Re: Baeker Mayfield a 10-6 Team in 2018... Adjusted Completion Percentage: 82.6% Wide Receiver Drop Percentage: 8.0% Passer Rating Under Pressure: 105.3 Passer Rating Deep Throws: 134.8 I repeat... if Mayfield measured 6'3" he'd already be signing the contract offered to him by Cleveland.
In some conversations I've been having over the past few days there seems to be a bit of consensus thinking as to how the National Championship game could shape the draft landscape for Baker Mayfield. Basically, if Oklahoma wins the championship and Baker plays well (doesn't need to set the world on fire, just not screw it up) then the 'thinking' goes that he probably is the #1 overall pick to the Browns. This opinion by most is based off of how recent memory in owners, G.M.s and coaches play a bigger role in the draft than what people typically notice. After watching DeShaun Watson go bananas to start his career it may have a long enough lasting impression to sway standard thinking when it comes to Mayfield. There are enough similarities in situation (separate from game play/style) for people to take notice. Mayfield will have detractors throughout the draft process, the same as Watson did. If Baker were to win college football's title game, like Watson did, will it be enough to convince Dorsey that he's the guy? Then there's the other side of the coin. If Mayfield were to up-chuck a title chance, does that kill his opportunity to be taken with that first pick? The consensus is 'yes', Baker would most certainly drop down a couple notches. It's an interesting discussion and one that I believe holds some merit.
If they are serious about getting players this off season, I will be in utter shock if they start out 0-5 next year. Now, if it's "stay the course" same old bullshit, I don't think I'll care if he gets fired or not...I will be one of the fans that says "call me when Haslem sells the team". Friction nothing...I don't want Hue to have anything to do with the offense. He doesn't have anything to do with the defense, why should he have his finger on the offense? He's the HC, he needs to manage all the moving parts within the coaching system and manage game days...THAT IS ALL. If he feels there will be friction, then resign. Could be right, I might be way off base here, but Hue is over his head and someone needs to step in and take control of the situation...or do exactly what you have suggested and fire him. Regardless of who is HC, I want a separate OC that actually runs the offense. Not a figure head that doesn't really do much on that front.
Some more Sig. Stats... Mayfield/Jackson/Rosen Dropped Passes: 28 / 34 / 34 Drop Rate: 8.0 / 8.5 / 7.5 Drop Backs: 394 / 474/ 489 Attempts: 348 / 400 / 453 Batted Passes: 2 / 7 / 9 Adjusted Completion: 82.6 / 73.1 / 74.4 Adj. YPA: 12.5 / 8.7 / 8.2 Adj. YPC: 17.5 / 14.5 / 13.1 Rat v. Blitz: 140.7 / 110.9 / 108.8 Rat v. Pressure: 112.3 / 93.4 / 75.9 Rat Deep: 133.1 / 110.9 / 102.1 Rat Short: 136.0 / 105.1 / 88.4 Numbers for Rosen really surprised me. Projection-wise, Jackson > Rosen.
I will say he is currently climbing onto the biggest stage of his career and what he does with the performance can most certainly shape the beginning of that next stage. IF he plays lights out and LEADS the Sooners to a Championship. I would believe that might solidify some feelings scouts and GMs around league have about him. I don't think it should decide whether he is chosen #1 overall or fall to the 3rd round of the draft. He is the best Quarter Back prospect in this draft. I'm not talking about the size, shape and expectations of a prototypical QB. I am talking about his talent to be a QB and lead at the next level. It really isn't close either. That said, if he comes out and throws 3 horrible decision picks against the Bulldogs, that will put a huge damper on his chances to go #1 overall...On the other hand, if he single handily takes Georgia's defense apart and methodically leads scoring drive after scoring drive, then I believe you will see an exodus of talking heads jumping on his bandwagon even before the National Championship game is played. They always want to be the first on record...Then if he does it again in the Championship game, then yes the buzz will be about as loud as anyone can imagine which in turn could vault him to the very top. My contention in all of this is...He is already considered to be there by the people that actually matter in inner circles. His body of work is there to sift through and it is better than any other prospect in this draft..before any bowl game is played. So in the grand scheme of things, yes, he can influence a rise and fall with the two games to come...I just don't think it is as big a chasm as some would indicate. I think Baker Mayfield today is somewhere between #1 overall and #15 overall on nearly everyone's list in professional offices. That will become more apparent in the coming weeks as the Big Boards begin to be influenced more and more by sources molding those boards. At the end of the day, if the Browns take a QB #1 overall, I believe TODAY, Baker Mayfield will be that QB.
