run it...only to move their rookie STRONG SAFETY there because he was the best available...Then cut your two veteran CBs in Haden and Williams...Tramon Williams had a top 10 type year...and Haden lost a step, however, he still would have been about the 3rd best CB on this team...Bad moves I disagree...I think Haslem consulted with a faction of outsiders and not only did he not "find" a QB, he let a veteran go that was having a good season at the time and I am certain that outsiders would point to the 0-fer due to lack of veteran players, even if they were middle roster players. The top half of our roster is above the normal line, the middle and lower tiers are way below acceptable, so when one of those players have to go in the game, the play drops dramatically. I think the "New Crew" does have Haslem's ear and quite honestly, I think they told Haslem the same thing other outsiders did..No coach would have been able to win with the roster as a whole. Starters are one thing, in the NFL you need a full roster of viable players. Cutting/waiving viable players, for no real reason hurts a roster, plain and simple. Again, I'm not saying Hue could win with the Patriots roster...I am simply speaking to the Browns roster makeup, not Hue Jackson's ability to coach. Game day proved he was not even treading water...he was WAY in over his head. If his coaching was any indication of how he swims, he better not go too far into Lake Erie..
Is Kizer Salvageable? It's something the F/O will have to determine over the course of the offseason. Film study gives you an easy answer: no. The circumstance and situation the Browns find themselves in - owning the #1 overall pick in a QB-rich draft gives you another easy answer: no. But another piece of the puzzle is the one we unceremoniously fired for a 1-26 record: analytics. It's tough to find QBs in similar situations to Kizer who performed as badly. Most NFL QBs these days who are drafted and start early have some success. I had to pour through the numbers but found 16 comparable QBs who were drafted in the first or second round in the past 20 years to post poor (Kizer-like) numbers as rookies. Many of the QBs are familiar: Matt Stafford, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, Jared Goff while othrs may not seem like it: Quincy Carter, Kyle Boller, Josh Freeman. In nearly 100% of cases, the QB improved from Year 1 to Year 2 - some dramatically. Average of Field: 11 games, 8.4 TDs, 13.3 INTs, 1,766 yards, 51.6 comp. %, 59.3 QB rating. Kizer's rookie line: 15 games, 11 TDs, 22 INTs, 2,894 yards, 53.6 comp. %, 60.5 QB rating No QB was anywhere close to as turnover prone as Kizer was. Only two QBs (Alex Smith, Ryan Leaf) posted worse TD:INT ratios. However, here's how the improvements looked into Year 2: Completion percentage: +11.4% QB rating: +29.3% Yardage: +30.2% TDs thrown: +78.6% INTs thrown: -9.0% Assuming Kizer did start the same number of games in 2018, he would finish the season projected as: TD: 20 INT: 20 Yards: 3,767 Completion %: 59.7 QB Rating: 78.2 You can see that the completion percentage would still fall below 60%. His 59.7 would be good for 27th in the NFL this season, edging out fellow rookie Mitch Trubisky (59.4). His 78.2 passer rating would be good for 28th this year, again beating Mitch Trubisky (77.5). TDs thrown would tie for 20th and INTs thrown would lead the league. Even at the highest levels of improvement shown (-34.4%), he'd finish with 15 INTs which would be tied for second. Kizer's closest comps in NFL history posted the following seasons: QB-a (Year 1): 16 games, 12 TDs, 21 INTs, 3,046 yards, 55.8 comp. %, 66.5 QB rating QB-a (Year 2): 14 games, 13 TDs, 13 INTs, 2,525 yards, 59.7 comp. %, 77.5 QB rating QB-b (Year 1): 15 games, 12 TDs, 20 INTs, 2,444 yards, 53.8 comp. %, 63.0 QB rating QB-b (Year 2): 16 games, 17 TDs, 13 INTs, 3,291 yards, 54.8 comp. %, 75.3 QB rating These were his two closest comps in the group, actually. Oddly enough, they were both QBs for the New York Jets. Spoiler: These Guys
If you're talking about playoff caliber consistent winning, then I agree....But surely we could have won some games had we not been so terrible at the QB position all year...You can't overcome how poorly Kizer played, and Kessler and Hogan were just as bad. It still boggles my mind that they let McCown go, given their situation. That decision alone is why we will be in the record books forever, along with the Lions, as the worst team of all time... we lost four games by a FG, and another by 4 points. We took the Titans and the Packers to OT....You don't think we could have won any of those games if we had the luxary of having a capable NFL QB on the roster? Of course we would have... I'm not saying we would have been battling for a playoff spot, but there's NO reason why we couldn't have had a season at least as good as the Jets. Which was a helluva lot more fun than Browns fans got to have...
