2017 Season The Good, Bad and Ugly

Cause these stats are bogus.....u dont want to listen

 

I want someone to point to me the successful teams that have made statistical analytics the core of their operation. Go ahead, I'll wait.

I've seen more GM's than I can count point to numbers, and try to use them to justify one move or another. I've then seen those GM's fired, shortly thereafter. I'm not saying using statistics is a bad idea - it certainly isn't. But knowing what's subjective, knowing what's actually helpful, knowing that they're used to review, not to predict... If you get too deep into these things, it doesn't work out.

The great Bears GM Phil Emery once said, "I love PFF. I use them for all of our analyses". Oh, don't know who Phil Emery is? Look him up. ... Yeah, that guy.

 

I had Deshaun #2 right behind Trubisky.

However, I had them not taking a QB at all - maybe Dobbs in the third/fourth.

I legitimately believed the organization and head coach when they said Cody Kessler was "everything" you want in a QB and someone they were going to build around.

I legitimately believed in The Plan - that they needed to continue the build the roster and once the time was right, if Cody K. hadn't ascended to the next level, make a move in the draft (like the Rams, Eagles, Texans, and Chiefs have done) to grab "the guy" to take the ball club to the next level.

I legitimately believed that was still The Plan when they took Kizer. Deeply-flawed and unpolished, sitting for three seasons behind Cody K. would do him well. He'd get to work intimately with an (alleged) "QB whisperer" and great QB coach while working on those things that made him a second round pick to begin with. That we'd maybe saved ourselves the headache of having to surrender a bevvy of draft picks because "the guy" was waiting in the wings.

And I legitimately believed Hue Jackson when he said Kizer was ready.

Obviously, I was dead-ass wrong to believe.

 

All teams in the NFL use statistical analytics, however, the Browns are the first to use it as the core of their operation, so we will need to play out this experiment to give you an answer...so you may be waiting awhile..grab a keg and a box of cigars.

What you are talking about is GMs using the statistics as excuses to making a decision. No one really knows what the determining factor was in making the decision, but the Browns are the first to be outright in using these analytics as their base point. Maybe it has happened behind closed doors, no one would admit it if they tried and failed. I don't really believe it has been done to the extent the Browns are using it now though. I am actually impressed with the last two drafts they have put together. The theory of more is more, well I can't disagree with it. The average draft produces about two starters, that's a team with 7 draft picks...If you have 14, then it does warrant consideration that you should end up with 4 starters out of the group...When going this route, cutting a player after 2 years really isn't nearly as much as a loss as cutting him out of a group of 7. Teams tend to hold on to their draft picks to give them EVERY opportunity to develop, simply because they don't have enough bodies to replace them without dipping into the salary cap money for free agents.

2016 Draft produced starters:
Corey Coleman(when healthy)
Emmanuel Ogbah has been successful in his second year
Shon Coleman - Juries out, he has shown growth while starting, but must cut down on penalties to be considered a success
Joe Schobert - has been successful in his second year, in replacement of Jamie Collins, but a step below Collins in my opinion
Derrick Kindred - has been one of the top rated run stopping safeties in the NFL
Rashard Higgins - meh, he needs to be upgraded, starting out of necessity. Would be fine depth.
None of these players stepped up year one, so I will hold the 2017 class to evaluation into the 2018 season...but there are already names looking like they will be future starters and high contributors.

This is the long play, drafting 10+ players every single year, until your base roster is worthy will take about 4 years. Problem I have with it is the fact THEY ARE STILL ALLOWED to supplement with those free agents in the mean time to put a product on the field that can win...Their analytics have failed thus far...A) because they started in year two, thus putting them further behind. They did finally spend in 2017 and they chose the analytically correct pick in Kenny Britt who has not produced as expected..This slow play should start showing dividends in 2018 and especially in 2019....If this regime lasts that long, and I personally hope they do.

 

These draft picks need to start making more impact plays....I havn't seen a difference maker yet

 

So, 2 sacks in a debut of 19 plays isn't impact? Tough crowd...

 

David Njoku catches a touchdown pass 33% of the time.

Larry Ogunjobi is the #5 run-stopping interior lineman in the NFL, on a list which includes J.J. Watt.

Briean Boddy-Calhoun (undrafted) is the #11 overall cornerback in the NFL. Averages a league-best 2.7 yards allowed per target.

 

Your guy, Derek Barnett, has five tackles and zero sacks through five games.

Your guy, Davlin Cook, started off hot but just tore his ACL. And did not come close to matching the production of my guy, Kareem Hunt.

Your guy, DeMarcus Walker, has yet to record a stat through four games. Larry Ogunjobi is the #5 run-stuffing interior lineman in the NFL.

