Especially when you factor in the aspect of supply and demand in the specific instance of the Browns. The Chiefs will know they have Cleveland pretty much over a barrel and I imagine that Alex would have a limited say in any negotiations. The list of suitors will be larger than what people believe. For instance, Tom Coughlin wants a veteran quarterback in Jacksonville and Blake Bortles will still be in jeopardy of losing his job at the end of this season (almost certain if he fall flat in the playoffs). Jacksonville will have a pick somewhere after #21 in the first round. If they could make a move to get Smith by exchanging their first in 2018 and their third in 2019 for K.C.s third and Alex it may be enough to get the deal done. You could also see the Bills jump in. Giving up a mid round first in exchange for Alex and K.C.'s third would get the Bills their answer at quarterback and leave them with multiple picks in the third that could give them leverage to move up some in the second if a coveted player slides. The other one I would really watch is the Broncos. It's not that they would give up that high first round pick but they have two early second round selections to leverage in a deal. I'm sure Elway would rather take his chances on a veteran coming in to lead the way over a rookie. Now, with that being an inter-division deal that could push things back in favor slightly for Cleveland but it does show how much of a premium they might have to pay for Alex. The Browns early second probably won't be enough on it's own, so packaging that with future picks or possibly a player (would they part with Joe?) may be the only option other than moving a first.
The flip side, is he was coming off a solid season in San Francisco where he was replaced by his backup - Kaepernick - and they had greater success. In KC, he's playing at the highest level of his career and his backup - Mahomes - is wildly unproven. If he's traded, it will be somewhat ironic that his best stretches of play have preceded that. In 2012, he posted career highs in completion percentage, QB rating, and TD:INT ratio. In 2017, he posted career highs in QB rating and TD:INT ratio. Ultimately, I agree with @Lyman in that there's a very slim likelihood he's traded - and especially to Cleveland. Without us offering up a pick - possibly #4 overall - that would suit the requirements of adding "impact players" for them this offseason. They don't have a first rounder because of the Mahomes trade, so they may not be willing to part with anything less.
Is that unique to the user, or just an overall count? I feel like it's probably evenly split between two folks.
Plan A: Alex. He's the best option for the team. Sorry, I don't buy Kirk Cousins hype, I don't like him at $30 million a year, I don't think he's truly a franchise QB if Washington lets him walk, and I want to see the Browns actually take a shot at a franchise QB with that No. 1 overall pick. Plan B: Bradford. He's egotistical and an injury risk, but he's probably the best non-Cousins QB on the free agent market. He'll turn 31 during the 2018 season. He's not quite .500 as a starter (34-35-1). Plan C: Chase. As in, Chase Daniels. If we're drafting a 6005 QB at No. 1 overall, why not bring in another 6005 QB to make sure the scheme fits? Daniels only has two career starts but has apprenticed behind some very good NFL QBs and also has the relationship with Dorsey (he was brought in to be the backup in 2013. He'd turn 32 during the 2018 season. He's 1-1 in his career as a starter. Plan D: Drew. As in, Drew Stanton. The Cardinals backup has seen some game action recently and fared decently. He fits the mold perfectly of "bridge QB" and could be called upon to start the first handful of games until Baker Mayfield was ready to roll. The oldest of the bunch - he'll be 34 to start the 2018 season. He's 10-6 in his career as a starter.
All valid points...and I will add...everything depends on Mahomes growth in 2017. It isn't difficult to tell if a guy is NOT getting it in practice. It is much more difficult to tell if he is, at which point game film is the only way to evaluate. Struggles are much easier to gauge in practice. If he is still struggling, then I don't think there is a situation in which to make a trade... Now, all that said, some of what you are all bringing up begs the question...How much are you willing to give up for a one year contract. Forget for a moment the player and his accomplishments, but you are talking about a player that can come in and earn a paycheck for a year in order to get to his contract in the following off season. I know, I for one would rather have a player at #4 overall that I know will be here through the 2022 season, than the best QB in the NFL on a one year loan. I might give up Houston's second round pick, since I will be getting 3 other assets before that pick...but to give up what SHOULD essentially be a pro bowl caliber talent at #4...I won't do that
Lost in all this is the disturbingly and somehow impossible-seeming reality that Hue Jackson could be back for a third season. That thought fills me with dread and would loom like a giant black cloud over any positive QB decisions made in the offseason. Drafting Rosen over Mayfield I could eventually get over. Drafting Mayfield only to have Hue Jackson ruin his career akin to what he did with Kizer? Ugh.
Who's the head coach? Any Browns retread since Haslam took over and we go 10-6 with Alex Smith, a veteran wide receiver in free agency, and Minkah Fitzpatrick in the draft. With Hue Jackson, you could give me A.J. Green, Tom Brady, and Saquon Barkely at No. 1 overall and we're going 3-13 with Hue.
I don't think he ruined his career. He's gotten this far because he is a tremendous athlete with some throwing ability, but he's not really a "quarterback"...He can make plays here and there strictly because he's a superior athlete. When it comes to all the other things that QB's need, Kizer falls alarmingly short. He doesn't react naturally to the game because he doesn't have a clue 90% of the time. Real QB's don't have to look to the sideline at crunchtime. Real QB's know when to clock it. They know when you can't take a sack. They know when you must get out of bounds....These things are just processed naturally in the thinking of a real QB. Kizer isn't even close...Kizer is not a QB at this level. Players like Deshone Kizer can make it to the NFL on their gifted physical skill set, but they always hit the wall...It takes so much more than that. I'm not saying Deshone can't learn it, but it's obviously not instinctive with him, and he is SO far away from being an effective NFL QB at this point, I wouldn't blame Dorsey if they just said adios to Deshone this offseason...
You guys know how things go for this franchise. Assuming we did trade for Alex Smith, it would probably be about week #3 when his OG steps on him in practice and breaks his ankle. Our rookie isn't ready yet.... Do you really want to turn to Deshone Kizer?
I think we could have the perfect storm looming. What if the Browns trade Hue to the Queen City Kitties for a 2nd rounder, then flip the 2nd and future conditional 4th for Smith? I think I would need a new pair of pants for more than one reason.
I think Cousins' issues are more with Bruce Allen, Doug Williams and Dan Snyder. I would still be a bit surprised if he remains in Washington.
We'll have all off-season to properly postmortem Kizer, but here's my short take on it: Brian Kelly was correct, he needed 1-2 more years of college Perceived talent aside, he should have never been in a QB competition He should have never started a game in 2017 (see bullet #1) Kenny Britt should have never been the No. 1 wide receiver for the Cleveland Browns The NFL's best run-blocking offensive line the past two seasons should have, you know, had to work some The NFL's worst QB (and a historically bad one, at that) should not have been on the #1 passing attempts team The "respected" HC/OC with a "history of developing QBs" should have tailored a game plan even 2% to the rookie Lastly, once the redzone turnovers that plagued said QB continued through his season, acknowledgement of mistakes #1 - #7 above should have been made and said QB should not have seen the field again this season - roughly Week 8 on.
Still have a hard time believe a team lets a "franchise QB" walk - even if they have a strained relationship. Also, very rare chance here for the Browns fans who want Rosen - you get one contract out of him and maybe a franchise tag or two before he eventually forces his way out. That's what you get if/when he's drafted here.
The Redskins have very little leverage here. What's the pricetag for them if they tag him for the 3rd (?) straight year?