What if we took the three highest improvement QBs from that group (Jared Goff, Josh Freeman, and Eli Manning)? What would Kizer's stats look like then? The trickiest part is the number of attempts Kizer had as a rookie -- it's not even close to any one else's - only David Carr (444), Geno Smith (443), Joey Harrington (429), and Blaine Gabbert (413) are in neighborhood. Of that group, only Harrington (554) threw more passes in Year 2. If Kizer moved at that same clip, it'd amount to 614 attempts which would lead the league. The other interesting note is most of those guys didn't experience a huge pick-up in completion percentage (10.8%). They averaged 52.7 as rookies (just under Kizer's mark of 53.6). Using these numbers, his completion percentage doesn't move as much as with the whole field. Projected: 16 games, 19 TDs, 9 INTs, 3,745 yards, 59.4 comp. %, 81.7 QB rating TDs: tied 19th INTs: tied 12th Yards: 11th Completion %: tied 27th QB Rating: tied 22nd So even if you think he's capable of Jared Goff (new coordinator), Eli Manning (bloodlines), or Josh Freeman (one-year wonder) type growth... he's still not cracking the Top 10 in any category and overall finishes as a below-average prospect.
Another question, however, is whether a rookie could post that same stat line. In its history, only five players have thrown for that amount of yardage as rookies - four first overall picks and one second overall pick (Manning, Luck, Newton, Winston, Wentz). Only two (Newton, Winston) beat that passer rating mark. Only two (Newton, Wentz) beat that mark for accuracy. So as painful as this might be to say, and since it's still early in the process... if you can expect astronomical growth out of Kizer, I think you actually could go into 2018 without a Cousins or Smith in your QB room. Sign a journeyman vet (Drew Stanton, Chase Daniels, Ryan Fitzpatrick, or Matt Moore) and put them between Kizer and the rookie. We "wasted" a second round pick on Kizer in 2017. Taking a flier on a guy like Smith would just be wasting another second rounder in 2018 and signing a guy like Cousins could cripple the team from a cap standpoint when it comes time to renew the rookies. #AnalyticsOutLoud
Interestingly enough, the Lions in 2008 had three QBs start for them with a combined 23 years of NFL experience. Jon Kitna (11), Daunte Culpepper (9), and Dan Orlovsky (3) couldn't manage a win with a team that the year before went 7-9. Kitna was 46-65 heading into that season, Culpepper was 41-49, and Orlovsky had never won an NFL game at that point.
Sashi f'd up the QB situation in Cleveland over the past two years. I think we can agree on that. That said: I appreciate him sabotaging the McCarron deal. He hung himself but kept his philosophy in tact, by not frittering away the draft we are about to enter. He's gone, but his legacy will live on based on how we come out of this draft, and IMO it will be a lot better than it would have been if we had done the McCarron deal. Having consciously chosen to forego QBs in two drafts, I assume he expected his Coach and Staff to be capable of chalking up a couple of wins this year. He was wrong, but still didn't sacrifice the team's future to appease a desperate coach, who was grasping at straws, and was more than willing to surrender the future for what would have been a couple of meaningless wins this year. Were we supposed to take "the QB guru's" word on McCarron? IMO his track record couldn't be worse, and thus, NO. Sashi hung himself to keep that ammo dry, and God bless him for that, at least. Dorsey is amassing his troops in the FO, and IMO will have a much stronger voice come draft time because of it. I truly don't understand how Hue gained so much influence over Slam. Please God, make it stop.