You and I have had many discussions on quarterbacks throughout the years and we rarely come to an agreement. I think we are closer this year than we have been in years past, but even though I'm on the record with the belief that Baker would be a first round pick (going all the way back to the end of the 2016 collegiate season) and a potential top 10 overall, I'm still sorting through my draft profiles and he currently is not my #1 ranked QB for this class. Right now, Mason Rudolph has the top spot. There's lots of time and scouting left before the draft for us to discuss it and I may end up agreeing with you by the time I'm done. I don't see a scenario where he falls out of the first. I don't believe that to be confirmed to any degree at this point. In fact, I think the questions about Baker are just as loud, or possibly louder than what they were for Watson at this point in the process. Stigmas within scouting methodology aren't easily pushed aside and he is still polarizing enough in his game play and physical build that when he goes under the microscope after the college playoffs he could see his stock drift either way very rapidly. That's the biggest reason the N.C. game could have a profound impact on his stock. He could ride the high of a victory or feel the sting of a loss throughout the entire process.
The only thing that will allow Mayfield to drop out of the first is an off the field dumb ass attack. If that happens, I will be the first to jump off his band wagon.
I don't disagree with the assessment, I just think it's a silly standard. Like @IrishDawg42 said... if he's the best at his position, bowl performance shouldn't make a major shift happen to end the season. Josh Rosen and the UCLA Bruins isn't in the CFB Playoffs... he's not playing for any draft position (and may not play due to concussions - yikes). Mayfield, by virtue of being an elite college quarterback and leading his team to a 12-1 record against the toughest schedule in BCS this season now has to play one or two of the toughest teams in college... and if he has a single stumble along the way? Well, he shouldn't have been considered #1 overall anyhow - Twitter scouts. Baker's winning percentage is .830 in his career. He's the most efficient passer in NCAA history. He's the third-most accurate passer in NCAA history. He's a Heisman trophy winner. He's got the arm. He's got the mental make-up. He's got the mobility. If you put Mayfield's resume and attributes into a 6'3" - hell, 6'2" frame - and he's the best QB prospect possibly ever.
It is, but recent impressions always hold some sway on draft day. If you just take a quick glance at some drafts in consecutive order you will find some obvious trends based on the previous league year and the previous draft class. I think it's even more prevalent with the old skool type of scout. Old habits are hard to break, and reacting to the immediate past instead of being pro-active to the immediate future is a regular. I think in some circles he is regardless of size, in some others he is because of that winning percentage and in some others he is because of the recent love for analytics. Then you have his detractors that would hate on him even if he was 6'4", 235 pounds with an arm that made the ball pop like Warren Moon's. College numbers can be tricky. Sometimes they paint a really clear and accurate picture of the player. Sometimes they make a mirage of what they might be as a pro. I see some things from Baker that I know will transfer well to the next level. I see some other things that I'm not sold on as being assets and there are still some others that I have yet to breakdown. Still early in the process, I see a player that can become a competent pro and a decade or more starter in the league. I can also say that about 3 other passers coming out this year and there are 4 more that are right on the edge of that same statement.
I agree with the whole statement Tim, but focusing on this last part, I am in the same boat. I see some things that make me go, wow this guy is going to flow right into the pros with relative ease, then you turn on another game and it's like..well, I see some things I like, but if these are "habits" that can't be broken, he will struggle mightily. The fact they aren't present in all games makes me believe he will overcome them at the next level with better coaching. After a quick fly by on the QBs, I really didn't want one at all in this draft. I then turned my focus on Kirk Cousins and getting him at all costs. Then I had the realization that most likely a QB is going to be drafted #1 overall, so I started digging deeper. Although I have not yet had the time to dive in with both feet like I normally do this time of year, it became apparent to me with each players film I watched that Mayfield is definitely ahead of the pack in too many aspects to ignore. So much so, that I pushed aside the flag on the Block O in Columbus, the crotch grab and yes, the public intoxication incident. These are immature issues, and to my knowledge, there haven't been any other incidents to speak of especially on the level of Manziel. I can handle cocky, in fact you want a little bit of that in your QB. Brett Favre was my favorite NFL player of all time even though I am a Browns fan and he was one of the cockiest people you would ever meet. His teammates would run through a wall for him though! And from what I see at Oklahoma, Baker's teammates feel the same about him. He "seems like" the type of guy that will come into a locker room and embrace someone like Kizer and say, "buddy, we are going to be the best 1-2 QB tandem in this league regardless of which one of us are starting". Then turn around and make fun of Ben Roethlisberger's past issues off the field on Twitter. I love my Golden Domers and my Buckeyes...when he planted the flag, I said that was a punk I would NEVER want the Browns to draft...well, he has won me over doing my research. The fact that he is possibly the best football player in this draft is an added bonus. If the Browns are determined to take a QB #1 overall, it better be Baker Mayfield and they better trade for Alex Smith to give these young guys someone to learn from and a cushion from stepping on the field too early. It isn't too late to save DeShone Kizer's career, but if they bring in another rookie and ask Kizer to be the man to start the season, his career may be ruined before it ever begins. I know you are saying there are 3 others that could be 10 year starters in the league, and I agree...However, the questions I have on the other players (in my mind) are much larger than the one's I have about Mayfield. Now, if you want to go get Alex Smith to be your starter for the next 5-6 years, then that is another topic all together and we can change gears to other positions at that point and concentrate on grooming Kizer to take over in a couple of years, which I truly believe is a worthy endeavor...But, I still think short term AND long term, Baker Mayfield is a better bet than any other scenario for this team.