Your guy, Mitch Trubisky, completed 48% of his passes and posted a QB rating of 60.1 in his debut. Better than Kizer overall, yes, but not than Kizer's first start (66.7% and 85.7 rating).

Ugh... you see that? I'm defending DeShone Kizer because of you!

#Gross

 

My guy Barnett is playing for the Eagles(4-1) and playing behind Vinny Curry and Brandon Graham...2 solid established DE's in the NFL
Walker was drafted on Denver who has a top 5 defense
Trubisky has just as bad or worse WRs than the Browns and made some legit throws....made a costly TO late, but has pocket presence and will improve
Cook was a legit 3 down RB
Heres the difference....nobody is afraid of Njoku, Ogunjobi and Calhoun and setting a game plan to avoid these guys or stop them....you can bet teams are talking bout Von Miller in the film room, Gronk at TE, Aaron Donald etc...I keep saying those stats are meaningless

 

Not really...depends when they happen...4th Q and the Jets are driving to tie game then its an impact play

 

2. Sacks. In. 19. Snaps.

The record in a season is 22.5. By a 29 year old future Hall of Famer. Myles is 21 and making his first pro appearance.

But I get it, they're playing from behind so it's just a sack and not A SACK.

 

Good


#ItsNotTheTalent

Good
@showstopper

 

Ok lets make crazy projections.....he will have 50 sacks after this season based on those 19 snaps

 

Ya and through 5 games all we heard is they cant run the ball....the only stat that matters is the W column and L column.....you keep trying to make points w PFF rankings...nobody really cares bout those stats...Im sure TD would rather rank last in every stat column but somehow be 5-0 instead of 0-5

 

I bet, with that line and the addition of Saquon Barkley they could run the damn ball...As long as Hue gives up the play calling...

 

There's only one team at 5-0 right now.

They have...

• #2 QB
• #1 RB
• #2 TE
• #6 WR
• #15 OLB
• #10 DI
• #11 DT

But sure, I bet they'd be 5-0 if all those guys weren't some of the best at their position this season.

 

Saquon Barkley with this offensive line would make Kareem Hunt look like Dalvin Cook.

 

My buddy who coaches w me at Euclid was at the Cincy game sitting in the dog pound....he said from behind the play there was absolutely no where to go w the run game....thats why Crowell was stopping and dancing all game....you guys think this OL is great cause they have Thomas(finesse), Bitonio, Zeitler etc....they havnt had a run game in 5 games and you guys are blaming the RBs? Barkley is having enough problems in half of his games at Penn St let alone coming in and taking over the NFL

 

Thx Andy Reid....maybe OL stats are overrated then since not one guy is listed

 

Irish, you make a great case for the FO, having used their "analytics" very effectively to procure talent, and I fully agree. We can quibble about this pick and that, but their overall approach of collecting and applying draft choices, is working.

The hole in their evaluation, IMO, lies in the weight they give to continuity and veteran leadership / stability. We have seen too many guys go, who we could have kept, negating the need to "fill in" so many times. I won't do the list, but there is no doubt, we would be further along if we had hung onto a few of those, we allowed to walk

That said, are we satisfied with the way those picks are developed? It strikes me that the FO has in large measure done what they are supposed to do, with the exception of the vets they let walk, but it feels like we cannot or choose not to target "winning", so much as positioning ourselves for draft day.

I believe we have the talent to win on Sundays, but make poor coaching decisions in personnel, play calling, and strategy, an game day. It reminds me of the "Plan" to let Kessler start, and allow Kizer to develope, then tossing that aside, and rolling the dice. I'm pretty sure Hue isn't "planning" not to run the ball, and wants Duke more involved, but it seems the slightest adversity puts us in panic, and throws the weight onto our most unproven player, Kizer, along with our least accomplished position players, the WRs to win the game for us. Let's not even talk about our kicker.

I think what's happening now is at least partly due to the recognition that Kizer is "losing" games, all of them, and it is unsustainable to keep trotting him out there, or they will lose the team and the fans. If Kizer was showing progress, it would be OK, but what progress he has shown (less sacks), isn't enough, especially when your backup, has consistently shown that he can move the chains and put up points with the same personnel.

Hogan may collapse, once he has the job, and defenses plan for him, but he, mush like McCown and Kessler, manages the team better, and the steadiness he shows, has allowed others to succeed. That isn't by accident, it's what we came into the season expecting: a stable, if unspectacular, starter who would hold the reins, while our savior learns and develops. That was Kessler in a nutshell. THE PLAN.

Exercising that plan will allow the talent we "have" accumulated to have a chance to grow, and compete. "Yes there is talent in Cleveland, Virginia", and the FO has placed it there. Now what can the staff do with it?