Patrick Mahomes - Bears First Round Pick?

As we know, there is a consensus #1 best player in this years draft: Myles Garret. He was the best player coming out and has impressed even more after (combine, etc..).

The rumors are the Browns are eyeing to take him #1, and then draft a QB with their #12 pick.

With the 49ers snatching both Barkley and Hoyer, they are likely to take a QB (although if Garett is there, they will surely take him).

In both scenarios, either one of Trubisky or Watson should be there when the Bears draft. I will be happy taking a flyer on either. (I am not sold on Kizer). The Bears have spent time with all 3. And as Patg note, the Bears sent a whole contingency down to watch Watson's Pro-day.


With that, there are also discussion that have emerged since we brought in Glennon (naming him the starter and paying him starer $) that drafting a QB at #3 may not be in the cards.

Pace might trade down from #3 overall and grab more picks, AND still grab a QB that can sit on the bench and learn.

That guy and a QB the Bears have spent a lot of time with is Texas Tech's Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is coming off a huge season that saw him lead the FBS in passing yards (5,052) and total touchdowns (53) - 41 were passing. (10 ints). He's 6-3, 230 lbs and has been dubbed the "Texas Gunslinger".

Hes' been described as a the most polarizing player coming out this year. What I've seen: Huge arm, very accurate, great foot speed, incredibly fast release, decent (not great decision making) and... absolutely horrendous mechanics.


From one scouting report:

Inconsistent mechanics, but what cannot be doubted is Mahomes? ability to throw the ball accurately and on time without proper form or technique. He gets it done ? I saw numerous slant routes thrown with just his wrist, he?s a magician.

From NFL.com:

"He's got a great arm, big balls and he's mobile. He is going to drive his head coach crazy for the first couple of years and there is no getting around that. If it clicks for him and he's coachable, I think he could become a special quarterback." - NFC executive



Check this out:

http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/col...patrick-mahomes-throw-football-65-yards-knees


Now, I know what many are thinking. We just got rid of a big-armed gun-slinging QB who has piss poor mechanics. True.

But, he's very different that Jay. First, I think he actually has a stronger arm. Second, he's much more accurate. He throws the slant, he throws on time, he throws to a spot. He plays in a spread (which is also a negative), but in that offense, he has to be able to make every throw. The knock on Jay (among many) is that he has the arm to make every throw, but can't make them. Mahomes can AND does.

The other thing I noticed, he goes through his progressions well and rarely locks on a receiver.


Here's his highlight reel:

[video]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JyXS9nD350s[/video]


Now, I'm in no way advocating using our #3 pick on him. And I'm not advocating trading down. I want Watson or Trubisky if they are there.

However, if we (Pace) decides to trade down to say 12-15, and pick up a few more draft picks, this is the QB who will be there. Draft "experts" having him going anywhere from 10 to mid second round.


Again, he comes with a lot of risk. The two big issues with him are h plays in a spread and will have to transition to a pro-set offense - and he he has (incredibly) poor mechanics....


But at 21, and playing (learning) from the bench for at least a year, I think this kid could be special if coached the right way.

 

I'd be perfectly happy to pick up Mahomes if we are able to trade down.

I have been banging the drum on trading up back into the first round to get him, but thats only because I dont see us moving our pick to be very likely at all unless some team falls in love with Fournette and wants to jump. If Pace can manage a fair trade out of #3 overall than that would be a dream scenario.

I Like your analysis on mahomes, and I think he'd be the perfect type of guy to get to sit for a year to learn an offense.

He is probably my favorite after the "big 3"

 

He'd be a potentially good selection if they traded down.

 

I absolutely detest the thought of trading down. Nothing says you don't trust your own scouts more like trading down. It's a horseshit, pussy tactic unless you're in a special type position.

Like drafting with a top pick. In the top 3, the bears are lucky enough to possibly be in the conversation if a guy falls. Now full disclosure--if Myles Garrett falls to 3 and the bears trade down, and Garrett goes on to be the next Von Miller, Mack, or Ware type edge--I officially quit this team. I don't care if they get 2 1st rounders back.

But I'm not that stubborn. If another team grades a guy at 3 and they HAVE to have him. You certainly have to entertain the offer. You pull the trigger if they meet your needs.

The bears are in a position of strength. They hold the upper hand in negotiations. If Pace actively goes looking to trade down, he loses his leverage, which means a shitty return. Thats when he should be shot. Like

There are more than enough potential playmakers at 3 to pass on trading down. Unless something medically happens to Solomon Thomas, Jamal Adams, Deshaun Watson, or Trubusky (the 4 guys right now on my big board at 3), the bears should keep their pick and take their best. IMO it's Thomas. Then Adams, then Watson.