All good points, Irish and Tim. I'm still in the double down mind set. Not so much with Alex Smith but definately with Kirk Cousins - and - Baker Mayfield. Fix the QB problem once and for all!
I don't disagree Lym, it's the difference in investment. You know what you are getting with Cousins. So you are investing for the very long term. So much so, that drafting a QB #1 would be inefficient. He might get to free agency before he ever plays a down (Cousins hasn't missed a game since taking on the starter role). So to take away another weapon to help the team win, that you hope will never play during his rookie contract, would be extremely detrimental to the team over the next 5 years. I say this because I believe you will need to draft Mayfield with one of the first two picks to get him. I disagree wholeheartedly with those saying he is a second round prospect..in fact I will be shocked if he makes it out of the top ten, and surprised if he isn't the first or second overall pick. With Cousins, you are talking about a 5 year $150M contract, you don't bench that player for a draft prospect... With Alex Smith, you are getting a player capable of running an offense so efficiently he can get you to the Super Bowl...but at 33, he isn't your very long term answer..more likely 3-4 years and you will need to replace him...but his contract won't dictate that you couldn't replace him after 2 seasons with a star draft prospect from the 2018 or 2017 draft. It's economics and expectations... In order to get Cousins, I think you need to offer a 5 year deal, the rookie will also be on a de facto 5 year deal if taken in the first round...they will both hit free agency at the same time AND that 5th year you will be investing heavily in the 2018 rookie option year. With Smith, you trade for his one year contract, while having the option to extend him by 2-3 years on a contract that will make everyone happy. The investment won't interfere with either Kizer or Mayfield entering their respected free agency periods. If you sign him to a 3 year extension, you have him for 4 years, but after 3 years you SHOULD know whether Kizer is going to be the future. If he is, then the contract should be friendly enough to move Smith to another team, giving Kizer the contract he needs to keep him here...if he isn't the answer, then you bid him farewell and have Mayfield ready to take the reigns as early as 2019 (if he's exceptional in picking up the offense and getting to professional speed, or as late as 2021 when Smith's contract ends. You would still have a year left on Mayfield's rookie deal to decide whether he is able to take over...and with Kizer leaving, you would also have the option of drafting another QB in 3 years in case he isn't.
Gotta go with @TopDawg on this one... signing Kirk Cousins and drafting Mayfield - or Rosen - is counter-productive. For argument's sake, let's ignore the inherent disadvantages Cleveland has in the Cousins sweepstakes. If you do land the premier free agent QB, you do so at the largest contract in NFL history. Cousins is on the older side - he'll be 30 to start the 2018 season (Alex Smith will be 33) with only six seasons of experience (and only three of those as a starter). While there's a chance the deal could be his last one, it's probably in the 5-6 year range. John Dorsey claims we're going to win the AFC North. That we're going to be competitive. If that's the truth, the Browns are going to be best-served trading out of No. 1 overall to a team who needs to jump the Giants and get Rosen. Then, load up the team with immediate contributors to Cousins in the running and passing game to be competitive. So the question we need to address is: can the Browns immediately win 8+ with the current 0-14 team? How close is the defense? The offense is a complete nightmare to try and evaluate, so it's tough to project there. David Njoku, Seth DeValve, and Duke Johnson Jr. all seem like quality players. Josh Gordon, if he's clean, is one of the premier receiver talents in the NFL. The offensive line - outside of center - is one of the best in the league, and that's without HOF'er Joe Thomas. However, the gaping issues at receiver and quarterback give us a very murky outlook on that side of the ball.
Obviously a Baker-bro, let's let's #realtalk this for a second. Does anyone think, if he were eligible, that Johnny Manziel would have gone to the Senior Bowl? Josh Rosen? Sam Darnold? Deshaun Watson didn't even attend his year. This dude (Mayfield) has never shied away from a challenge. He's walked on to two NCAA programs and beat out the incumbent starter for the job. He was the Big 12 Freshman of the Year at Texas Tech which still didn't earn him the starting job for the next season from his coach - so he transferred (without telling Oklahoma coaches), sat out his year, walked on, and won the job. He's the best passer in the NCAA today - one of the best of all time. Imagine being the best employee at your job, but they keep giving the promotions and fun projects to the guy who's 6'4" because you're 6'1" - and despite you grinding harder than almost anyone else out there.
