2018 . . . The Race for the #1 Pick.

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by Lyman, Oct 11, 2017.

  1. Lyman "Franchise Curmudgeon" Patreon Champion Indians Browns Buckeyes

    As the 2017 season progresses, I'll try to update the 2018 Draft order (for the top 5 picks) based on current records, Opponent's records and any other tie-breakers that may eventually come into play. That said, here's where it stands after week 5:

    1. New York Giants 0-5-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.368) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.474

    2. Cleveland Browns 0-5-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.400) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.475

    3. San Francisco 49ers 0-5-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.450) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.410

    4. Los Angeles Chargers 1-4-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.556) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.513

    5. Chicago Bears 1-4-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.611) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.462
     
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  2. firehalo Legend Penguins Steelers

    G-men just took another big step forward too. DRC just walked out of practice, will be suspended by the team. Eli Apple not happy for his demotion, and Collins defended DRC on "an altercation" with HC McAdoo.
     
  3. Underdog Franchise Player Patriots

    And so naturally they smashed the Broncos in Denver lol. Sports.

    Chargers and Bears win, pretty much down to the Browns and 9ers now.

    Good thing the Browns didn't want Wentz or Watson lolol.
     
  4. dlinebass5 Franchise Player Bears

    C'mon, Underdog. It's all about the metrics. They'll see the Browns through... Eventually...
    :confused::dum:

    It's the Browns and 49'ers, now, but it's a long season. Chicago will likely accept another one or two wins from teams that have zero desire to win, themselves. They also play San Fran and Cleveland, so there's a chance for either of those teams to get a win. Will the Giants do anything more, this year?

    You want to give the Browns' staff another year or two to show progress. But they've deserved every bit of criticism.
     
  5. Lyman "Franchise Curmudgeon" Patreon Champion Indians Browns Buckeyes

    Week 6 is in the books and there have been a few changes. Due to the number of teams with only 2 wins, I will start listing the top ten picks based on current metrics;

    1. Cleveland Browns 0-6-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.369) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.500

    2. San Francisco 49ers
    0-6-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.464) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.463

    3. New York Giants
    1-5-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.444) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.511

    4. Indianapolis Colts
    2-4-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.310) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.538

    5. Oakland Raiders
    2-4-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.464) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.590

    6. Los Angeles Chargers
    2-4-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.536) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.511

    7. Chicago Bears
    2-4-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.571) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.425

    8. Cincinnati Bengals
    2-3-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.417) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.462

    9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    2-3-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.440) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.591

    10. Dallas Cowboys
    2-3-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.500) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.511​
     
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  6. Lyman "Franchise Curmudgeon" Patreon Champion Indians Browns Buckeyes

    Through week 7. . . a couple of changes in the top 10.

    1. Cleveland Browns 0-7-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.375) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.537

    2. San Francisco 49ers
    0-7-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.436) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.500

    3. New York Giants
    1-6-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.486) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.556

    4. Indianapolis Colts
    2-5-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.366) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.526
    5. Cincinnati Bengals 2-4-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.441) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.478

    6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-4-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.486) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.556
    7. Arizona Cardinals 3-4-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.436) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.375

    8. Baltimore Ravens
    3-4-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.439) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.513

    9. New York Jets
    3-4-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.485) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.533
    10. Oakland Raiders 3-4-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.500) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.590
    Three more teams are at 3-4-0 - Chargers, Bears and Cowboys. They would be drafting 11th, 12th and 13th respectively based on opponents W/L record.
     
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  7. Lyman "Franchise Curmudgeon" Patreon Champion Indians Browns Buckeyes

    I just now noticed . . .

    Three teams in the "top" ten are in the AFC north.
     
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  8. firehalo Legend Penguins Steelers

    I hear ya. Check out my Steelers/Bengals Good Bad Ugly on the Steelers board.
     
  9. SAS Franchise Player Browns

    And we're 0-9 against them in the last two seasons.
     
  10. Lyman "Franchise Curmudgeon" Patreon Champion Indians Browns Buckeyes

    Through week 8. . . a couple of changes in the top 10.

    1. Cleveland Browns 0-8-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.434) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.459

    2. San Francisco 49ers
    0-8-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.510) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.389

    3. New York Giants
    1-6-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.477) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.581

    4. Indianapolis Colts
    2-6-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.360) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.568
    5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-5-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.522) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.535

    6. New York Jets
    3-5-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.500) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.595​

    7. Oakland Raiders
    3-5-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.500) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.590

    8. Los Angeles Chargers 3-5-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.596) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.523

    9. Chicago Bears 3-5-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.436) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.342

    10. Arizona Cardinals
    3-4-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.422) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.349

    Five more teams are at 3-4-0 - Bengals, Broncos, Texans, Lions and Redskins. They would be drafting 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th and 15th respectively based on opponents W/L record.
     
