2016 NFL Draft - The Quarterbacks

Not to be a stirrer of the pot, but...

If you want NFL-ready skill set with a perfect pro game fit who failed to live up to lofty expectations because his college coach/system undermined him, I'd like you to meet Christian:



You're talking about a guy with prototypical size, fantastic arm strength, was the Nation's #1 prospect, and after his true freshman season was anointed a future No. 1 overall pick... all to have it come to pass differently.

Now, I'm not advocating we draft Hackenberg by any means, but it's tough to argue that Hackenberg wouldn't check every box except statistics.

And if the Browns inexplicably pass on Jared Goff at No. 2... then I say he becomes a very real target at No. 32.

 

There's a very real possibility the Browns don't have Goff at #2, either by someone else taking him #1 OR....

Bypassing him for Carson Wentz...word coming out of Alabama is that the Browns are very impressed by him and might have him ahead of Goff on their want list.

 

I got a feeling that Hackenberg is going to be wearing a Texans uniform before the end of the first round.

 

I just don't get how a few practices before a fairly meaningless game (extremely meaningless when you remember Charlie Frye was an MVP his draft year) can change years of tape and in-game experience.

More than likely that's more media speculation and draft posturing.

 

Question is, how many QBs go in the first round in 2016?

It might come down to how many go in the top 10...

Right now, the list of QB needy teams are as follows:

Cleveland Browns #2 overall
San Francisco #7 (unless Chipper is content with Colin Kaepernick)
Philadelphia #13 (If they don't re-sign Sam Bradford, all they have is Mark Sanchez)
St. Louis #15 (Unless Fisher is content with Nick Foles)
[del]NY Jets[/del] #20 (Unless they re-sign Fitzpatrick, which should happen)
[del]Washington[/del] #21 (Unless they are happy with RGIII and/or re-sign Cousins ONE of which should happen)
Houston #22


Then you have another list of SOON TO BE needy teams:

Dallas #4 Romo just can't stay healthy, regardless at 36 years young, the replacement needs to be found very soon.

Miami #8 There are rumblings of issues with Ryan Tannehill. If they decide to/and can move him to another team, they will be in the market early in the draft.

NY Giants #10..won't be in the market this year, but at 35, it would be hard pressed to argue against a new coaching staff wanting to start looking for his replacement soon.

Chicago #11 Cutler's contract pressure will finally be relieved in 2017. He will most likely find himself manning the helm in 2016, but 2017 and beyond I will be shocked if he isn't in another uniform

New Orleans #12 Another Father Time issue with Drew Brees recently turning 37. Regardless of his availability in 2016, his replacement will need to be found soon and there isn't a single person on the roster to even groom for the job.

New England #60 I know, I know, Tom Brady is going to play forever...well Manning thought the same thing and "this might be his last rodeo" (his words, not mine) Tom's 2 years behind Manning, and Tom got his ass kicked this past season..

Arizona #29 How much longer will Palmer be healthy(36 years young)...or trusted after that performance in the Conference Championship?

Denver #? 30-31 Manning is done...They might re-sign Brock Osweiler, but no one knows if he will succeed in a full season. If Manning goes and the Broncos fail to re-sign Osweiler, they will need a QB in the first round of this draft...

That's a lot of needy teams and only a handful of free agents...

 

I don't think it does...what it does do is reinforce what you see in his mechanics from game film in a better environment against better competition than he faced in college.

I see a "better" player in Wentz over Goff...but I won't lie, his level of competition has me worried sick.

As for in-game experience, Goff appeared in 37 games over 3 years in his career at Cal...Wentz appeared in 35 games over 4 years at North Dakota State...The big difference is in attempted passes. Goff had 1569 attempts to Wentz' 612.

But the mechanics are what the pro scouts will be looking at. Any college program can make a "college" QB stat healthy. You have to wade through the muck to find what type of QB you will actually be drafting. This, imho, is where Wentz passes Goff.

It will be interesting to see if either throw at the combine. I would like a healthy competition between them side by side...footwork, release, etc...

 

I didn't want to quote your entire post (keeps it shorter) but you are pretty much dead on with your thoughts and it might be the question of the 2016 draft, which is interesting considering the apparent lack of talent at the position.

Right now I think 4 quarterbacks are going in the first round and possibly a 5th if a team moves up at the bottom to get that extra year on the rookie deal. That puts Hackenberg squarely in the cross-hairs of the Texans.

Goff, Wentz and Lynch will probably go near the top with Cook looking like a potential faller.

 

Better player? Or better prospect?

For me, it's not even a debate. Goff is a much better player and much more ready pro-QB. From a "prospect" standpoint, one could argue that Wentz has the edge in size, arm strength, and mobility.

Goff had 1,568 throws against several future NFL players. Wentz had 612 throws against mostly future substitute teachers and strength and condition coaches.

Heck... twice in his career, Case Keenum had better numbers in one season than Carson Wentz has his whole career.

I'm definitely not denying that Wentz doesn't have an impressive arm and should look great in shorts throwing to uncovered receivers. They both have very good throwing motions, from what I've seen.

Wentz certainly seems to be more of a natural passer, but Goff has much better mechanics.

 

Absolutely crazy how much emphasis is put on the QB position that they'll over-draft players by several rounds, in some cases.

I do think, however, that this is a good class of QBs. I think it just lacks the big name guys (your Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota). I think it's especially good in the R2 - R3 range -- the players you think will move up and get drafted in R1.

The problem is the grade of R2 - R4 means they need seasoning and we've seen time and time again in the NFL teams don't put young QBs in a position to succeed because they're rushed into action too soon.

Hence, my strong affinity for Goff... he's the most pro-ready, so if and/or when the Browns put him in the starting lineup, I think he's got the best chance to succeed.