I like the heck out of Thomas right now. More than Watson. I'm down on Allen. Arthritis and labrum issues in shoulders I'm down on.

Mahomes interests me--but I agree that he's gonna piss of a coach with his legs and inability to slide. I hope he doesn't go full RG3.

 

The Bears should (easily) have at least 2 guys they want at #3. In my book, Watson and Garrett are the no-brainers. if one of them is there, you HAVE to take him.

Trubisky is also right there for me. But I know he's a question mark for some.

So play this out. Trubs is there, Watson is there, Garett is gone and Kizer is gone (49ers reportedly are creaming their pants for him).

You know that Jags are sticking with Bortles. You also know that the Titans are sticking with Mariotta... Neither is taking a QB.

Now, Peppers and Jon Allen are also on the board and you know BOTH of those teams are interested in both. Jags are in desperate need for a pass rusher. An the Titans biggest need is a DB.

And here's the thing. Having already "named" our starer (Glennon) both teams also know we need a DL and a CB and are looking at both of these guys.

I, without even a second of hesitation trade down on my #3 pick for either one of those teams to also grab their second rounder.

 

Not so sure the jags need a pass rusher. They love Fournette. Plus they paid the hell out of Malik Jackson last year and just overpaid for Calais Campbell about a week ago. I'd be shocked if Allen is their top choice.

If it goes Garrett and then Kizer like you propose--give me Solomon Thomas. Done.

Also Peppers has dropped off. Hooker, Adams, and probably Buddha Baker go before him at S.

 

IF they can trade down to the high quarter of the draft, they can also possibly get another draft pick in the high 2nd round and then use their two high 2nd round picks to get three good players including someone like Mahomes, and the best available safety, OT, or TE. That would be a good draft to me. With their good 3rd round pick, they could go CB or WR. Use their two 4ths to bring in a couple of pass rushing linemen and the team could fill a lot of needs.

 

I've thought since the Glennon signing that QB at #3 is no longer on Pace's radar. If that's true and there's a team high on Watson or Trubisky at #3, and assuming Von Miller 2.0 is off the board, we have to trade down, absolutely. And why not be the team that fleeces the desperate team, get their 1st round pick next year as well. It's not a bad position to be in.

 

Mahomes will probably be available at the end of the first round possibly into the second. Texas Tech's offense is garbage for evalutating QB's although your evaluation of him is spot on to me. I wouldn't mind taking him in the 2nd but not high in the first. To many question marks for me. I watched him play a lot this year and was disappointed at times with his performance, especially in the bigger games. The stats are completely irrelevant because of the offense and the fact that his team didn't play defense which required fast scoring shootouts. He really would have to learn how to play real football because he hasn't been playing it at Texas Tech. I like him but he is right there with Kizer for me. Like Trubisky and obviously have pledged my allegiance to Watson but also have become more fond of Davis Webb as I watch him play more.

The biggest fear I have of Trubisky is that the guy has started 13 games. I couldn't be 100% sure that this is the guy I want which means I would have a hard time pulling the trigger on him at number 3. I question why he didn't start sooner if he was good enough to take in the top 5, the starter before him was Marquise Williams, not exactly some kind of superstar. I think he is raw and has the prototypical skills you look for but don't love him enough to take him at 3. At 3, the only QB I would take is Watson. If someone else loved Trubisky and he was still there, I would ask for a Goff/Wentz like trade package and take it.

I won't be mad if the Bears take Trubisky but man is he a big risk, not much film on him and that is how I base these decisions. I wouldn't put my job on the line for him which is what Pace would be doing.

 

But here's where we have to be careful. Realistically right now, we have to see a guy fall to 3 (Garrett, maybe Thomas) that another team absolutely HAS to have.

Yeah, fleecing a team for 1st round future picks is great......But there's gotta be a deal on the table. And if Pace goes looking for a deal because he cant decide what to do--he should be shot.

My fear with Trubisky, is that I feel I've seen his bad side--and its almost as bad as Jay Cutler's. In the draft thread I posted his 2016 ACC game against Virginia Tech--where VTech absolutely had their way with him, created turnovers, got to him, forced him to make some really stupid decisions.

And VTech was a decent team, nothing special in 2016. The had a lot of wins versus 'meh' teams.

[video]https://youtu.be/dA120TR6PNY [/video]

The good part, or more-so promising part of Trubisky, is that he has much more room to learn and grow while Jay....well......beyond likely isn't going to be learning any new tricks going on 34 years old. Trubisky's arm still on display--but this to me tends to have me agreeing with most people that he's not a consensus top pick.