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  11. SAS Franchise Player Browns

    For the tracker... Giants/49ers this week. Big implications for the draft.
     
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  12. Lyman "Franchise Curmudgeon" Patreon Champion Indians Browns Buckeyes

    Through week 9. . .

    1. Cleveland Browns 0-8-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.441) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.475

    2. San Francisco 49ers
    0-9-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.552) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.375

    3. New York Giants
    1-7-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.509) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.634

    4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    2-6-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.544) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.488

    5. Indianapolis Colts
    3-6-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.391) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.545

    6. Cincinnati Bengals
    3-5-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.431) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.424​

    7. Houston Texans [CLE] 3-5-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.483) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.424

    8T. Los Angeles Chargers 3-5-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.529) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.525

    8T. Denver Broncos 3-5-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.529) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.480

    10. Chicago Bears
    3-5-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.569) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.357
    With 7 or 8 games yet to go, The 49ers allegedly helped their chances for a win by acquiring QB, Jimmy Garappolo, while the Browns will finish the season with the QB's on their current roster. Combine that with the 49ers' easier remaining schedule, and it is difficult to see how Cleveland will not end up with #1 overall pick. ​

     
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  13. Will Hall-of-Fame Staff Member Official Vikings Redwings

    I'm leaning Cleveland also, but the way the New York Giants looked last weekend, they could be big players also.
     
  14. dlinebass5 Franchise Player Bears

    Outside of the top (bottom) 3, there's a lot of shifting that's going to happen, in there.

    Crazy to see the Broncos at 3 wins. The Bucs only at 2 isn't unsurprising, neither is the Giants at 1 win.
     
  15. LAOJoe Hall-of-Fame Staff Member Head Official Maple Leafs Eagles

    I remember all that talk about how Tampa was a real contender and a for sure playoff team. I didn't believe it in the slightest. I had them in last. Look at all the people that picked them in the suicide game. After being 2-1 through 4 weeks everyone was even more on the hype train. They haven't won since.
     
  16. Lyman "Franchise Curmudgeon" Patreon Champion Indians Browns Buckeyes

    The Giants have, by far, the hardest remaining schedule. But, for them to knock Cleveland out of the #1 pick, the Browns would probably have to win two more games and I have a hard time finding even 1 win in their remaining schedule.
     
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  17. Lyman "Franchise Curmudgeon" Patreon Champion Indians Browns Buckeyes

    Through week 10. . .

    1. Cleveland Browns 0-9-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.446) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.472

    2. San Francisco 49ers
    1-9-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.493) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.417 (Bye week 11)

    3. New York Giants
    1-8-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.452) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.667

    4. Indianapolis Colts
    3-7-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.444) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.444 (Bye week 11)

    5. Cincinnati Bengals
    3-6-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.452) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.391

    6. Houston Texans [CLE]
    3-6-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.521) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.432

    7. Denver Broncos
    3-6-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.524) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.500

    8. Los Angeles Chargers
    3-6-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.524) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.500

    9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    3-6-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.527) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.528

    10. Chicago Bears
    3-6-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.609) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.370
    Assuming the NY Giants lose to the KC Chiefs in week 11, the Giants would then move to the #2 spot and the Niners would fall to the #3 spot after their Bye week. ​
     
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  18. Lyman "Franchise Curmudgeon" Patreon Champion Indians Browns Buckeyes

    Through week 11. . . The last of the Bye Weeks.

    1. Cleveland Browns 0-10-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.500) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.400

    2. San Francisco 49ers
    1-9-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.475) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.450

    3. New York Giants 2-8-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.478) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.700

    4. Indianapolis Colts
    3-7-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.444) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.433

    5. Denver Broncos
    3-7-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.500) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.375

    6. Chicago Bears
    3-7-0 Opponents W/L record: (0.625) Remaining Opponents W/L record = 0.350

    Nine teams ( ARI, CIN, NYJ, OAK, HOU [CLE], MIA, TB, LAC and WAS ) are all tied at 4-6-0. As it stands today, Arizona would have the 7th pick, Cincy the 8th pick, Jets the 9th pick and so on in the order listed.

     
    Will likes this.
  19. SAS Franchise Player Browns

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