Heck... he's probably the only one that deserves a true R1 grade.

 

100% Spot on. *BRAVO*

 

I think you are talking about pass rush, not 1 on 1 matchups against DBs...

Who is future NFL players that Goff went against? Maybe a couple of 5th rounders that may never see a starting lineup...

But with that lower talent at DB, Wentz also had to deal with lower talent at WR...but made them look good with his arm..

Look all I am going off of is his footwork and release...the two main contributors to the physical makeup of a QB...I admit I am extremely worried about Wentz', and Goff for that matter, ability to read NFL defenses and adjust at the line. The speed is something that also worries me a great deal...However, Pac-12 play is much slower than SEC play...so that is a worry with Goff as well.

Goff's percentage between the norm in the Pac 12 was about 65.3% completion...

The MOST TROUBLING came against the worst defenses he faced

Against:

Utah #103 against the pass, he completed 53.2% of his passes 25 of 47 attempts, 2 TD/5 INTs...Loss

Oregon #126 against the pass, he completed 43.9% of his passes 18 of 41 attempts, 2 TD/1 INT...Loss

Arizona St #128(dead last) against the pass, he completed 58.8% of his passes 30 of 51 attempts, 5 TD/O INT...Won 48-46


In winning games, his percentage was very high. When faced with adversity, came his lowest percentage games...

That is a bit worrisome for a team who averages 4 wins over the past 15 years...



So, when we are talking about competition as a factor in the decision...NEITHER should be considered for the #2 overall pick...

 

It will b nother laughing stock if the Browns take Wentz at #2....just a complete debacle

 

Kinda like you...

 

Cmon Irish u know damn well whoever takes Wentz at #2 will get made fun of everyday....media will have a field day w that pick...u can try and justify it anyway u want, but a small school QB going #2 in the draft is absolutely crazy

 

The media started talking about it well before I did...The kid has all the physical tools to be a NFL QB. He also doesn't show signs of a low football IQ. How he ended up at an FCS school? Who knows...He did end up at the absolute best FCS school in the country. That team could probably beat many BCS schools, possibly even a top 25 team or two...They obviously don't have the man power to compete in a BCS power conference, but they are head and shoulders above the FCS competition, as their 5 National Championships in a row indicate.

There is a list of top NFL players that came from this level:
Jared Allen
Joe Flacco
Marquess Colston
Vincent Jackson
Tony Romo
London Fletcher


Point is, FCS does have some great players hiding in it...It's just a little tougher to find the needle in the haystack. BUT, if there is one that gets identified, it doesn't mean you should wait for another team to take advantage of him.

I'm not going yo pretend to know what the recruiting process is, but I think it might have gone something like this for Wentz...

A long list of second tier BCS schools, like maybe the MAC schools or equivalent. Then you have the HC of the most decorated FCS school in the country giving you an opportunity to lead your team to a National Championship...As a competitor, do you choose the school that has very little chance of even making a major bowl game, let alone the 4 team playoffs system..or the school that is at the very peak of the FCS world? Very likely, the North Dakota State coaching staff is a higher level than many of these other BCS schools...He made a decision based on SOMETHING and now he is being considered a first round NFL draft pick.

Like I've said before, the speed of the game scares the hell out of me when it comes to drafting Wentz...but that same issue creeps into my mind when it comes to Goff.


(edit One last thing...I'm not the only one who sees something in Wentz...He was invited to the Senior Bowl, not the East West Shrine Game..I'm sitting here cringing through the Shrine game again for some odd reason before I delete it from the DVR and there isn't a lot of talent on showcase here. This kid has skills and everyone wants to see them on display. There are a LOT of scouts, GMS, etc that are anxious to see what his skills are against higher competition, because he has shown what he can do on the lower level and it looks real good on film. Doesn't always translate, but if it does, he could EASILY be the best QB to come out of this draft.

 

This isn't about Barrett, It's about Jones. Jones can't read defenses. OSU had faster and better WRs than most teams in the country. So Meyer went deep because of Jones's arm strength. Which also opened up Zeke to run the ball. I would take Hogan before Jones. I can name 3 to 4 QBs I would take ahead of Jones. Geoff, Lynch, Wentz, Hogan then Hackenberg and Cook. So I guess I would take 6 QBs ahead of him. But for a 4th or 5th rd pick then why not? The Browns just don't have the talent yet to make him successful.

 

I never once said FCS schools cant produce talent....all I said is he wont go #2 and if he does the media will have a field day...who was the last kid 2 go top 5 and not b from a major Div 1 school?

 

You really want to use a history lesson to determine who becomes the next QB of the Browns?

Joe Flacco went #18...Do you think Miami would trade Jake Long for Joe Flacco right now...even after drafting Ryan Tannehill in 2012? That was the #1 Overall pick of the draft...Flacco is arguably the best QB from that draft (albeit s weak QB draft class), even with Matt Ryan picked at #3.

SO...the moral of THIS story? I don't give a Flying you know what about the media or any other outside influence on what is SAID about the draft...If we are in fact drafting a QB, I want the best one in this draft class...not who the media wants them to take.

But, along THOSE lines...the media is talking with scouts, many of which are putting Carson Wentz as the top QB in this class, so by the time April rolls around, mark my words...they will be EXPECTING the Browns to take him at #2.

 

I dont know who the next Browns QB will b, but I sure hope its not Wentz at #2...it will all settle down w his hype by April....I guess he had a few good practices at a Sr Bowl so now hes a top 5 pick....its crazy how they over hype some of these players...Paxton Lynch was going top 5 until he ran across a real defense in Auburn and that cooled that talk real quick...I said from mid season there is NO franchise QB in this draft and 2 bad Manziel messed up so much or else some other franchise wuld gamble w these lower level QBs

 

Steve McNair?