 

Assuming Garret goes #1, Trubisky or Watson or Thomas go #2, one of those three will be available at #3. Pace needs to do his due diligenece to gauge the interest of those guys from other teams.

I agree to the extent that Pace should know who he wants at #3. But it would be foolish not to entertain an offer.

 

I still maintain that the only real chance we have of getting good value in trading out of #3 is if some team falls for Fournette.

IMO there are three possible scenarios for a trade down:

1. A QB. Its always possible a team falls in love with QB and HAS to happen. That said, I simply dont see it this year. Only the Jags and Jets *might* be interested, but I really dont see either team giving up a kings ransom to move up a couple spots.

2. Garrett. Sure, somebody might offer a king's ransom for him. But theres really no way he falls to us and even if he did wouldn't we just pick him?

3. This leaves Fournette.

I dont think a Fournette deal is likely but IMO its the only really plausible trade. Maybe the Panthers feel like he is the difference maker to get them back to the SB from #8? The thinking here is that perhaps many teams would feel like they need to jump the Titans in particular, but the Jags too, in order to secure him.

 

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/mock-drafts
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/mock-draft

patg seems to be in line with quite a few of these "experts", Thomas and Adams are both likely #2 / #3 in some order.

What's interesting is in most of those cases, several of the "big" QBs might be available when the Bears pick in the 2nd.

Honestly I'm finding it hard to believe, like blang, the Bears are even interested in QB at all. But if BPA comes around in Round 2 they might still snag someone. I honestly won't be all that surprised if they don't take a QB at all.

I also don't see the trade down. The Bears don't have a consensus #3 pick and yeah, if Garrett falls, you take him. While I suspect a smartest man in the room pick, if you look at the past drafts, Pace's picks weren't big surprises. Thomas or Adams seems likely.

 

I would agree. Except... Pace named him as the starter.

The key to that statement?

"Pace".

He's not the HC and he's not the OC.

He shouldn't be naming the starter. That's the coaches job. And doing so this early really makes no sense whatsoever. It would indicate he has zero intention of using that #3 pick on a QB.

So he's either cock-blocking his coaching staff.

Or

He's bluffing.

 

It's possible that Pace discussed this with Fox and Loggains and got their blessing to name him the starter. Cuz you're right, the GM doesn't name starters. But given that we know that Fox/Pace seem to work very closely/well together, a point emphasized by George McCaskey several times, it is possible that this has already been agreed on by all parties.

 

Don't disagree.

But why announce it?

He was signed. So, no reason to appease him.

There is no upside at all.

Honestly, I think you have to read between the lines this time of year. Pace might just be finally figuring out how game is played...

 

Yes, but I see Thomas far differently than the typical "experts." They see him as a guy "with a ceiling as high as Miles Garrett, but a floor much lower than MG."

I see a 3-way threat, and I believe he has the athleticism to pull it off. First is his ability to be flexible and go 5 tech. He would play 5 tech in Stanford's 'finesse' offense, and he's got the build and the weight more than a normal 5 tech would. Von Miller is 258 lbs. Solomon Thomas is 275. He could easily put on 10-15 lbs and line up with Hicks and Goldman on the Dline.

Second is another force as an edge rusher. Young, Floyd, Thomas, McPhee, Acho, and Houston. That's a lot of speed in Young and Floyd and Power on top of that with McPhee and Thomas.

Third, and this kind of co-insides with 2nd--but he'd be also insurance if Pernell McPhee's knee just.....fails again. I don't trust his knee to put in 16 games this year. I wont be surprised if he gets 10 games.......

which brings up another thread topic: what to do with McPhee, knowing he's not going to give you a full 16 going forward......what do you do if he only gives you 8-10 games this year?

 

I'm kinda surprised he hasn't been cut already. But I guess we already have so many holes that paying who might give you half the snaps this year 8 million is worth it to Pace.

The guy i was really wondering about was Royal. Then I read this:

?The person I talked to a lot with was Eddie Royal,? Glennon said. ?Eddie went to high school with my brother. They were roommates at Virginia Tech together. So I?ve known Eddie for 15 years now."

 

Draft Thomas at #3 and don't sweat If/when McPhee goes down after 8-10 games.

 

I thought they already cut Eddie Royal.

I dont think Bears Brass has any faith in McPhee either but where they're at right now theres no reason to cut him.

I like Solomon Thomas a lot... But I've simply fallen in love with Allen. Sure its looking like a good safety would be available with our 2nd pick, but in my head i'm committing that to QB.