It sure came across as you indicating there was some benefit to our organization when we passed on Wentz...I'm over it.
You'll get one eventually. I'm not too sure on this year's QBs though. Lots of QBs with a round 2-4 grade though. Do any truly have a 1st round grade? I don't know. I know it was said about last year but before the draft I certainly felt all 3 of the QBs taken in Round 1 were 1st round talents, with Watson being a risk based on style but reward on talent. I had Trubisky at 1 (still do until further notice) and the next 2 pretty much neck and neck. I don't believe my next QB after those 3 graded out any earlier than the late 3rd. It may have been Peterman or Webb. I can't remember. This year may be the opposite when the dust settles. No real round 1 QBs unless a team reaches before someone else can like the Bills did with EJ Manuel, but a ton of options in the next few rounds. Those can be successful but it's a ton of risk in picking out the best guy in a group like that, especially if you feel like you have to take 1 #1. That being said it's early and at least 1 QB will likely show they are in contention for an early pick. It's just that right now I'm not too stoked about the QB situation if I need to pick one early. I'd love it as a team that needs a backup or project though.
This is going to be a class all about professional projection and little about statistics at the college level. Someone is taking Josh Allen early in the first round. Someone is taking Josh Rosen early in the first round. After that, it will all be about the hype that gets built around some of these guys but the need at the position this season may be such a driving factor that we see a year where quarterbacks like Ponder, Gabbert and Locker pushed up in the first. A minimum of two are locked into the first, but it's not outside the realm of possibility that 5 could get called on day one.
That's what I am thinking too. Question is are they gonna be worth it? Right now I have those two as my top QBs and they do have 1st round grades. But it's very early in the process.
Another thing. It drives me nuts how some teams only look at one or the other. Hackenberg was all projection on apparent skills due to his body. Not his brain or college (anti)growth. Manziel was all about his college success and hype from his personality. I find that many teams don't understand how to balance it or when to prioritize what on which QB.
Lack of objectivity is still a thing in the draft and it's an interesting look at stubbornness given all of the tools available to create projections. It's OK to have some bias, but to have that bias be the determining factor rather than a part of a greater sum makes no sense.
Would you guys say that some "experts" are susceptible to regional bias as well? You'd think as a progressing expert, you'd lose those shackles. Media hype is definitely a factor.
Yep, regional bias is a big thing and specific school bias is also an obvious trend. I'll take the media hype one step farther - GMs are actually bullied into corners on a certain level by how the media hypes and grades players. If a general manager is in an unstable situation and doesn't take the player that everyone in the analyst world loves, and then that player is a stud year one? Yeah, an owner with a quick trigger can open the door with one hand, stick his foot in the way, then shove with the other hand making sure to trip his ex-employee right out the door and onto his face. I honestly believe that there have been times that managers and owners have taken players out of fear of being wrong when they disagree with the organized idiocy we see every draft.
Not sure. Well, there could have been bias with Kizer. I wonder if they really graded him where they got him or fell for the media and hype not long before and just took the chance with all their picks. OR wanted to please the fans with a QB many thought was a good player just months before or from Toledo. I personally thought it was a waste since I think he's similar to Hackenberg. But the Hack was undraftable for me, Kizer still had a later-round grade. Now that's just me. I don't know what the Browns were thinking this time. I just hope they weren't thinking of fan pressure.
In the weeks leading up to the 2018 Draft, most people were still asking the question, "is Deshaun Watson a second round prospect"? It's only been a small sampling of games, but those people look silly now. For me, Mayfield is this season's Watson. We can knock his height, arm strength, offensive system, etc. All he does is make plays. Likewise, I would be taking Lamar Jackson over Josh Allen 25/8.
The problem is that ownership easily forgets when THEY are wrong about listening to the media. They will "ask" about a player, maybe even pine for him, then when said player is passed on and he doesn't come out of the gate quickly, their "passion" for that player fades away like dust in the wind. Then the next year, they will fall in love with one and he might come out quickly and that is when the "I told you so's" start being thrown into the face of player acquisition personnel. They don't remember the 5 failed players, only the 1 that made the decision to pass on him bad...even if that player didn't fit their team's scheme. Owners shield themselves because they aren't culpable for their decisions.
Interesting to hear the media now that it's turned on Kizer for the most part. When he was drafted, it was a great pick because he fit what Hue Jackson liked to do and gave him the QB he could build for the franchise. Now, the F/O should never have drafted him and it's clear they "forced" him on the coach. What? Analytics say to avoid DeShone Kizer 1000%. A "qualified football guy" who drools over prototypically-sized quarterbacks with strong arms would give him a first round grade and demand he be drafted. We don't know unless or until this experiment completely goes up in flames and the finger-pointing begins, but I have to believe they gave Hue Jackson a QB he thought he could develop.
I think bias plays a big role. I don't know if anyone is immune. I had Deshaun Watson as the clear #1 QB, even though I had a second round grade on him, but then I had DeShone Kizer as the #2 behind him (My Notre Dame bias in the fact that I watched him every week, I would say absolutely influenced my view of him)...then everyone else. I didn't think any other QB were close to the two "De-shawns". I'm still not sold on any of them having prolonged success, but Watson sure looks good right now making plays, even if he is making rookie mistakes along side those plays. I'm also not convinced Kizer is a bust after less than a half season of seasoning. He needs a full off season to make some strides toward becoming a veteran/pro. Kizer is a 3 year guy, he never was going to simply come out and be a top 5 guy right away. Time will always tell, but in this New NFL, they aren't given much of a chance to grow and learn before being discarded for the next hopeful.
Analytics doesn't stop at stat lines in sports...They take into account the analytics for arm strength, height/weight, etc. I don't think Kizer "analytically" speaking grades out as low as many of you do. Now, JUST using his stats from college, then yes, I agree...but it goes so much deeper than that.
Notable quarterbacks taken by "analytics" in recent history include - Cody Kessler, Teddy Bridgewater - both knocked extensively by "football guys" for their lack of arm strength. Arm strength is a football-driven tool, not analytics. SPARQ is a pretty good analytic tool that takes measurables into account. Kizer is below Kessler and Hogan and was about average in the 2017 draft class. The "other" Deshaun was #3. A pretty basic metric, regardless of "traditional football" or "analytics" is 24 starts - at a minimum. Kizer did not hit that benchmark. Another basic, regardless of the approach, is bowl game appearances and wins. Kizer did not hit that benchmark. A winning composite score is a very analytic-driven metric that goes back to high school. Kizer's composite score matches the profile of a quarterback who's out of the NFL by season four.
@IrishDawg42 ... TBH, the Browns coaxing Arians into the head coaching job could be the best thing to happen to DeShone Kizer.
